WASHINGTON — Voters will cast their ballots in six months, but a new poll by Marquette University School of Law shows Wisconsin's presidential election is likely to be another close contest.
Among registered voters surveyed, President Joe Biden had an approval rating of 49%, while former President Donald Trump had an approval rating of 51%, according to the data. Mr. Trump edged out Mr. Biden for first place, but there was a slight difference from Mr. Marquette's February poll, in which each candidate had a close race with 49%.
“A two-point difference is within a 4.8-point margin of error, so I would have to say this is a huge failure,” said Charles Franklin, head of polling at Marquette Law School.
Polls also showed Trump doing better on issues such as immigration, the Israel-Hamas war, the economy and foreign relations. Voters favor Biden over Trump on Medicare, Social Security, abortion policy and health care.
Even with third-party candidates in the mix, the race remains close. Of the five candidates considered, Robert F. Kennedy was supported by 13% of voters, while Jill Stein and Cornel West had single-digit support. In the five-way race, Trump still leads Biden by a narrow margin of 41% to 40%.
The poll also measured voter enthusiasm. Only 47% of registered Wisconsin voters surveyed said they were very excited to vote in November. Four years ago, this number was 20 points higher.
“I think there's some fatigue from having the same two candidates running again,” Franklin said. “But I also think that partisan divisions are making people more dissatisfied with politics in general.”
The Senate race is closer than some expected. Among registered voters surveyed, incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin leads Republican businessman Eric Hovde by 5 points, 52% to 47%. However, when looking at likely voters, the candidates were tied, with each receiving 50% of the vote.
“So Eric Hovde has a long way to go in this campaign to introduce himself to a majority of voters in the state,” Franklin said. “But with the party he represents and the state of party polarization these days, it’s a big boost for a lesser-known candidate who could benefit from fielding a Republican in the state.” In this case, it will be known that he is a Republican against Democrat Baldwin.'' And that gives them a lot of guidance. ”
The pollster interviewed 814 Wisconsin voters from April 3rd to 10th. The margin of error is +/- 4.8 percentage points.
Follow Charlotte Scott on Facebook X.
