Regardless of how favorable the right-wing press portrays it, the hush-money election interference trial scheduled for Monday does not bode well for Donald Trump's candidacy. Even considering Donald Trump's low expectations for moral consistency, the perception that the presidential candidate would have an obscene and highly publicized sexual relationship with a porn star with a name like Stormy Daniels cannot be called ideal. As a straight man, I advise my male friends to refrain from relationships with porn stars, primarily for health reasons. I don't know what women think about the whole issue of sex between presidential candidates and porn stars, but I don't think it's a positive thing.
Most expert forecasters have concluded that this election will be decided by close margins in two or three states. Indeed, it doesn't take a genius to come to this conclusion. Let's look at the past two presidential elections. In 2016, Mr. Trump won more electoral votes in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania because his vote totals were so small, but this was clearly with the help of Russian propaganda. In 2020, Biden won Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin by similar margins. The same thing will happen again in 2024. The only question is which states will be the most hotly contested.
It's true that Donald Trump has a strong and passionate base of supporters who would sacrifice everything in their lives to get him elected. To say MAGA Republicans are enthusiastic is an understatement. But the fact remains. These supporters allow him to vote only once. Trump's problem is simple. He's not attracting new voters.
The current political realities facing Donald Trump will inevitably doom his candidacy. Consider for a moment how some issues could sink his candidacy.
1. Stormy Daniels Trial
Within days, potential voters will be faced with the reality that the Republican presidential candidate was having sex with a famous porn star while his then-wife was home with their newborn son. The porn star will almost certainly testify about the details of the affair in lurid detail. Conservative Christian women won't like it. The same goes for secular women. And my guess is that men who think having sex with porn stars might be a good thing (not me) will almost certainly vote for Trump anyway. (I feel sorry for Stormy's girlfriend Ms. Daniels. Based on her interviews in the media and elsewhere, I think she's witty, fun, and charming.)
2. Dobbs' decision and abortion
In my opinion, nothing will hurt Trump's candidacy for president in 2024 more than the issue of abortion. President Trump boasts and publicizes the fact that he was the one who overturned Roe by filling the court with right-wing judges. he owns it.
But he is fully committed to the abortion issue. For several months, he passionately supported a federal ban on abortion after 16 weeks. After this political maneuver proved unpopular, he abandoned his support for federal prohibition and decided to go with whatever the states decided. But he reversed his position the day after Arizona voted to reinstate an 1864 law banning abortion.
Donald Trump will lose some votes as a result of his role in overturning Roe — and quite a lot. Most of these dissatisfied voters are women, but certainly not all.
3. January 6 riot and trial
There is no doubt that the January 6th riot will be a major issue in the next election. In battleground states, violent images and attacks on the government and those hired to protect it will continue to flood the airwaves. Donald Trump's opponents will not allow voters to forget what happened on that dark day and who was responsible for it.
The biggest wild card is whether the D.C. Insurrection Trials will take place before the election. If Jack Smith somehow succeeds in this effort, Trump's candidacy will be doomed. In my opinion, even Donald Trump cannot withstand such a constant onslaught of negative news. Regardless of the timing of the Jan. 6 insurrection trial, Mr. Trump is likely to lose the election, but if the trial takes place before the election, Mr. Trump absolutely cannot win.
