The era of Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) is coming to an end. Most Americans, especially those in the wake of the tragic events at our southern border, are saying “goodbye” to the dour AMLO, who is legally barred from running again after six years in office. Dew.
Mexico's leader has been the hemisphere's loudest voice promoting universal “immigrant rights,” sometimes colluding with President Joe Biden to help immigrants enter the country illegally, and sometimes subtly subverting him. I've been manipulating it.
Although he will step down by October 1st, it is almost certain that AMLO's successor, Claudia Sheinbaum, a candidate for AMLO's protégé who is fully expected to carry on the administration's policies, will take over. There is.
Sheinbaum has held a commanding lead in national polls in Mexico for months, and most experts expect her to easily win the June vote. She has campaigned carefully and is confident that AMLO's approval ratings and popularity (her approval rating is almost 60 percent) will lead her to victory.
Mr. Sheinbaum is an experienced politician who proved his mettle as a leader by serving as mayor (effectively governor) of the Mexico City metropolitan area (population 22 million) and won AMLO's support.
Sheinbaum's personality is of a different nature than AMLO's. She has a Ph.D. in hard science and tends to take a more non-combatant approach than her outspoken counterpart, AMLO. But she is very sympathetic to his left-wing vision, and while she is critical of so-called “neoliberal” economics, she advocates for the radical-chic woke agenda that is ubiquitous in left-wing politics. are doing. As expected, she ordered the removal of a statue of Christopher Columbus in the nation's capital.
If Sheinbaum is elected, identity-politics-driven international media coverage will likely focus heavily on her status as Mexico's first Jewish female president. The massive amount of publicity surrounding her identity would help sweep AMLO from the Mexican national stage, but unfortunately, the expected electoral victory would unfortunately jeopardize Sheinbaum's political agenda. It is certain that it will become even more established.
Sheinbaum accepts AMLO's views on immigration. Borders should be porous, and addressing “root causes” should be a priority. Sheinbaum is more analytical when it comes to her responses to Washington, but her first instinct is an AMLO-like defense of Mexican sovereignty. She may have disagreements with Mexico's president on environmental policy. While AMLO is interested in burning fossil fuels, Sheinbaum, an environmental physicist, is deeply involved in climate change orthodoxy.
Although multiple candidates are running, Mr. Sheinbaum's main opponent is a technology businessman and former senator who heads a coalition formed by Mexico's two main opposition parties, the PRI. Mr. Sositl Galvez.Partido Revolucionario Institucional) and PAN (Partido Axion Nacional). Gálvez is trying to restore the pre-AMLO power dynamics in Mexican politics. She ushered in a new twist as a woman of indigenous descent, but that era is unlikely to return.
For decades, the PRI and PAN have dominated Mexican politics in a system similar to our own Democratic and Republican parties. In 2018, AMLO established his rebel political party known as Morena (National Revitalization Movement)which carried him to the Presidency in a landslide victory.
AMLO discredited both the PRI (old nationalist, establishment left) and the PAN (conservative, pro-business) as Mexico's corrupt establishment. The fact that these two powerful parties, once bitter rivals, came together in a somewhat desperate bid to nominate Mr. Gálvez speaks volumes about how AMLO has reshaped Mexican politics.
One of the key elements of AMLO's restructuring was that he significantly expanded the federal welfare and pension system. In modern Dickensian Mexico, approximately 20 million workers are engaged in the informal economy, generating 30 percent of national income. AMLO brought this important and neglected segment of society into the welfare state for the first time, and his efforts undoubtedly contribute to his popularity.
Leftists praise AMLO's welfare policies for “institutionalizing” FDR-like Mexican aid programs in the 1930s. Meanwhile, the country's conservatives and the liberal left of the old regime have denounced his policies as populist vote-buying, a reputation that is nevertheless regularly used to win Mexican elections. It's a bad political tactic.
All of this contributes to why Galvez has a difficult time finding his way to victory. She has already traveled to Washington to propose that the Organization of American States (OAS) send election observers to Mexico.
When it comes to U.S.-Mexico security cooperation, Galvez would be slightly preferable to Sheinbaum. Mr. Galvez does talk about cooperation on a common frontier, and he may be open to better partnerships with law enforcement, at least rhetorically. But her security vision has little in common with border security in the American sense.
While Gálvez condemns the unprecedented human trafficking occurring in both countries, her immigration “solution” is to expand visas and legal work opportunities in the United States for foreigners, especially Mexicans. This is not surprising since it is inhabited by Mexicans. el norte You can still vote in Mexican elections.
