- Fired researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner has published a 165-page essay on the future of AI.
- Aschenbrenner’s paper discusses the rapid advances in AI, their security implications, and their impact on society.
- Here's what GPT-4 thinks about Aschenbrenner's predictions:
Several employees have left OpenAI in recent months due to concerns about the company's approach to security.
Beyond the terse withdrawal announcement about X, not much has been said about OpenAI's development approach or why it is concerned about the future of AI.
That was until earlier this week, when Leopold Aschenbrenner, a researcher who was fired from OpenAI in April, published his thoughts on the AI revolution in an epic 165-page paper.
Aschenbrenner worked on OpenAI's superalignment team. — It was tasked with mitigating AI risks. Aschenbrenner said he was fired by OpenAI for leaking information about the company's preparations for artificial general intelligence.
Aschenbrenner, meanwhile, said the information he shared was “totally normal” and that OpenAI may have just been looking for a reason to fire him. He was one of several employees who refused to sign a letter calling for CEO Sam Altman's reinstatement. The board temporarily removed Altman from his position last year.
Aschenbrenner's essay appear It contains no confidential information about OpenAI; instead, as Aschenbrenner writes on the dedication page, it is based on “publicly available information, my own ideas, general field knowledge, or science fiction rumors.”
Uploaded by Business Insider We submitted our paper to OpenAI's GPT-4 model and asked the bot to summarize our work and convey the most important points. We also gently asked the bot to make the summary clear and concise.
Below is ChatGPT's 57-word summary of Aschenbrenner's essay.
ChatGPT summarized the essay in 57 words, outlining Aschenbrenner’s views on the evolution of AI.
“Leopold Aschenbrenner's essay discusses the transformative potential of artificial general intelligence (AGI) and superintelligence, predicting major advances in AI technology in the near future. Formerly of OpenAI, Aschenbrenner outlines that based on trends in computational power and algorithmic efficiency, the evolution of current AI models such as GPT-4 to AGI could happen much faster than expected.”
ChatGPT introduced four key points: Aschenbrenner's essays
Rapid advances in AI
“Aschenbrenner argues that AI development is accelerating at an unprecedented rate. He predicts that by 2027, AI models will reach the capabilities of human AI researchers and engineers, potentially resulting in an intelligence explosion in which AI surpasses human intelligence.”
Economic and security impacts
“The essay highlights the enormous economic and security implications of these advances. Aschenbrenner points out that trillions of dollars are being invested in developing the infrastructure needed to support these AI systems, including GPUs, data centers, and power generation. He also stresses the critical importance of protecting these technologies to prevent them from being misused, especially by state actors like the Chinese Communist Party.”
Technical and ethical challenges
“Technical and ethical challenges: The essay discusses a significant challenge in controlling AI systems that are smarter than humans, which it calls the “superalignment” problem. Managing this is crucial to prevent catastrophic outcomes.”
Predictions and social impacts
“Aschenbrenner points out that few people truly understand the scale of change that AI will bring. He discusses its potential to reshape industries, strengthen national security, and raise new ethical and governance challenges.”
There's still more.
As Aschenbrenner wrote, there are probably only a few hundred people with “situational awareness” of the industry, most of whom are affiliated with the San Francisco AI lab. These people are likely to have the deepest insight into how AI will change the world in the future.
Aschenbrenner is among those who believe AI will play a key role in national security.
Following our initial prompt, we asked ChatGPT to summarize the predictions Aschenbrenner made in his essay.
Here's ChatGPT's analysis:
- AGI by 2027: “Highlighting the rapid progress from GPT-2 to GPT-4, which saw AI models evolve from kindergarten level to the capabilities of a smart high school student in just four years, Aschenbrenner predicts that artificial general intelligence (AGI) will become startlingly achievable by 2027. He expects a similar leap will occur in the coming years, driven by steady improvements in computing and algorithmic efficiency.”
- AGI followed by superintelligence: “Beyond AGI, the authors predict an 'intelligence explosion' in which AI will rapidly progress from human-level to superhuman capabilities. This transition is expected to be facilitated by AI's ability to automate and accelerate its own research and development.”
- Trillion-dollar AI cluster: “Economically, Aschenbrenner suggests that the AI sector will see increased investment in trillion-dollar computing clusters as companies and governments prepare for the impact of AGI and superintelligence.”
- National and Global Security Trends: “There are predictions that strong national security measures will be put in place to manage and control AI development, particularly as competition with the Chinese government intensifies and, if not properly managed, could lead to 'all-out war.'”
- Superalignment Challenges: “One of the most important predictions is the struggle with 'superalignment' – the challenge of keeping superintelligent AI aligned with human values and interests. This issue is expected to be one of the main obstacles as AI reaches and surpasses human intelligence levels.”
- Social and economic transformation: “Aschenbrenner predicts that AI will have a profound impact on society and the economy, potentially leading to a restructuring of industries and job markets due to its ability to perform tasks currently managed by humans.”
- U.S. Government Project Involvement: “Due to the strategic importance of AI technology, it is predicted that the US government will become significantly more involved in AI development through a dedicated AGI project by around 2027-2028.”
- Technology mobilization: “He foresees a mobilization of technological and industrial resources similar to historic wartime efforts and has focused on AI and its supporting infrastructure as a national policy priority.”
Here's the full prompt we used:
Role: Acts as editor. Assignment: Read the attached essay about former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner. Instructions:
- Summarize the essay and highlight the most important points.
- It focuses on major contributions, areas of research, and notable impacts on the field.
- The abstract should be concise yet comprehensive, providing a clear understanding of Aschenbrenner's achievements and influence.
