On April 24, 2024, the Republic of North Macedonia (RNM) will hold its seventh presidential election since it declared independence on September 8, 1991.
The total population of North Macedonia is 1,836,713 residents and 260,606 non-residents, while the number of voters is 1,814,317. The entire country constitutes her one electoral unit.
Seven candidates will compete for the presidential position: ● Stevo Pendarovski, co-candidate of the ruling party SDSM (Social Democratic Union of Macedonia) and the Coalition for the Future of Europe ● Gordana Syrzhanovska Davkova, candidate of the opposition right-wing VMRO, DPMNE (Macedonian Internal Revolutionary Organization – Democratic Party of Macedonian National Unity), supported by several coalition parties ● Candidate Bujar Osmani of DUI (Democratic Union for Integration) and the “European Front” coalition ● “Was ” coalition government of Arben Tarabari (Vren) ● Maksim Dimitrievskiy of the “I Know” movement (ZNAM – For Our Macedonia) ● Biljana Vankovska Cvetkowska of the Left Party ● Coalition “For Macedonia” Stefcho Jakimovski in “Be Brave for the People of North Macedonia” (North Macedonian People’s Choice).
The second round of voting for the presidential election will take place on May 8, 2024, in parallel with the regular parliamentary elections.
Pendarovsky stands alone against everything
Gordana Silzhanovska Davkova was carefully selected in the VMRO-DPMNE laboratory, and her public appearance reflects the obvious influence of Nikola Gruevsky and Giorgi Ivanov. Gruevsky serves as the political leader behind Siljanovska Davkova's policies, while Ivanov serves as her inspiration. Siljanovska Davkova, who holds both the qualifications of professor and doctor of jurisprudence, has submitted her candidacy for president to the State Electoral Commission of the Republic of North Macedonia, although she does not recognize the constitutional name of the Republic of North Macedonia. Ta. She remains vague on several other issues, trying to win over voters by presenting outdated policies reminiscent of Giorgi Ivanov rather than new ones. Siljanovska Davkova also maintains that the Prespa Agreement remains an unresolved issue and does not recognize the constitutional name of the Republic of North Macedonia.
Siljanovska Davkova has publicly advocated for a female president, while Bujar Osmani and Arben Tarabari have argued that the time has come for an Albanian to become president of the RNM. But instead of claiming a future president who represents all people, these candidates focus on misguided themes of emphasizing gender and ethnic principles. Notably, Bujar Osmani suggests that in the future the president should be elected by parliament, which would perpetuate the standard conditioning policy for drunk driving and thereby change Macedonian politics. It allows them to increase their influence over prominent politicians in the situation.
Most candidates' speeches convey a clear message. Their participation in the election is aimed at preventing Stevo Pendarovski from advancing to the second round of the presidential election.
Analysts believe that incumbent President Pendarovskiy, an offshoot of dissident centrist groups that oppose North Macedonia's Euro-Atlantic integration, is mainly trying to prevent him from participating in the second round of voting. It warns about the role of six rival candidates campaigning against President Rovski. Behind-the-scenes events in the Macedonian political scene confirm that some Albanians still work closely with VMRO-DPMNE and maintain communication/cooperation with Nikola Gruevski.
Stevo Pendarovsky represents a broad political and ethnic spectrum, which gives her an advantage over Silyanovska Davkova and other candidates. His political plan will build on the progress made to date, continue to accelerate the reforms initiated by the current government, promote inter-ethnic relations, and strengthen North Macedonia's international reputation while ensuring full EU membership. Aiming for membership. The president of the RNM should be the most respected politician, given his limited constitutional powers, and his influence in society and the nation depends on his reputation and authority. However, the statements of Siljanovska Davkova and other candidates hint at a potential tendency to represent only a portion of the RNM population, rather than the entire population of North Macedonia, which is a multi-ethnic, multi-religious and multilingual country. There is.
The upcoming presidential elections in the Republic of North Macedonia offer new opportunities that could disrupt the country's Euro-Atlantic path, which is particularly dangerous due to geopolitical upheavals in Europe and the world. , and this danger will further increase.
Personality and program election
TThe upcoming presidential elections in the Republic of North Macedonia will mark a new conflict between two rival political blocs, the center-left SDSM and the right-wing VMRO-DPMNE, as well as political struggles within Albania involving the Democratic Union of Unity (DUI). It symbolizes. and other parties have strong support from Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti (LVV). Presidential elections are unique in that they are highly dependent on political parties/coalitions and who represents their policies.
The Union, in conjunction with the SDSM, includes all ethnic communities living in North Macedonia (including, inter alia, Macedonians, Albanians, Bosniaks, Serbs, Turks, Vlachs, Roma, etc.) and therefore Stevo Pendarov. Strengthening Mr. Ski's presidential candidacy, the RNM and the political arena within the wider region.
