In a shocking move, French President Emmanuel Macron has announced that parliamentary elections will be held within the next 30 days. What happened? Why? And what will happen next?
What's the story?
The French president announced surprise general elections on Sunday night after his party suffered a crushing defeat in the European Parliament elections to Marine Le Pen's far-right Rally National (RN) party.
According to usually accurate forecasts, Macron's centrist list, led by MEP Valérie Heyer, received 14.8% to 15.2% support in the European polls, less than half the 32% to 33% support of the RN, whose leading candidate was the party's leader, Jordan Bardella, 28.
The president was re-elected in 2022. His current term runs until the spring of 2027 and he cannot run again.
What was Macron's reason?
The president called the decision “serious and weighty” but said he could not accept the fact that “far-right parties are gaining strength everywhere on the continent”.
The prime minister described it as an “act of trust” and said he had faith in French voters and “the ability of the French people to make the best choices for themselves and for future generations”.
Macron added: “I believe in our democracy, in the right of sovereign people to have their say. I have heard your messages, your concerns and I will not fail to respond to them.”
The French president's centrist coalition lost its parliamentary majority in the 2022 elections and has since resorted to using a controversial constitutional tool known as 49/3 to force bills through parliament without a vote.
Analysts have long predicted the prime minister faces tough challenges in parliament following his heavy defeat to the RN in the European elections, with the possibility of a vote of no confidence or even the collapse of his government.
But the stakes are high in Sunday's dramatic move. It could mean further defeats for Macron's party, effectively thwarting the remainder of his presidency and handing Marine Le Pen even more power. The president presented it as an existential choice for French voters: Do we really want the far right to rule?
It seems unlikely that he expects to secure a majority. Republican Front, The Republican Party, which in the past blocked the RN's advances, has been weakened to the point of almost disappearing, and Macron's popularity has been steadily declining.
But most analysts predict that while far-right parties may emerge with more lawmakers, they probably won't win enough seats to command a majority, meaning the next parliament could be even more chaotic and inefficient than the current one.
He may be hoping to neutralise the “coexistence effect”: if the RN performs well and, say, Bardella becomes prime minister, two and a half years in power might be just enough time to make the far right unpopular as well.
When and how will the election take place?
Article 12 of the French Constitution gives the president the power to dissolve Parliament. National Assembly To resolve political crises such as permanent and irreconcilable differences between the Legislature and the Executive;
Voters must be called to the polls within 20 to 40 days of dissolving Parliament. The first round of elections is scheduled for June 30, the second for July 7. Given that the Olympic Games are due to be held in Paris at the end of July, it's set to be a busy few weeks for Macron.
How did the National Rally respond?
Bardella was one of the first to urge Macron to call early parliamentary elections, telling supporters after the forecast was released that French voters had “expressed their desire for change.” “The country has passed a verdict and there is no room for appeal,” he said.
“We can only welcome this decision, which is in line with the logic of the Fifth Republic's institutions,” said Le Pen, the party's leader and presidential candidate. She said her party was “ready to take power if the French people place their trust in us in the upcoming parliamentary elections.”
“We are ready to put the country back on its feet,” she said, “and to defend the interests of the French people.”
Is there precedent for a premature presidential dissolution?
Previous presidents have dissolved parliament in 1962, 1968, 1981 and 1988, but at the time, presidential terms were seven years but parliament's terms were only five, meaning the head of state often faced opposition in parliament.
It hasn't always worked in their favour: In 1997, then-centre-right President Jacques Chirac called surprise parliamentary elections, but the left ultimately won a majority, and he endured five years of “coexistence”.
No president has dissolved Parliament since, in part because presidential and parliamentary terms were synchronized in 2000 and, until Macron was re-elected, voters had given each new president a parliamentary majority ever since.