Mexico's endemic corruption is another major campaign issue that directly impacts U.S. national interests. This is because Mexico's large neighbor is the United States' largest commercial trading partner as well as a source of immigrants. Of course, both candidates denounce corruption, but neither proposes a workable solution because everyone is out of ideas.
Sheinbaum is mostly philosophical, rejecting the idea that corruption in Mexico is a “cultural problem.” It is inconceivable that she is calling for a “peaceful dialogue” between governors, judges, and police to address “impunity.” Mr. Sheinbaum argues that the AMLO administration will not only set a new tone, but will also reshape the country historically by overturning Mexico's deeply entrenched and corrupt privileges – which AMLO arrogantly called the “Fourth…” “transformation,'' which Sheinbaum dubiously claims has already begun, and that a fundamental change is already underway. society.
Mr. Gálvez, of course, rejected Mr. Sheinbaum's positive view, making credible accusations that AMLO was no different from past presidents and illegally profiting from massive government-sponsored construction work, particularly on the Maya Railway in southern Mexico. He blames his adult sons for taking advantage of him. The rail line was AMLO's signature infrastructure project, and its cost ballooned from about $8 billion to $28 billion as contractors worked on it one after another.
Gálvez's criticism is certainly more valid than Sheinbaum's optimism. Mexican society remains hopelessly mired in widespread corruption, even by measures such as Transparency International's annual assessment. This continues despite Mexico's success in attracting new foreign investment and trade, primarily due to its proximity to U.S. markets. Outsiders seeking to do business with Mexico, and increasingly led by Chinese businessmen, simply avoid or participate in corrupt practices.
But what made AMLO so successful on corruption issues was his fierce defense of his own highly valued personal reputation of incorruptibility. For millions of Mexicans who are used to seeing their country's politicians get rich (sadly, just like in the US), AMLO's clean track record, if true, is worth noting. It is worth it. This will certainly help Mr. Sheinbaum's campaign, since Mr. Sheinbaum is also effectively exonerated of charges of illegally exploiting politics to enrich himself.
In this context, AMLO remains a grandmaster of symbolic acts that his grassroots supporters will never forget. For example, he canceled Mexico City's grossly over-budget new airport project, which was believed to benefit the corrupt and wealthy. He refused to use the president's luxury jet, a Boeing 787 Dreamliner, and sold it. And he never occupied the CEO's elaborate residence known as “Los Pinos.”
It was great political theater, but no presidential policy can reshape a country as vast and complex as Mexico in a few years, especially when it comes to corruption. Perhaps some would argue that the long road to reversing Mexico's entrenched corruption must start by leading by example at the top. Indeed, nothing else is working. But sadly, when it comes to day-to-day governance issues, such as overhauling the country's dysfunctional criminal court system, AMLO's strategic plans are as empty as those of Mexico's predecessors.
Perhaps there is no greater American national interest than preventing transnational organized crime from using Mexico to enter our country. Of course, Mexican politicians are taking different approaches to the rampant crime crisis, but the main concern this election cycle, including those for Congress, state and local governments, is “security.” It is acknowledged that the situation has worsened.
The kickoff to Mexico's 2024 elections, accompanied by the killing of two local candidates, tragically symbolized how violence affects every aspect of Mexican national life. Understandably appalled and frightened, Mexicans have accepted the fate that no matter who is elected president, the country will continue to wobble in dealing with a huge national crisis.
Subscribe now
Receive daily emails in your inbox
Both candidates have called for an increase in the National Guard, as Mexico's state and local police forces are unreliable and even part of organized crime. President Gálvez has proposed doubling the number of Guardsmen to 300,000, but the National Guard's track record, first created by AMLO to replace the corrupt federal police, has been unimpressive. . AMLO essentially retreated from his own National Guard strategy and gradually moved toward giving the Mexican military more and more authority to deal with crime (and many other issues).
While the military should not be on the front lines of the fight against organized criminals, Mexico's dismal law enforcement record, with its corrupt police force and dysfunctional courts, has led to a vicious cycle more akin to a guerrilla war than a crime wave. It reflects social struggles. National security agencies other than the Army and Marines appear unable to prevent further deterioration of the situation.that's for sure la presidenta Sheinbaum will do nothing behind the scenes to address this national catastrophe.
Unfortunately, once Mexico's vote is over and the selected candidate is sworn in as president, there will be little hope for a meaningful new start in the U.S.-Mexico bilateral relationship. What Mexico needs more than a new president is a new chief executive in the White House. We need a United States that reverses the Biden administration's disastrous open border policy and uses its strong diplomatic influence to focus Mexican political leadership, whoever it is, on the security issues of both countries. We need a president.
