Kamala Harris' vice presidential candidate is in the spotlight

Vice President Harris' selection of a running mate is at a critical juncture.

Nominations are scheduled to close on August 7, when the Democratic Party will formally nominate its candidate and ensure that Harris takes the top spot after President Biden withdraws. However, the nomination could be made before the deadline, as it has just been reported that Harris plans to tour battleground states next week with her nomination in hand.

Meanwhile, the candidates have essentially sprinted ahead to campaign for Harris, which has been a remarkable spectacle in itself: They've hosted virtual and on-the-campaign events for her, dominated the airwaves with media appearances, and many of them seem to be advocating not just for her but for themselves as well.

With the race heating up and two candidates announcing on Monday that they are not running, Harris' choice has become clear, so I thought now would be a good time to update my previous predictions with the latest information.

Candidate with momentum: Waltz

No one has risen in popularity in the past week more than Minnesota Governor Tim Walz (Democrat). Walz was previously considered a dark horse for the governorship. He has made numerous media appearances, touting his rural roots and down-to-earth appeal, and has catapulted himself into the spotlight. Perhaps no one has “campaigned” for the governorship more than he has.

But subtly, and perhaps Waltz's most useful talking point, he planted the most talked-about claim in Democratic circles: that the Republican candidate is “weird.” Waltz seemed to stumble upon the claim a week ago, but it quickly took hold.

Another Messenger Candidate: Buttigieg

As much as the running mate choice is aimed at taking on Republicans, Walz has a real rival for the seat: Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who appears frequently on television and radio.

While Waltz is a rising star, Buttigieg has been doing this sort of thing for years, even going so far as to appear on Fox News to feud with hosts. In an appearance last Sunday, Buttigieg rejected comments made by Fox News hosts that were widely shared on the left.

Battleground state candidates: Shapiro and Kerry

Those two candidates may be insurgents, but two other candidates focused on battleground states who were thought to be front-runners from the start also remain prominent, particularly Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (D) and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly (D).

Shapiro has been touring the region to see what he can offer the Harris campaign in key states, and a Fox News poll this weekend confirmed what an asset he could be. In Pennsylvania, Shapiro has a 61% favorable rating and just 32% unfavorable rating. More than three in 10 Donald Trump supporters also like him. In a hypothetical matchup as the party's nominee, Shapiro leads Trump by 10 points.

Kerry has kept a quieter, lower profile than the other candidates, but an ABC News/Ipsos poll this week showed he had the best online image of any candidate.

While other candidates have attacked J.D. Vance (Waltz's “bizarre” comments are aimed at Vance), Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear (D) has been out in full attack on the Republican vice presidential nominee. He called Vance a “fake” and that he is “exploiting” and exaggerating eastern Kentucky's ties to the Appalachian Mountains. He's even said he would like to debate Vance, which is a pretty enthusiastic (and perhaps presumptuous) statement.

Insofar as the purpose of the game is to present contrasting running mates, Beshear has positioned himself as such.

Two major contenders who were seen as front-runners suggested Monday they should look elsewhere: North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) said he was withdrawing from the race, and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) said she was “not involved in the vetting” after previously indicating she would not take the post.

Other names that have been mentioned but not come to the forefront include Illinois Governor JB Pritzker and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo.

The presidential race has suddenly obscured the political sun, but federal and state primaries are picking up steam again after a quiet month in July, with a big primary getting underway in Arizona on Tuesday.

Amy B. Wang of The Washington Post wrote a primer on the state's primary election, and there are two big storylines to watch.

• Former gubernatorial candidate Kali Lake has long been expected to win the Republican nomination for the Senate, and that still seems likely, especially after Lake received a late boost from Trump. But the latest polls suggest that Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb has narrowed his lead slightly, and some worry Lake might not win the general election. (Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego has consistently led Lake in head-to-head contests.) If Lake doesn't win by a landslide, further concerns are likely.
• The ugliest and most contentious Republican primary in recent memory culminates tonight in the 8th Congressional District, which includes two statewide candidates who lost along with Lake in 2022, former Senate candidate Blake Masters and former Attorney General candidate Abe Hamadeh, State Assembly Speaker Ben Toma and former Representative Trent Franks. Masters has not shyly called out Hamadeh's background and absence of family, while Hamadeh has touted his “testosterone” and accused Masters of having a “mental breakdown.” Trump, who has previously endorsed Hamadeh, gambled over the weekend by endorsing Masters as well (he has done so before, including endorsing “Eric” when multiple endorsements were made in the 2022 Senate primary).

That's the percentage of so-called “double haters” — voters who dislike both presidential candidates from both major parties — found in a recent New York Times/Siena College poll.

The number is Method That's down from the numbers seen for much of the 2024 election cycle, but it generally hovers around 20%. That number is down given that many voters prefer Harris to President Biden, but it's also down in part because of improved views of Trump. (Several high-quality recent polls have shown that about 47-48% of voters approve of Trump.)

That makes the group less relevant in the upcoming race, at least for now, but we shouldn't rule out the possibility that both Harris and Trump are enjoying a brief honeymoon period — Harris after Biden and Trump after the assassination attempt and the recent Republican National Convention.

The good news for Harris is that recent polls have shown her to have higher support among these doubly-averse people than Biden does: A Fox News poll in Wisconsin showed that these voters were split in an April poll, but Harris won them by 25 points.