According to the latest NBC News national poll, the percentage of voters who say they have a high level of interest in the 2024 election has reached its lowest point in nearly 20 years at this point in the presidential election, with a majority leaning toward Joe Biden. He has a negative view of both President Biden and Biden. Former President Donald Trump.
The poll also shows that Biden has narrowed his previous lead over Trump in head-to-head competition to just two points, compared to the previous poll, as the president bests Trump on issues of abortion and national unity. It is also shown that the improvement was within the margin of error. Meanwhile, the former Republican president is ahead of the curve in his ability and handling of inflation.
It also found that inflation and immigration are at the top of the list of the most important issues facing the country, with only a third of voters giving Biden credit for improving the economy.
But what stood out in the survey was how low voter interest and the independent candidacy of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could disrupt a stable presidential race with more than six months until Election Day. I'm saying that. Mr. Trump holds a 2-point lead over Mr. Biden in a head-to-head race, but in a five-way poll that includes Mr. Kennedy and other third-party candidates, Mr. Biden leads Mr. Trump by 2 points. ing.
“I don't think Biden has done much as president. And I feel like if Trump were elected, it would be the same as before Biden was elected,” said a Democrat who said he still voted for Biden. said supporter Devin Fletcher, 37, of Wayne, Michigan.
“I don't think there are any candidates that I would want to vote for,” Fletcher added.
Another poll taker in New Jersey, who declined to provide his name and voted for Biden in 2020, said he does not plan to vote in November.
“Our candidate is terrible. I have no interest in voting for Biden. He has done nothing. And I will never vote for Trump,” this voter said.
Jeff Horwitt, a Democratic pollster at Hart Research Associates, who conducted the study with Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, said, “Americans' opinions have become less unified these days. “Nothing unites the country more than voters' desire to organize this election.” Outside. “
The poll was conducted from April 12 to 16 and comes at a time of renewed upheaval in American politics, including the start of President Trump's criminal trial in New York, new attacks, and rising tensions in the Middle East.
According to the poll, 64% of registered voters are highly interested in the November election, registering a rating of 9 or 10 on a scale of 10 to 10.
This is lower than the 2008 (74%), 2012 (67%), 2016 (69%) and 2020 (77%) presidential elections that NBC News polls showed during the same period.
This issue dates back to the 2008 election cycle. The lowest level of interest in a presidential election polled during a presidential campaign was at 59% in March 2012. However, the trend quickly became more apparent in subsequent surveys.
Polls show that interest has been low and relatively flat for months this election cycle.
Republican pollster McInturff said the high level of interest in polls is “an indicator of high turnout” in the presidential election.
“It's very difficult to predict turnout this far into November, but all indications are that voter turnout will be lower than in 2020,” he said.
Current polls show that by party, 70% of self-identified Republicans say they have a high level of interest in the next election, compared to 65% of Democrats. are doing.
Only 36% of voters between the ages of 18 and 34 say they are very interested in elections, compared to 48% who are independent.
“It's not that they're less interested,” McInturff said of younger voters. “They are orders of magnitude lower.”
NBC News Poll: Frequently Asked Questions
Who conducts the NBC News poll?
Professional pollsters from Hart Research Associates and Public Opinion Strategies have collaborated to conduct and administer this poll since 1989 (1989-2004). (Until 2011, Coldwater Corporation was the leading Republican polling company.)
How are public opinion polls conducted?
Polling companies employ call centers where live interviewers speak to (usually) 1,000 respondents by cell phone or telephone. Respondents are randomly selected from a nationwide list of households and mobile phone numbers. Respondents are asked to name the youngest adult male or female in the household.
If you interview 1,000 respondents, how will you get a representative sample?
One of the questions critics of polls often ask is, “I wasn't interviewed, so why does this poll matter?” By interviewing 1,000 respondents and applying minimal weighting based on race, ethnicity, age, gender, education, and 2020 presidential vote, the poll has a 95% confidence level of error. We obtained a sample that is representative of the entire population.
Who will come up with the questions?
NBC News editors and reporters work with pollsters from Hart Research and Public Opinion Strategies to develop questions to understand the news and current events that NBC seeks to evaluate. . Both Hart Research and Public Opinion Strategies strive to ensure that the wording and placement of questions is as neutral as possible.
Biden narrows Trump's lead
Opinion polls also show that Trump has a narrow 2-point lead over Biden among registered voters, 46% to 44%, compared to Trump's 5-point lead in January (47% to 42%). It is declining.
The move is consistent with what other national polls have shown for the Trump-Biden race, with the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Mr. Trump has the biggest advantage among men (53% to 37%), white voters (54% to 37%), and white voters without a college degree (65% to 25%).
Biden has the biggest advantage among black voters (71% to 13%), women voters (50% to 39%) and Latino voters (49% to 39%).
