WASHINGTON (NEXSTAR) – Both presumptive candidates for the 2024 presidential election will be at least 78 years old by Inauguration Day. One person has also been charged in four criminal cases and faces dozens of felonies. Polls also show that many voters are dissatisfied with their choices, even though the men dominate their party's primary process. But can you replace a candidate who wins a primary? The short answer is, yes, you can. However, it is a path that carries considerable risks for the party.
timing
The most difficult part of this hypothesis is to consider: when Candidates need to be replaced. The two main focuses are party conventions and general elections.
before the tournament
Millions of people vote for their preferred candidates in party primaries and caucuses, but delegates are technically the ones who choose the candidates. When parties gather for a convention, unless a state counts delegates on a winner-take-all basis, the votes are parsed based on the popular vote in the state's primaries and caucuses.
However, many delegates are not legally obligated to vote for the top vote-getter and choose candidates at their own discretion. And if that candidate is removed from the list, legally bound delegates will have more leeway.
Prior to binding primaries, candidates were often selected by vote of delegates, which often resulted in lengthy wrangling to identify the party's final nominee. A similar process could take place today in a so-called “mediated convention” if the first winner withdraws.
The natural successor would most likely be the vice presidential nominee, but each party convention functions like a caucus and may seek to select a new candidate if it is not satisfied with the vice presidential selection. There is.
After the tournament
Assume that everything proceeds in the typical manner, with each convention selecting the candidate selected in the primary ballot. After that, he will probably have to replace the candidate in early September. Fortunately, each party has similar rules for such scenarios.
The RNC or DNC convenes its members and leaders from across the party (think Mitch McConnell and Chuck Schumer) to endorse a new candidate. A vice presidential candidate could also fit well into this scenario, but in today's divided political environment, it's easy to assume that lawmakers and leaders would still see an opportunity to change course. . Candidates are nominated only by party officials because states do not have the time or resources to hold new primaries.
Ballots in some states would have to be changed, and a court would have to approve the changes. However, given the gravity of the situation, it is reasonable to expect the court to promptly oblige.
Just before the election
The last few weeks before the election are the most ambiguous and any changes made at this time will cause many difficulties. Parties may rush to choose new candidates, but if all the ballots have already been sent out, they will have to petition the courts in many states to change the ballots. The daunting task of replacing every ballot will undoubtedly cause more problems than solutions.
Essentially, parties may try to replicate previous choices, but voters run the risk of being forced to vote for someone who cannot win the party's elections or become president. . Will voters choose that person in the first place? Do they write someone in and hope that person wins? Party officials can influence public sentiment, but ultimately it is impossible to know whether people will listen, much less agree.
The lesson here is that if parties are going to take action, it's important to do so early in the process, because the chaos gets worse the closer we get to election day.Fortunately, I was able to replace the candidate with rear Election Day is a little more obvious, albeit in a completely different can.
