Armed with the most famous last name in American politics, Robert F. KennedyThere are clear and present dangers to presidential wildcard candidate Joe Biden's hopes for a second term in the White House.
The environmental lawyer and conspiracy theorist boasts double-digit support, and polls show independent candidate RFK Jr. is doing more damage to the president than Republican challenger Donald Trump. is suggested.
Democrats have learned to fear unexpected outsiders. George W. Bush And Donald Trump won close elections in 2000 and 2016, backed by Green Party candidates who soaked up the votes of Al Gore and Hillary Clinton.
“The reason that high-profile third-party candidates pose such a threat right now is because of hyperpolarization,” said Donald Neiman, a political analyst and professor at Binghamton University in New York.
“There are only six or seven states that are truly competitive, and some of those states are decided by just 10,000 to 20,000 votes. So anything that siphons off a group of normally reliable voters is All could be decisive factors.”
Mr. Kennedy's popularity (he trails by about 10 percentage points in polling averages) complicates the Biden campaign's strategy to turn November's vote between the president and Mr. Trump.
Kennedy, a vaccine skeptic who spread misinformation downplaying the 2021 riot at the U.S. Capitol, has yet to secure voting access in most parts of the country.
But he said he has enough support to qualify in six states and aims to collect 1 million signatures to qualify in all 50 states.
-Trump advantage-
“Kennedy poses a real threat to the Biden campaign in key battleground states,” said Charlie Colleen, chief strategist at conservative political consultancy RedPac.
“He has very high approval ratings among independents and young people, groups that have traditionally voted for Biden.”
Progressive super PACs and the Democratic National Committee are ramping up anti-Kennedy attacks, sending mobile billboards to Mr. Kennedy's events and pursuing legal efforts to keep him from voting.
Despite all concerns, conservative businessmen, not liberals ross perot — remains the most successful wild card in modern history, winning 19 percent in 1992 to deny George H.W. Bush a victory over Bill Clinton.
Mr. Kennedy's conspiratorial views and opposition to aid to Ukraine once made him a darling of Mr. Trump's Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement, but Mr. Trump has turned Mr. Kennedy into another Perot. He rejected the idea that it could happen.
“He is a crooked political opponent of Joe Biden and not mine. I would love to see him run!” President Trump recently posted on his social media apps.
– “Huge error” –
Mr. Kennedy, 70, began his bid for the White House as a Democrat, but withdrew from the primary race after complaining of bullying tactics by Mr. Biden's allies who were trying to keep him out of contention.
Keith Nahijian, a close aide to Mr. Bush who was defeated by Mr. Perot against Mr. Clinton in 1992, said Mr. He believes he made a “serious mistake.”
“I think they may lose the presidency because they didn't think through their strategy at the beginning of the campaign,” he told AFP.
But Mr. Nahijan, a veteran of six presidential campaigns, cautioned against viewing 2024 as another 1992, saying that Mr. Perot, a billionaire, has access and visibility that Mr. Kennedy cannot buy. He pointed out that there is a possibility of buying it.
Kennedy went some way to plugging the funding gap and further confusing the Democratic Party by nominating Nicole Shanahan, a deep-pocketed former Democratic donor from California, as his running mate.
Nahian said Shanahan, a lawyer and philanthropist, is “far left” and unlikely to drift away from Trump supporters. But he cautioned Republicans and Democrats alike against complacency.
“Independent candidates have a huge impact on elections. It doesn't matter whether they are a current president or a former president. They have to be taken seriously,” Nahian said.
“In recent weeks, you've probably seen Trump and Biden start attacking RFK in earnest, because they're trying to make Biden a viable candidate right now, especially in key states that Biden is currently losing.” Because they see it as a threat.”
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