For the RNM, individuals who disrupt or refuse to recognize the Prespa Agreement, which brought peace, stability and prosperity to the country, and who reject its constitutional name, the Republic of North Macedonia, will be subject to sanctions and the state Being in the system is extremely important. “blacklist' said the US government. For statements, interference, or acts that violate these Terms, Agreement between Prespa and Ohrid, US President Joseph Biden signed an executive order in 2021 that freezes the assets and bans entry into the US of individuals active in opposition to the Prespa Agreement and the Ohrid Framework Agreement. It is important to note that the State Department has made clear that this Executive Order applies not only to individuals in the Western Balkans that are putting the Prespa Agreement at risk, but also to individuals in other countries.presidential order[2] 14033 allows sanctions to be imposed anywhere against those who undermine stability in the Western Balkans, as long as they meet the relevant criteria. The Greek Parliament has not yet ratified the Memorandum of Understanding related to the Prespa Agreement.
Russian influence and influence of neighboring countries
Since the illegal invasion of Ukraine, Russia's influence in North Macedonia has declined. The peak of Russia's influence was revealed in September 2018 during a referendum on the name of the new constitution, the Republic of North Macedonia.
In the last presidential election in 2019, Russia was the clear favorite among presidential candidates. VMRO-DPMNE candidate Gordana Siljanovska Davkova and Stevo Pendarovsky, who was considered anti-Russian and pro-Western.
Russian influence operates primarily through social media channels. In the past year, there have been two serious cyber-attacks against important institutions, various organizations, schools and even the presidential palace, as well as banks and government agencies that store important files and data concerning Macedonian citizens. Occurred.
Russia's influence is currently less pronounced than it was in 2018 and 2019. Still, Russia's influence is expected to increase as we approach May 8, 2024, when the second round of presidential and parliamentary elections will be held simultaneously. Russia is the favorite in North Macedonian politics, as pro-Russian parties and individuals operate alongside pro-Western parties and individuals.
Over the past two and a half years, the Republic of North Macedonia has expelled 18 Russian diplomats with diplomatic status who are accredited as employees of the Federal Security Service (FSB). Russia's strategic interest lies in preventing the emerging states of the former Yugoslavia from joining the NATO alliance.
Discussions last year about Russian and Chinese influence in North Macedonia pointed out that the 2024 elections would be the target of a disinformation campaign from the Russian side, and that China would likely also be involved. This occurred to a somewhat weaker degree than expected. There are social media platforms with ties to Russia and its affiliates, making it difficult to fully investigate these connections. These platforms promote and defend Russia's national interests while opposing Macedonian interests due to North Macedonia's Western orientation, which Russia opposes. All neighboring countries strive to exert influence and representation in North Macedonia's political situation.
Without the Ukraine war, Russian interference in Macedonia's elections would have been even more intense. Over the past two years, since the invasion of Ukraine began, Russia has interfered in several key elections in Europe, including in France, Germany, and the Netherlands.
“Ivanovization” of the presidency
The international institute IFIMES considers the upcoming presidential elections in the Republic of North Macedonia to be of great importance for the future of the country. These elections will determine the continuation of positive political processes and changes, the accelerated pace of reforms, the country's new international status as a NATO member, and the progress of EU accession negotiations. A reversal of these developments could stall the democratic process, reintroduce obstruction, and return North Macedonia to the era before the overthrow of Nikola Gruevski.
Since the inauguration of the Zoran Zaev government (SDSM) in 2017, North Macedonia has achieved historic milestones. In particular, it signed the Treaty of Friendship, Good Neighborhood and Cooperation with Bulgaria and passed laws promoting the use of the languages of different ethnic communities. The Prespa agreement with Greece paved the way for a European-Atlantic integration process. North Macedonia became a formal member of NATO in March 2020 and has begun EU accession negotiations. The culmination of these historic achievements was the acquisition of independence for the Macedonian Orthodox Archdiocese of Ohrid (MOC-OA) in 2022.
Analysts expect rhetoric to escalate as the campaign draws to a close, highlighting the need to prevent conflict, violence and foreign interference, particularly from Russia and neighboring countries, which continue to seek to destabilize North Macedonia. It emphasizes gender. The successful presidential election marks another important step for North Macedonia in avoiding any “Ivanovization” of the country and consolidating its position as a pillar of peace, stability and a reliable NATO ally. It will be. This concern is underlined by the frequent interactions between presidential candidate Gordana Siljanovska Davkova and former President Djordje Ivanov, who inspires her and shares her experiences. The “Ivanovianization” of the presidential role represents a return to North Macedonia's troubled past, when the threat of civil war loomed.
[1] IFIMES – The International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Affairs, based in Ljubljana, Slovenia, has had special consultative status with the United Nations Economic and Social Council ECOSOC/UN in New York since 2018 and has been published in the international scientific journal “european perspective”
[2] Source: Executive Order on the Blocking of Property and Suspension of Entry into the United States of Certain Persons Contributing to Destabilization in the Western Balkans, Link: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021 /06 /08/Executive Order prohibiting entry into the United States and sealing off the property of certain individuals who have contributed to the destabilization of the situation in the Western Balkans/
