“Biden and Trump are like two cups of poison for China,” said Qiao Minghao, a professor at the Center for American Studies at Fudan University. “No matter who is in power, the pressure on China will continue to exist.” Relations are in “structural and chronic recession,” he added.
The Chinese government fears that a victory for President Trump on November 5th could lead to a full-scale trade war (an extension of one launched during Trump's first term) and derail efforts to get the struggling economy back on track. ing.
But while Biden's re-election would provide continuity, it would come with a trade-off with the Chinese Communist Party's long-term goal of reshaping the international order in its favor. The diplomatic turmoil expected in Trump's second term could present new opportunities for China to drive a wedge between the United States and its allies.
Either way, the U.S. presidential election is fueling China's leadership's deep aversion to instability.
“We don't like uncertainty,” said Wang Yiwei, vice president of Jinping New Era Academy of Socialist Thought with Chinese Characteristics. But for people in China who see their relationship with the United States as a conflict, Trump “could have a more negative impact on the American system than the current international system,” Wang added, adding that it is still generally beneficial for China. He said that.
China's powerful leader, Xi Jinping, regularly warns of “strong winds and waves” in a world of “changes not seen in a century” that threaten the country's goals of rejuvenation.
The biggest cause of turmoil is the strained relationship between China and the United States. There was a clear undercurrent of dissatisfaction with Washington and its allies at the eight-day annual meeting of the top leadership that concluded in Beijing on Monday.
On the sidelines of the event, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi accused the United States of “constantly reinventing its methods of suppressing China” and targeting China with “embarrassing” levels of accusations.
Chinese officials have carefully avoided publicly endorsing U.S. presidential candidates for fear of accusations of election interference, but Chinese diplomacy experts believe relations between the two countries will improve dramatically under either Biden or Trump. There are hardly any.
Rather, the election is often cast as inherently destabilizing for China, no matter who wins.
The Center for International Security Strategy, a think tank at the prestigious Tsinghua University, concluded in a recent report that the US election is China's biggest external threat in 2024.
If candidates take a “tough line” on China during the campaign, it is almost certain to undermine the positive momentum of the meeting between Mr. Xi and Mr. Biden in San Francisco late last year aimed at stabilizing relations. , one reason is that the Chinese government's intervention is “already treated as fact.” There is no need for verification,” the report states.
A recent U.S. intelligence report found that China, which has improved its capabilities in covert influence operations and disinformation, “wanted to sideline China's critics and widen divisions in U.S. society” this year. He said there was a possibility that he might try to interfere in the election.
Is Trump a “nation builder”?
For Chinese leaders, whether Trump or Biden serves China's interests is a matter of tactics and how China can best counter its main rival.
Mr. Xi has made clear his ambitions for China to play a leading role in shaping world affairs. But Chinese foreign policy officials are still grappling with whether China should directly and immediately challenge U.S. leadership for hegemony.
The theory of American decline has taken hold among many Chinese nationalists, who are increasingly convinced that China's time is now.
They are impatient with the U.S.-led world order and believe that Trump's return would undermine Washington's international standing and open the door for Beijing to expand its influence into the vacuum left by an inward-looking America. They often support Mr. Trump because they believe in it.
These nationalists prefer to call him “Chuan Guo,” or “Trump the Nation Builder,” but the country in question is China. For these cynical fans, President Trump's trade policies have backfired, spurring China's patriotism and efforts to become “independent” in core technologies such as semiconductors.
On Chinese social media, a video of Mr. Trump mocking Mr. Biden has become one of the most-watched videos of the US presidential election, with comments calling for the impersonation to be featured on a Chinese New Year program that is widely viewed in China. It is being sent. “If Trump gets on Douyin, he'll get 100 million followers in no time,” one user wrote, referring to China's domestic version of TikTok.
“If I had to choose, I frankly think Trump would be more beneficial to China,” Renmin University scholar Jin Kangrong said in a video about Douyin. Jin said President Trump definitely wants to hurt China, but because of domestic opposition that he is a “white supremacist” and international opposition that he is an “isolationist.” That power will be lacking.
Not everyone here believes President Trump's victory is a clear victory for China. The leading Republican candidate has threatened to impose tariffs of more than 60% on Chinese goods if re-elected.
“The benefits to China are unlikely to outweigh the costs, given the damage he would do to U.S.-China relations, especially China,” said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington.. “Under the Trump administration, there is no rift in U.S.-China relations.”
Some Chinese establishment scholars urge caution in fighting the United States at a time of intense international turmoil. One wrong move, they warn, and China could miss out on a chance at global leadership. They say it is better for China to weather crises such as the Ukraine war and the fighting in the Middle East from the sidelines.
A Chinese government adviser, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive topic, said nationalist supporters of President Trump overestimated China's ability to take a strong position in the international order, similar to the United States. Ta.
“Being a leader has many benefits, but it also comes with many responsibilities,” the source said. “China is not ready yet. We are far from it. We do not have universally accepted experiences and values, and we do not even have the necessary hard power.” This is military power. and the economic dominance of the US dollar.
Biden may have continued the strategic competition, but at least now there is more communication after things got so bad by 2020 that “both sides couldn't even sit down and talk,” says a former Chinese diplomat. said Ren Xiao, who is currently the director of the National Security Agency. Fudan University China Foreign Policy Research Center.
But Biden has made further efforts to rally U.S. allies to join in trade controls and other measures against China, which some believe poses a greater threat to China's interests in the long term. There is.
Huang Lihan, a professor at Huaqiao University in Xiamen, said Biden's characteristic is that he is “nianhuai” (meaning he appears sincere on the surface but is secretly malicious). He said that.
Biden and his team “say one thing in public; [do] Another behind the scenes. They not only constrain China from all sides, but also pretend to be fair and selfless,” Fan said. “Relatively speaking, Trump is more honest than Biden. He says what he thinks deep down.”
Mr. Lee reported from Seoul and Mr. Guo from Taipei, Taiwan.
