President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participate in expanded bilateral talks with Israeli and U.S. government officials in Tel Aviv, Wednesday, October 18, 2023. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
Domestic issues such as the economy are usually the most important issues in presidential elections, but with war intensifying in the Middle East, US intelligence agencies are caveat The Middle East has been in turmoil this year due to an “imminent” Iranian attack on Israel in response to Israel's alleged airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Syria, killing several senior Iranian officials. is likely to have a significant impact on elections.
Similarly, a prolonged or escalating conflict poses a substantial risk to President Biden's re-election chances, as the longer the war drags on, the more public opinion turns against Biden.
Moreover, there is a very real and very tragic risk of a prolonged war. possibility That more Israeli hostages will be killed at the same time as Biden is publicly restraining Israeli military action reflects the strong commitment Biden showed to the Jewish state in the immediate aftermath of the October 7 war. This represents a very significant reversal from support.th attack.
And given the possibility of Iranian retaliation, if the war escalates as planned, Mr. Biden would be further weakened by soaring energy prices and endangering U.S. troops.
Domestically, an escalation of the war would add to the intense pressure Biden is already under from the left of his party over his support for Israel, further worsening the position of Stevie O'Hanlon, communications director for the progressive Sunrise Movement. right. explained as Biden's “problem with young voters and voters of color.”
In this regard, the Progressive Party's dissatisfaction is already evident in the Democratic Party primaries. In 38 states or territories that have voted so far, “non-commitment” protest votes have reached double digits. Nine This includes battleground states such as Michigan (13%) and North Carolina (13%).
This protest vote is driven primarily by Arab Americans, young people, and progressive voters, especially in an election like this year with two prominent candidates and a clear base of support, with Biden most likely to win. It could erode the very constituency of voters it needs to.
Of course, it's possible that most of these voters will line up behind Biden in the general election, but it's also possible that enough voters will stay home or vote for a third-party candidate out of frustration.
And the race is expected to be extremely close, which could be enough to swing the election in Trump's favor.
Importantly, the group of voters most angry with Biden over his support for Israel is the same group that supported him by a wide margin in 2020 but is fiercely opposed to the president's handling of the war.
Almost a quarter (23%) of Gen Z voters say Biden is “most responsible” for the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. According to Newsweek, this is almost double the percentage that blames Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (12%), 10% that blame the Israel Defense Forces, and 10% that blame Hamas. This is significantly higher than the estimated 8%. poll.
The war's impact goes beyond young people's voting.Two-thirds of black voters oppose more U.S. aid to Israel, according to Quinnipiac voteAnd as of the end of January, more than 1,000 black pastors issued A public statement pressuring the White House to do more to secure a ceasefire.
Furthermore, 57% of women voters corroborated Biden in 2020 is fiercely opposed to war.In a recent Gallup poll, more than 6 in 10 (61%) women said they did not support Israel's military action in Gaza. poll.
Following the tragic Israeli drone accident strike The incident left seven international aid workers dead and is sure to fuel anger over continued fighting, with calls for Mr Biden to do more to end the violence.
In an effort to stave off criticism, the president issued an unprecedented public statement that markedly shifted his approach to Israel. Criticize Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has recently said that his approach is a “mistake” and previously Blame He said Israel carried out “indiscriminate” bombing and called Israeli military operations “excessive.”
In many ways, Biden is stuck between a rock and a hard place.If he leans too far to the left and tries to appease opponents within his own party, he runs the very real risk of alienating Jewish voters – a sizable vote. you will need a number block in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan and Nevada.
Similarly, further moves by Biden to increase pressure on Israel or reduce U.S. support would mean that a majority of Americans (79%) support Israel over Hamas, and remove Hamas from power. (77%) and oppose a ceasefire before the 2019 ceasefire, which could hurt Biden. According to Harvard-Harris University, the hostages were released (63%), and a minority believe Biden turned away from Israel because of political threats from the Democratic base rather than what is best for Israel and the world. (54%). vote.
On the other side of the aisle, war doesn't seem to be much of a threat to Donald Trump, despite the president's recent behavior. comment He told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to “fuck it up” and accused Israel of victimizing Israel in a “PR war” over footage coming out of Gaza.
Is it because they can point out with some credibility the pro-Israel moves of President Trump during his time in office (the relocation of the US embassy to Jerusalem and the Abraham Accords), or is it simply that the Republican Party is less concerned with war than with other issues such as the economy? Is it because I'm not concentrating? Given the effects of inflation and war, this war probably won't have as much of an impact on Trump as it did on Biden.
However, President Trump has frequently used war as a wedge issue, and recently saying “Jews who vote for the Democratic Party or Jews who vote for Biden should have their heads searched. He (Biden) has completely abandoned Israel,” Trump said, adding that Trump is gaining support from Jewish voters. , it can be reasonably assumed that Biden will continue to focus on the conflict to further inflame the anger of his supporters.
In the end, the fate of the war remains unclear, specifically how much the fighting will intensify or if it will expand to further engulf the Middle East, but all indications are that this war will end in November. It shows that it will play a major role in the election and Biden's re-election. bid.
Even if the war doesn't overtake the economy, inflation, and immigration as voters' top concerns, the growing internal criticism of Biden and the size of the protest vote suggest that Biden is serious about these issues. It is clear that efforts are being made. It could be enough to endanger the voters he needs most and swing the election to Donald Trump.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic Party political consultant.
