Millions of Venezuelans turned out to vote on Sunday in a tough presidential election in which socialist incumbent Nicolas Maduro faces the biggest challenge yet to his party's 25-year hold on power.
Maduro, 61, is seeking a third six-year term at the helm of a once-wealthy oil nation that has seen its gross domestic product fall by 80 percent in the decade since he took office and forced more than seven million of its 30 million people to emigrate.
In power since 2013, he has been accused of jailing critics and harassing the opposition during an increasingly authoritarian era.
Independent polls suggest Sunday's vote could bring an end to 25 years of “Chavismo,” the populist movement founded by Maduro's socialist predecessor and leader, the late President Hugo Chavez.
But analysts say the president is unlikely to concede defeat to opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, who is expected to win by a landslide.
“I hope they don't steal the election, they always do that,” voter Mercedes Henriques, 68, told AFP in Caracas ahead of the vote.
And what if? “Well, we have to get out there and vote. For my vote. For my children.” Two of her grandchildren live overseas, as do her six grandchildren.
Maduro had previously warned of a “bloody catastrophe” if he lost, but on Sunday he said he would “ensure” that the final results from the pro-regime CNE electoral commission were “honored.”
Nonetheless, CNE President Elvis Amoroso described the opposition as “the enemies of Venezuela.”
– “We're ready to defend.” –
Based on its own vote count, the administration claims victory over González Urrutia, a 74-year-old former diplomat who was reluctantly thrust into the top opposition candidate spot after the movement's hugely popular leader, Maria Corina Machado, was disqualified.
President Maduro relies on loyal electoral bodies, military leadership and state institutions, with a well-established system of political patronage.
Gonzalez Urrutia said Sunday that the opposition was “ready to defend” the vote and believed “our forces will respect the decision of the people.”
Machado said turnout could be “historic,” citing figures that more than nine million people had voted by lunchtime.
Voting officially closed 12 hours later at 6pm (22:00 GMT), but anyone still in line could still vote.
AFP saw long queues just hours before voting began.
Analysts told AFP that a higher turnout would favour the opposition and make it harder for Maduro's government to fudge the numbers, something it has been accused of doing in the past.
– Watching “very closely” –
Sunday's election was the result of a deal reached last year between the government and opposition with the backing of the U.S., which temporarily eased sanctions imposed after Maduro's 2018 reelection was rejected by Western countries and most of Latin America as a sham election.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Sunday urged all parties involved to “respect the democratic process” and said the international community would be “monitoring this matter very closely.”
Washington is keen to restore stability to Venezuela, an ally of Cuba, Russia and China, which boasts the world's largest oil reserves but a severely weakened production capacity.
The South American country's economic woes are a major contributing factor to migration pressures at the U.S. southern border.
“It is clear that if Maduro takes power through force and violence, in a very short period of time we will see a much bigger wave and we will see 3, 4, 5 million Venezuelans or more leave the country,” Machado said after voting in Caracas.
“The problem here goes beyond our borders, beyond Venezuela,” she added.
Most Venezuelans survive on just a few dollars a month, the country's health and education systems are in ruins and people suffer from severe electricity and fuel shortages.
The government blames sanctions, but observers point to corruption and government inefficiency.
A Venezuelan NGO said Friday that Caracas was holding 305 “political prisoners” and had arrested 135 people linked to the opposition movement since January.
Concerns about the fairness of the vote were further heightened by Caracas' last-minute decision to block the entry of international monitors, including four former Latin American presidents, whose plane was stranded in Panama on Friday.
An invitation to European Union monitors was revoked weeks ago. Only a small delegation from the U.S.-based Carter Center was allowed into the country, along with a United Nations panel of experts who will deliver a confidential report.
About 21 million people are registered to vote in Venezuela, but only an estimated 17 million people are still eligible to vote in the country.
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