There are two scenarios that could explain how the 2024 election currently stands. One of them is that they are locked in a nearly 50-50 race between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
The other is that Biden has a wider lead, perhaps even more, than national polls suggest.
The answer largely depends on whether Trump and the Republican Party maintain the Electoral College advantage they held in the past two presidential elections.
In 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by more than 2 percentage points. But Trump beat her in the Electoral College 306 to 232 because of her performance in certain demographics and in certain states. (For “honest” electors, the final election margin on her resume was later changed from her 304 to 227.)
In 2020, Biden won the popular vote by 4.5 percentage points over Trump, winning 306 electoral votes, the same as Trump received four years ago.
And if this trend continues into 2024, Biden may need to win the popular vote by more than five points to win the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.
However, 2 electoral trends do not guarantee future results. And in 2024, the Republican Electoral College advantage is less pronounced as President Trump gains support from black and Latino voters, including in states like California and New York that are not close to deciding the presidential election. There is another way of thinking that this may not be the case. . If Mr. Trump's approval rating is even slightly better in these big, blue states, the national vote and the tipping point state vote could be closer together.
But the question is how big that decline will be, and if so, how much? This is important information to help determine what national polls actually mean at this point, but it's shrouded in mystery.
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“President Trump's improvement among Hispanic and black voters may reduce pro-Republican bias by a point or two, but it won't eliminate it,” says Amy Walter and Cook Political. said David Wasserman, the report's senior editor and election analyst.
“In other words, even if Mr. Trump loses the popular vote by two points in November, I still think he has a strong chance of winning Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Nevada. “That's why I see Trump as the clear favorite at this moment,” Wasserman added.
Cases for Republicans to maintain Electoral College advantage
When political analysts discuss bias in the electoral system, they refer to the popular vote and the vote gains in “tipping point” states, or decisive states that carry a winning candidate over the required 270-electorate threshold. It refers to the difference. To win the presidency.
For most of the past 70 years, states at tipping points have closely tracked the popular vote.
For example, in 2012, Barack Obama won the popular vote by about 4 percentage points and led Colorado, a tipping point state, by more than 5 percentage points.
But things have changed in the Trump era, with electoral bias increasing to its highest level since 1948 and tilting in the Republican direction.
Part of the explanation is that Mr. Trump did particularly well among white working-class voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, swing states in the Midwest and Rust Belt.
Another explanation is Democratic overperformance in states such as California and New York, which in the current political climate are not key to deciding the presidential election.
“Biden won by about 7 million votes.” [in 2020]” said Republican pollster Bill McInturf, the Republican half of the bipartisan team that conducts the NBC News poll. “He won California by 5 million votes. He won New York by 2 million votes.”
“This means the votes were effectively tied in 48 other states and Washington, D.C.,” McInturf added.
Additionally, the increase in Democratic support in Texas (from 41% of the vote in 2012 to 46% in 2020) is due to how much the three most populous states have tilted toward the Democratic Party during the Trump era compared to the rest of the country. is further highlighted.
And Biden and Trump will be on the presidential ticket again in 2024, with Trump overperforming with white working-class voters and Biden with voters in places like California and New York. It wouldn't be outlandish to repeat it. .
Why Republicans lost their electoral advantage
But a year ago, New York Times political numbers analyzer Nate Cohn and J. Miles Coleman and Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia Center for Politics found that 2024 will be different from 2016 or 2020. We speculated that it could be a different year.
National polls show that Trump has a high approval rating with black and Latino voters, and in the 2022 midterm elections, Democrats are likely to win more in Michigan and Pennsylvania than in California and New York (compared to past results). The pro-Republican Electoral College is likely to be less biased, as it has performed well.
“If Mr. Trump is indeed growing support from young and diverse voters, which I think is a debatable proposition, this is what the polls are showing: California. “It might just give Trump a higher percentage of the vote in states where he's already expected to win or lose, like Florida and New York,” Kondik told NBC News.
“So I think the pro-Republican bias in the Electoral College could be smaller in 2024 than it was in 2020,” he added.
In fact, a recent high-quality California poll shows Biden leading Trump in a head-to-head race by about 20 points, compared to Biden's nearly 30-point margin of victory in California in 2020. is also shrinking.
As Cohn said in a New York Times article last year, “At least today's tied national polls suggest that Trump is leading in the states most likely to decide the presidency. It doesn't mean anything.”
What is the current status of voting in battleground districts?
Currently, direct polls show that Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump are in an even race across the country, although Mr. Trump holds a small but consistent lead in some battleground states. Results are usually within close range. error.
And polling averages suggest Electoral College favoring Trump Some battlefields are biased, others are not.Here's a big caveat: Use polling averages to measure accurately. The current position of the presidential race may be in question due to differences in poll methodology, margins of error, and reputations. But they can help put into perspective how national polls differ from battleground polls.
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Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump are roughly tied in national polls, according to RealClearPolitics averages.
They are also roughly even in the battleground states of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, suggesting that there is little trend in favor of Republicans in these states. This is a change from the final results of the past few elections, in which these states tilted several points to the right in national politics. Vote.
But some analysts believe Michigan could be a tipping point state in 2024, with Trump leading in other battleground states such as Michigan.
