Forget the presidential race: Statehouses are where the action is
President Biden and former president Donald Trump will spend the next eight months battling over six states that are likely to determine the presidential election: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Several of those states are also at the center of a battleground that’s gotten much less attention: the fight for control of state legislatures.
- Democrats are trying to flip the state House and Senate in Arizona after Democrat Katie Hobbs won the governorship in 2022, giving the party control of state government.
- In Pennsylvania, Republicans are working to flip a single seat to retake the state House, which Democrats won in 2022.
- And Republicans are seeking to recapture the state House and state Senate in Michigan, which Democrats won in 2022, allowing Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer to pass her agenda through the legislature.
The latest battleground is Wisconsin, where Democratic Gov. Tony Evers signed new maps into law last month that both parties agree will allow Democrats to win more seats in November. “I think we can win the Assembly,” Evers told us last month.
- The new maps mean “it’ll be difficult, but it’ll be equally difficult on both sides,” he added.
Taking back the Wisconsin Senate will be tougher because only half the seats are up for reelection this year, with the other half up in 2026.
But Evers said he hopes that taking back the Assembly and narrowing Republicans’ margin in the state Senate might allow him to achieve his top priority: expanding Medicaid in the state. Wisconsin is one of 10 states that haven’t expanded Medicaid since the Affordable Care Act provisions allowing states to cover more residents under the program took effect a decade ago.
“I know there are Republicans that understand the issue of Medicaid expansion who I’ve talked to,” Evers said. “Can we pick off a couple of ones to get that done? Absolutely.”
Robin Vos, the longtime Assembly speaker, scoffed at the idea Democrats would win back the chamber.
- “We consistently see that Republican Assembly members outrun the top of the ticket by anywhere from three to six points,” Vos said. “So if Wisconsin is again a 50-50 state, either won by President Trump or won by President Biden, that means we’ll probably win most of the competitive races.”
Still, Republicans’ margins will depend to some extent on how strong Trump and Biden run, he said.
Assembly Minority Leader Greta Neubauer said Democrats heard from more than 100 people interested in running for the Assembly in the first week after Evers signed the new maps.
Biden carried 49 of the 99 newly drawn Assembly districts in 2020, according to Wisconsin Democrats — but Evers carried 52 when he won reelection in 2022. Control of the Assembly could come down to which party does a better job of running ahead of the top of the ticket.
But state legislative candidates’ door-knocking could also help Biden or Trump carry Wisconsin.
“We understand that everyone who we get out to the ballot is very likely to vote for Sen. Tammy Baldwin and President Joe Biden, as well,” Neubauer said. “They understand that they want to see our candidates be successful, too. So I think we do all see our fates as tied.”
Heather Williams, president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which coordinates the party’s efforts in state legislative races across the country, has not gone as far as Evers in predicting Democrats can retake the Assembly. The DLCC is assessing the new maps, she said.
“We’ve got opportunities to make real, meaningful gains,” Williams told us.
Democrats are prioritizing state legislatures after gerrymandering helped Republicans win unified control of the governorship and the legislature in 23 states by 2014, while Democrats controlled only seven. Republicans still control 23 state capitals, but Democrats are in control in 17 states now. (Nine state capitals are under divided control, while Nebraska’s legislature is nonpartisan.)
Along with races in swing states, Democrats’ top targets this cycle are holding on to their majorities in the Minnesota House and retaking control of both chambers in New Hampshire. They’re also seeking to break Republicans’ veto-proof legislative majorities in Kansas and North Carolina, both of which have Democratic governors, and make gains in Georgia and other states.
The Republican State Leadership Committee didn’t respond to a request for comment.
But in a January memo, the RSLC argued Republicans need to invest more in early and mail voting.
- “The days of complacency have come to an end,” the memo reads. “Democrats were able to overtake our largest ever investment into Virginia by committing to spend over $7 million dollars in three weeks down the final stretch of the Virginia elections. The only way to defend our majorities, reclaim majorities, and grow our party is direct investment into state legislative races to counter outside national liberal groups who are pouring more money into the states year after year.”
Arizona: A super battleground
There are few places where the fights for control of Washington and state legislatures align more than in Tucson’s northern suburbs.
- Arizona is a presidential swing state.
- There’s a crucial race for the seat Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) is relinquishing.
- Freshman Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R) is running for reelection in a district Biden barely won in 2020.
- Abortion rights advocates are working to get a measure on the ballot.
- And Democrats are targeting state House and Senate seats in the 17th District.
Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly and Hobbs carried the 17th District when they won in 2022, and Democrats are making it a top target this year. The party needs to flip only two seats in the state House and two in the Senate to win a trifecta (as it’s called when one party controls the governorship and the legislature).
Kevin Volk, a housing developer who’s running for state House as a Democrat, started knocking on doors in January and estimates he’s hit about 500 so far. He’s emphasizing three issues in his campaign: abortion rights, water and education.
- “Arizona politically seems like the belle of the ball for the first time,” Volk said, referring to the competitive races at the state and federal levels. “And that’s translated to a lot of on-the-ground enthusiasm.”