According to the poll, both candidates have a similar split among independents (36% for Biden, 34% for Trump) and voters ages 18 to 34 (44% for Biden, 43% for Trump). One of the big mysteries in this poll is whether younger voters have defected from Biden (as the NBC News poll shows in multiple surveys) or whether Democrats maintain an advantage among this demographic. The question is, is it true?
When voting was expanded to five nominees, Mr. Biden had a 2 point lead over Mr. Trump, with 39% for Biden, 37% for Trump, 13% for independent Robert F. Kennedy, and 13% for independent candidate Robert F.・Mr. Stein 3% and Mr. Cornel West 2%.
Again, the results for Biden and Trump are within the poll's margin of error.
Notably, the poll shows that compared to Biden voters, head-to-head Trump voters were more likely to back Kennedy on the expanded vote, which is higher than several other This differs from the survey results.
(Read more about how Kennedy's candidacy will affect the 2024 race, according to polls.)
President's approval rating rises to 42%
Additionally, the poll showed that 42% of registered voters approved of Biden's overall job performance, indicating that Biden was at his lowest point in his presidential term. That's up 5 points from last month's NBC News poll.
Fifty-six percent of voters disapprove of his performance, down four points from January.
Biden's rise over the past few months comes from a key part of his 2020 This is especially true among Democrats and black voters. However, ratings remain low among Latinos (40% approval rating), young people (37%), and independents (36%).
“This overall polling data shows that Joe Biden is starting to gain some ground in rebuilding his coalition starting in 2020,” Democratic pollster Horwitt said. Ta. “The question is whether he can build on this momentum and make inroads with a group of voters whose support remains subdued.”
But Republican pollster McInturff said recent presidents have Candidates who lost re-election had higher approval ratings than Biden at this point in the election cycle: George H.W. Bush (43%) and Donald Trump (46%).
“President Biden is in a precarious position in the presidency and is in a difficult position as it relates to his re-election bid,” McInturff said.
On this issue, 39% of voters say they approve of Biden's handling of the economy, up from 36% in January. 28% approve of his handling of border security and immigration. And just 27% approve of his handling of the Israel-Hamas war (down from 29% in January).
Voters gave Biden the highest issue ratings. On the issue of student loan debt, 44% of respondents said they supported his handling of the issue, while 51% said they were against it.
Biden leads on abortion and unity.President Trump leads on inflation and capacity
The NBC News poll asked voters to decide which candidate is better on several different issues and attributes.
Biden holds a 15-point lead over Trump on abortion, and the president has a 9-point lead on his ability to unite the country, despite Biden's 24-point lead on this issue. It is inferior to. September 2020 NBC News Poll.
Trump, on the other hand, has the ability to handle crises (4 points), has a good track record (7 points), is competent and capable (11 points), and has the necessary mental and physical abilities. is leading in Good health to be president (19 points), dealing with inflation and cost of living (22 points).
Inflation and immigration will be the biggest problems in 2024
Inflation and the cost of living topped the list of issues in the poll, with 23% of voters saying it was the most important issue facing the country.
The other biggest issue with voters is Immigration and Border Situation (22%) — followed by Threats to democracy (16%), jobs and the economy (11%), abortion (6%), and health care (6%).
Additionally, 63% of voters say their family's income is below the cost of living, essentially unchanged from what polls showed in 2022 and 2023.
Fifty-three percent of voters say the domestic economy is not improving, while 33% say the economy is improving and Biden deserves credit for it, and another 8% say the economy is improving. Although he agrees that the president is doing well, he says he does not appreciate the president's accomplishments.
“If you look back to when all three kids were at home, now with only one child left at home, we're spending more than when we were a family of five,” she said. Poll respondent Art Fares, 45, of Florida, said he is likely to vote for Trump.
But another question: Are any issues important enough for you to vote for or against a candidate solely on that basis? — The top issue responses were protection of democracy and constitutional rights (28%) ), immigration and border security (20%), and abortion (19%).
In fact, 30% of Democrats, 29% of young voters, and 27% of women say they are single-issue voters on abortion.
Amanda Willis, 28, from Louisiana, said she would vote for Biden, saying, “I have a right to what I do with my body.” “And I don't believe other people should have the ability to judge that.”
Other poll results
- Trump's first criminal trial is currently underway, and 50% of voters say the former president is being treated by the same standard as everyone else regarding multiple legal challenges. In contrast, 43% of respondents believed that he was being unfairly targeted in this case.
- Fifty-two percent of voters have a negative view of Biden, while 53% have the same view of Trump.
- And Democrats and Republicans are essentially tied in their congressional preferences, with 47% of voters wanting Republicans to control Congress and 46% wanting Democrats to be in charge. Republicans held a 4-point lead on this question in January.
The NBC News poll was conducted April 12-16 among 1,000 registered voters nationwide (891 contacted by cell phone) and has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
