Georgia has a long history of suppression of black voters and has been a hub of battles over voting rights laws for decades. The state often sees wide disparities in turnout between white and nonwhite communities, with the latter typically having a much lower turnout.
But this is not always the case. In the 2012 election, when Barack Obama won a second term in the White House, turnout among black voters under 38 in Lowndes County, a Republican-leaning county in southern Georgia, was actually higher than in the House race. It was 4 percentage points higher. Turnout among white voters of the same age.
It turned out to be temporary. By 2020, young white voters in Lowndes were 14 points more likely to turn out than black voters of the same age, according to new research from former AFL-CIO political director Michael Podhotzer.
What happened in between? It's impossible to say for sure because there are so many variables, including Obama no longer on the ballot.
But mounting evidence points to a pivotal 2013 Supreme Court decision, Shelby County v. Holder, that struck down core parts of the Voting Rights Act. The court effectively struck down a requirement that counties and states with a history of racial discrimination in voting places, including all of Georgia, seek permission from the Justice Department before changing voting laws or procedures.
As a result, numerous laws were enacted containing restrictions on voting, such as limiting mail-in voting and adding voter ID requirements. (One of Georgia's new provisions restricts most people from providing food and water to voters who are in line within 40 feet of a polling place, a recent “Curb Your Enthusiasm” (Featured in the episode)
connect the dots
Political scientists and civil rights leaders have long argued that the high court's decision is a historic move, as many local and state governments in the South no longer need federal permission to change voting laws or regulations. They have argued that this will lead to a return to oppression of voters who have been marginalized. Two new studies support that theory.
A Brennan Center study this month found that the disparity in turnout between white and non-white voters is “in the previously targeted jurisdictions compared to other parts of the country with similar demographic and socio-economic profiles.” It was found that it expanded almost twice as fast as the previous year.
In other words, turnout gaps tended to widen fastest in areas that lost federal oversight after 2013.
Podholzer's study analyzed voter turnout at the county level. He found that young voters across the country are feeling the most acutely that the racial turnout gap has widened since the Supreme Court's Shelby decision.
These are trends that worry Democrats when it comes to areas like Lowndes, home to Valdosta State University, which has more than 12,000 students.
Podholzer found that older voters are more resistant to changing their votes because their voting habits are more established. But young people and first-time voters are far more likely to be discouraged or prevented from voting.
Podholzer said in a report to be released this weekend that this is “a generational shift of sorts, with older, more established voters maintaining their voting habits while new regulations deter younger voters.” .
In Bulloch County, Georgia, Winston County, Michigan, and Newberry County, South Carolina, the racial turnout gap among young voters widened by more than 20 percentage points between the 2012 and 2020 elections. In each of these counties, the gap between Gen X and older voters did not widen by more than 11 percentage points.
Voter turnout in 2024
The results of the youth vote in November will be especially important for President Biden. He won 60% of voters under 30 in 2020, according to exit polls, and was a key part of the coalition government. However, youth voting is on the decline in the 2022 midterm elections, and young voters are expressing resentment toward the president ahead of this year's elections.
Note: Using turnout to assess the impact of voting law changes is an incomplete assessment at best, as it does not take into account other motivating factors, such as close races or candidate polarization. is. It also ignores the cost aspects of voting, such as the time required.
Seeing the racial turnout gap even wider among young voters overturns some conventional wisdom about recent voting law changes. Political commentators have often argued that restricting access to mail-in voting or reducing the number of polling places is likely to affect older voters, who often have less mobility.
But Bernard Fraga, a political science professor at Emory University in Atlanta, said the larger racial disparity in turnout among young voters is due to “the question of who is most affected by this type of law. “This is in good agreement with previous literature.”
“Small changes in voting calculations can have a larger impact for people who have been historically disenfranchised or who are simply less likely to vote,” Fraga said. ”
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