Why is this vote important?
Russia's presidential vote, which began on Friday and continues until Sunday, is set up as a horse race, but is more like a pre-determined Soviet-style referendum.
President Vladimir V. Putin, 71, will undoubtedly win a fifth term, but none of the other three candidates allowed to vote are real challengers. Alexei A. Navalny, a key opposition figure who worked to undermine the vote and a harsh critic of Mr. Putin and the war in Ukraine, died in an Arctic prison last month.
Still, the vote is important for Putin as a way to solidify his legitimacy and renew his favorable image as an embodiment of security and stability. The war, billed as a quick operation to overthrow the Kiev government, turned into a disaster that killed hundreds of thousands of people, severed ties with the West, and led to harsher internal repression. That image has been tarnished.
Nikolai Petrov, a Russian political scientist at the German Institute for International Security in Berlin, said: “The Kremlin needs to show that it has overwhelming public support, and that this support has increased since the start of the war.” said.
Does President Putin face a serious challenger?
The Kremlin habitually ensures that Mr. Putin is not exposed to any real competition. The other candidates (all members of the State Duma, Russia's rubber-stamp parliament) voted in favor of the Ukraine war, increased censorship and laws restricting gay rights.
Communist Party leader Nikolai Kharitonov, 75, already suffered a landslide defeat to Putin in 2004.
Leonid Slutsky, 56, of the Liberal Democratic Party, a nationalist group loyal to Mr. Putin, said he had no intention of rallying voters against the president.
Vladislav A. Dawankov (40) of the New People's Party is nominally a liberal and advocates for “peace” in Ukraine, but he basically supports Putin.
Two candidates who opposed the war were disqualified. Veteran politician Boris Nadezhdin has sounded the alarm on Putin's government after tens of thousands of people lined up across Russia to sign petitions for his candidacy. The Kremlin invalidated enough signatures to keep him out.
Will the Kremlin manipulate the results?
After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, actual elections were held in Russia for about 10 years. Since then, the Kremlin has relied on a variety of social, geographical and technological measures to ensure that candidates win an overwhelming majority.
Although Mr. Putin enjoys some support, the Kremlin has long maintained that Mr. Putin receives more than 50% of the vote and has received more support than he received in each previous vote. I've been trying to declare it. This year, that means more votes than the 56 million votes officials said he received in 2018. Experts are betting $60 million.
Two important changes could make voting even more opaque.
First, the vote will take place in four regions of Ukraine that Moscow has annexed without full control, the so-called “new territories.” Russian election authorities say there are 4.5 million voters in the region, which they argue is virtually impossible to monitor amid the war.
“We won't be able to confirm the numbers there, and the authorities will use them as they please,” said Alexander V. Kinev, an independent election expert in Moscow.
Online voting capabilities are also becoming more widely available, with electronic voters from 29 regions now on one giant list with no way to verify where and how they voted, Kinev noted.
In a country as vast and diverse as Russia, the Kremlin can also use more traditional means. It is regularly reported that in regions such as the Caucasus where there are a large number of ethnic powerful people, turnout is extremely high, with Mr. Putin winning 99% of the vote, even if relatively few people turn out to vote. There is.
Regions where state-run industries dominate also tend to report strong support for the president. To make your vote count, some polling stations hold raffles with prizes like appliances and firewood. One region of Siberia has 16,000 prizes on offer.
But the Kremlin has to rely on the votes of some of the biggest cities, which can be difficult. Excessive manipulation has caused anxiety before. There may be a little more manipulation this year, as monitoring is prohibited unless the candidate issues credentials.
Can Russians protest?
With street demonstrations banned, some of Putin's opponents are considering voting in protest. Experts say the easiest way to lower his approval rating is to vote for someone else.
The “Noon Anti-Putin” campaign promoted by Navalny's organization suggests that polling stations will be crowded at noon on Sunday. But there are many hurdles, including the possibility of conflict with police.
Also, in the last election, few polling places had more than 3,000 registered voters, and many polling places had fewer than 1,000. “Creating a crowd is technically very complex,” said David Kanchia, an analyst with the Russian-held Golos election monitoring agency.
Can President Putin remain president for life?
Since he was first appointed to succeed President Boris Yeltsin in 2000, Putin has said Russia's constitution will determine the length of his term. Then he went on to rewrite the Constitution.
Asked in 2014 whether he intended to remain president forever, Putin replied: “This is not good, it is harmful for the country, and I don't need it either,” before adding: “I will not wait until I see how the situation turns out.” I'll take a look,” he added. But in any case, my period of service is limited by the Constitution. ”
Although he became prime minister under President Dmitri A. Medvedev in 2008 when term limits forced him to step down, Mr. Putin remained in power behind the throne until he regained the top spot in 2012.
The presidential term was extended to six years before the 2018 vote, and then in 2020 Putin amended the constitution again to reset the term clock. At present, Putin is likely to serve at least two terms until 2036. If Putin continues in office, he will soon surpass Joseph Stalin's record of 29 years of rule.
When will I know the voting results?
The results are expected to be announced on Sunday evening Moscow time.
Where can I get more information?
Putin doesn't push nuclear war too strongly in pre-election message
