For the 2024 cycle, these key battleground states are likely to be Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
In 2020, Biden won all six, securing an Electoral College victory over Trump by a vote of 306 to 232. But Trump currently leads in all six polling averages.
pennsylvania
It used to be reliably close to the Democratic Party, but lately it's not even close to the Keystone State.
In 2016, Trump won Pennsylvania by 0.7 percentage points, and in 2020, Biden won the Mid-Atlantic battleground state by 1.2 percentage points.
Before the Trump administration, there had been a quarter-century of uninterrupted voting for Democrats.
Pennsylvania, known for “rust belt” cities like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, has been ravaged for decades by the steady decline of its industrial production base.
Biden visited to tout recent major infrastructure wins. Mr. Trump is courting white rural voters with the promise of an inflation-free future.
georgia
The southeastern state of Georgia has been an electoral flashpoint during the Trump administration, and disputes smolder.
After the 2020 election, the country's prosecutors charged Trump with election interference after he called state officials and urged them to “find” enough votes to overturn Biden's narrow victory. Indicted.
Trump faces multiple felonies, including racketeering charges that are at the center of the case against the former president and more than a dozen co-defendants.
Biden benefited largely from African-American voters, becoming the first Democrat to win the Peach State since 1992.
michigan
Trump caused a stir in 2016 en route to defeating Hillary Clinton in Michigan, a former Democratic stronghold.
Biden moved the state back into the blue zone in 2020. Boosted by unionization and a large black community, the margin of victory was less than three points.
But this time, Democrats risk losing support from the 200,000-member Arab American community, who have criticized the Democratic Party's handling of the Israel-Gaza war.
arizona
While Pennsylvania moved to the left, Arizona moved to the right, making Biden the only Democratic candidate to choose this century.
It was one of the closest elections of 2020, with Biden winning by just 10,457 votes.
Defeated, Trump hopes dissatisfaction with the winner's immigration policies will swing the Grand Canyon state, which borders Mexico, back in his favor.
Super PAC American Values says it has already secured enough signatures to put Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on the ballot, complicating prospects for either major party candidate. there is a possibility.
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nevada
Nevada, the battleground state with the lowest percentage of college graduates, hasn't voted Republican since George W. Bush in 2004, but conservatives could deal a blow to their cause in November. I am sure.
So far, polls have proven them correct, with the historically Democratic Latino community leaning increasingly Republican in recent election cycles.
Although a Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll showed Trump with a 6-point lead in February, the state is another state where Kennedy is aiming to be competitive, with Trump trailing in a three-way race. His lead widens slightly.
wisconsin
After carrying the state by a large margin in the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton was rewarded with a loss in the state.
It's a different story when Trump's opponent is Biden, as was the case in neighboring Michigan in the Midwest. Biden turned a 23,000-vote margin into a 21,000-vote margin of victory for the Democrats.
Polls show Wisconsin will be one of the closest races in 2024. Trump's lead in the RealClearPolitics average is just 1%, well within the margin of error.
Republicans see the state as a possible prize and a key target, and the party will hold its summer convention in its largest city, Milwaukee.
