The average poll collected by polling firm 270toWin shows that November's White House race is highly competitive. Incumbent Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump appear to be about evenly matched, with Trump leading by 1.7 percentage points, which is within the margin of error for any poll.
The largest market, the crypto-based platform, has nearly $100 million bet on the outcome of this election, almost double the amount at its peak in 2021. all A crypto-based prediction market calculated by researchers at Bitwise Investments. The wisdom of the crowd (at least this Trump has a 52% chance of winning, while Biden has a 37% chance of winning.
Note that these numbers are not rounded to the nearest 100. That's because the declared and hypothetical candidates have a long tail and the crowd thinks they might have a chance to win, even though it may seem silly.
michelle obama. Gavin Newsom. Kamala Harris.
None of these three prominent Democrats have shown any signs of running for president. Mr. Biden is the Democratic Party's official candidate. But traders still believe Biden, who is elderly and has suspected cognitive decline, could pull out at the eleventh hour.
Despite hosting seemingly frivolous questions, prediction markets provide economically motivated participants with alternative expert opinions and are more accurate than error-prone traditional polls. May provide predictions.
These are also ways to hedge your bets. A contract that asks bettors to predict the outcome of a movie's opening weekend is a way to create a derivative on a studio's stock. Reddit's bet on his IPO's valuation on its first day of trading provides a form of price discovery. Enron tried a primitive version of this during the heyday of weather derivatives, but it wasn't very interesting.
Prediction markets are likely to finally break out in 2024, after years of being relegated to the realm of academic hobbyism. Researchers at Bitwise Investments predict:[m]Over $100 million or more will be bet on prediction markets as it emerges as the new “killer app” for cryptocurrencies in 2024. In the third month of this year, it seems that this figure will already have to be updated.
Prediction markets typically offer a yes or no about a verifiable outcome (everything from court rulings to Grammy winners to celebrity peccadillos – no, polymarkets, we're not linking). Framed as a question. that 1) Within a set period. Investors can buy “yes” stocks or “no” stocks. If the contract is made, he will be paid $1 for each share if his prediction is correct, and $0 if his prediction is wrong.
Many prediction markets these days are interested in cryptocurrency-related outcomes, such as whether a particular coin will reach an all-time high by a certain date or an airdrop will take place. Therefore, it may have a positive effect for investors who trade cryptocurrencies in the spot market.
In the winter of 2022, amidst the debris of the FTX collapse, Solana (SOL) was in terrible financial shape.
SOL, the centerpiece of Alameda Bankman Freed’s token universe, has plummeted, far from its all-time high of $258 in November 2021.
The DeFi summer of 2021 pushed SOL to all-time highs. Now, it looks like the 2024 Memecoin March will give the token another shot at testing $200.
The question for polymarket bettors is: which will break above all-time highs first, SOL or Ethereum (ETH)?
Many people were excited about the project because Solana was built as an alternative to the Ethereum network, which was very expensive at the time. But his two and a half years of Ethereum upgrades, culminating in the recent Dencun software update, have narrowed the cost gap.
After the debut of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the US this year, many saw an Ether ETF as the next logical step, and the market has started to price in this possibility. But questions remain and weigh on whether Ether is a security for U.S. regulators. price. Singapore's QCP Capital has warned that a price correction is coming for Ether, with the digital asset failing to rise above $4,000.
However, on Polymarket, traders are expressing confidence that Ethereum will reach an all-time high in 2024. It wasn't before SOL.
What will be the highest price for ETH this year? According to a newly launched cryptocurrency market on the regulated US platform Karshi, there is a 74% chance that ETH will rise above $4,500 this year. There is a 57% chance of reaching $6,000 and a 42% chance of reaching $6,000.
Nvidia vs Apple
Ten years ago, Nvidia was a mid-sized chip designer that made graphics processing units (GPUs) that allowed gamers to enjoy better graphics every year and visual effects professionals to render their workloads faster. , and users of computer-aided design software can enjoy smoother graphics. experience.
What a difference 10 years makes!
Today, the company's GPUs are at the center of the AI revolution and are worth trillions of dollars. Many market analysts are wondering whether the company can be positioned as a contender to surpass tech giants such as Microsoft and Apple.
Polymarket contracts ask bettors if and when that will happen.
Analysts say that despite Nvidia's impressive growth and record market capitalization rise, it remains unclear whether the company will be able to challenge Apple's dominance, and to do so, it faces a potential The company said it needs to maintain extremely high price-to-earnings ratios and continue unprecedented earnings growth. Market saturation and competition.
Polymarket investors seem to agree with the analysts' views, but things could change.