It’s budget day! President Biden is set to release his annual budget this morning. The budget, which never becomes law, is as much a political document as it is a road map for Congress in a presidential reelection year. (Yes, the budget is coming out even though Congress still has to pass the final six appropriations bills for the current fiscal year, which is nearly half over.)
Biden’s budget will lay out his vision with new programs and highlighting new priorities. It will “lower costs for families, protect and strengthen Social Security and Medicare, and reduce the deficit by about $3 trillion over ten years by making big corporations and the wealthy pay their fair share,” according to a White House official.
To reduce the deficit, Biden’s budget proposes to raise taxes on corporations and ensure billionaires pay a minimum tax of 25 percent. It also aims to reduce costs for families for child care, housing, prescription drugs and college, all of which he laid out in his State of the Union address last week.
Biden hits the campaign trail: Biden has a busy week of campaigning in battleground states. He heads to Manchester, N.H., today for a campaign event on lowering costs for American families and a fundraiser.
Tuesday, he’ll hold a campaign event with the Teamsters and host President Andrzej Duda and Prime Minister Donald Tusk of Poland. Wednesday, he’ll travel to Milwaukee, where he’ll talk about American manufacturing and hold a fundraiser. Thursday, he’ll hold a fundraiser in Saginaw, Mich.
Friday, he’ll continue a St. Patrick’s Day tradition and meet with Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar before attending the Friends of Ireland Speaker Luncheon at the Capitol.
Government funding: Congressional negotiators are continuing to work on finding agreement on the final six appropriations bills before funding runs out on March 22. Sources tell us that the Homeland Security funding bill, which pays for the border, is a complete disaster and is nowhere close to being done. It’s highly unlikely it will be done in the next two weeks, so the question is whether lawmakers are willing to pass a funding extension for that bill or allow for that agency to shut down.
TikTok: The House is going to vote on a bill that would force TikTok, owned by the Chinese company ByteDance, to cut ties with China’s government. The legislation passed out of the House Energy Committee last week 50-0, a rare show of bipartisanship.
Robert Hur: Special counsel Robert Hur will testify before the House Judiciary Committee on Tuesday about his investigation into Biden’s alleged mishandling of classified documents. Hur is expected to defend the use of special counsels — intended to make high-profile investigations as apolitical as possible — and reveal how Attorney General Merrick Garland’s reliance (“overreliance,” according to Biden aides) on special counsels has inflamed tensions between the White House and the Justice Department, per our colleagues Perry Stein and Tyler Pager.
Democratic Senate group reserves $239 million in ads to defend seats in seven states
NEW: “Senate Majority PAC, an independent group associated with Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.), announced Monday the reservation of nearly a quarter of a billion dollars worth of television advertising in seven states starting this summer — a massive investment aimed at attempting to maintain control of the chamber by a razor-thin margin,” our colleague Michael Scherer reports. The states include: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona. The group previously announced spending in Montana and Nevada.
“The retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) has given Republicans an all but certain net gain in the Senate, where the Democratic caucus now controls a bare majority of 51 seats out of 100. With no clear chances to take Republican seats, Senate Democrats are focused on defending seven Democratic-held states and maintaining control of the White House, which would give a Democratic vice president the tiebreaking vote.”
Trump’s freewheeling speeches offer a dark vision of a second term
Our colleagues Ashley Parker, Marianne LeVine and Ross Godwin examine the ways in which Donald Trump “has transformed the American public’s conception of a political rally” into a “freewheeling extravaganza” where themes of election denialism, revisionism, victimization and persecution are central.
Ashley, Marianne and Ross took a look at one stump speech in Rock Hill, S.C., delivered the day before the state’s GOP primary. Here’s what they discovered:
The hallmarks of a Trump speech: “Like many of his recent speeches, it was long and laden with resentments, offering a dark vision for the nation that terrifies Democrats and animates his Republican base,” our colleagues write. “It touched on recurring themes, including his election denialism, his promise of a sudden transformation in another Trump term and his claims of persecution and martyrdom. … Themes of retribution and vengeance are also central, hovering like an ominous storm cloud.”
Clues for a second term: “Perhaps more importantly, Trump’s stump speech provides a road map of what a second Trump term might look like — fulfilling his promises to root out the so-called ‘deep state’ of civil servants, harshly cracking down on illegal immigration and crime, and pulling back from the world stage. It also reveals many of his weaknesses as a candidate, such as sometimes slurring his words, confusing names of world leaders and attacking minorities in offensive ways.”
Many falsehoods and mistruths: “Over time, his stump speech has evolved, though certain hallmarks remain. One constant is that it is certain to contain a slew of falsehoods and mistruths, ranging from hyperbole to outright lies, like his false claim that the 2020 election was stolen. The Washington Post Fact Checker found that in the four years of his presidency, Trump offered a total of 30,573 untruths — an average of roughly 21 erroneous claims a day.”
- How the Oscars addressed wars in Ukraine and Gaza and the Hollywood strikes. By the Los Angeles Times’s Mark Olsen.
- Gaza begins Ramadan with no cease-fire. By the New York Times’s Adam Rasgon and Hwaida Saad.
Happy Monday! You are Kenough.
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