This could be the most unusual presidential election ever, and in some ways it already is. But it is clear that this election will lead this country down a path we have never seen before, with potentially dire consequences. Here are five possibilities.
It is possible that there will be an equal number of electors. Among political analysts, the winners of the 2024 presidential election are Georgia (16 votes), North Carolina (16 votes), Pennsylvania (19 votes), Michigan (15 votes), Wisconsin (10 votes), and Nevada ( 6), Arizona (11).
A presidential candidate needs to win 270 of the 538 electors to win. Therefore, if two candidates each received his 269 votes, they would have a tie.
Could that happen? Yes, but his 1824 election was the only one without an Electoral College winner since the passage of the 12th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, which improved procedures for selecting presidents and vice presidents, in 1804. .
Considering current state voting patterns, analysts believe President Joe Biden will enter the election with a chance of winning 226 electoral votes, while Donald Trump will win 219. The winner is expected to be determined by 93 votes in battleground states. For example, if Mr. Biden wins North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona, and Mr. Trump wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada, each state would receive 269 electoral votes. . Alternatively, if Mr. Biden wins Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona, and Mr. Trump wins Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Michigan, there would be a 269-vote tie.
Third-party candidates could change the outcome. The most talked about third-party presidential candidate is independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Additionally, 2016 Green Party candidate Jill Stein is seeking the Green Party nomination again, and independent Cornel West is also likely to be a Libertarian Party candidate.
Third-party candidates go through a process to appear on each state's ballot. Currently, Kennedy is only on the ballot in Hawaii, Michigan and Utah, but his campaign says he is close behind in six other states. Three of his states (Michigan, North Carolina, and Nevada) are battleground states. Mr. Kennedy and Mr. Stein could win more votes than Mr. Biden or Mr. Trump would win in one or more of those states.
It's happened before. The 2000 presidential election was held in Florida. George W. Bush defeated Vice President Al Gore by 537 votes. However, Green Party candidate Ralph Nader received 97,488 votes in the Sunshine State. If Mr. Nader had not entered the election, most of his supporters would have voted for Mr. Gore or stayed home, and Mr. Gore would likely have won.
According to the latest Real Clear Politics poll, Kennedy is winning between 7% and 9% of the vote in the four battleground states of Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. But polls differ on whether Kennedy hurts Biden or Trump more. Importantly, Kennedy, and perhaps Stein, could be a major spoiler for the winner in one or more states.
“Faithless electors” could change the outcome. After the November 5th election, electors will cast their votes on December 17th. In 48 states, electors vote for the candidate who wins their state. Two other states can split their votes.
However, there have been “faithless electors'' who voted for someone other than the state's winner, and according to SCOTUS.blog, there have been 35 in U.S. history, 10 of whom were in the 2016 election ( There were two Republicans and eight Democrats. They did not change the outcome of the election, but under the right conditions where it was possible.
Thirty-three states require electors to vote for the state's winner, while 17 states allow voting changes but may impose penalties. Among the battleground states, Georgia and Pennsylvania do not have laws against dishonest electors, but Michigan does count changed votes from dishonest electors.
Therefore, in the case of a 269-vote tie, one or more non-religious electors could cast a vote different from their state's, which would then be counted to determine who wins the election. Some of you may remember actor Martin Sheen appearing in a 2016 ad urging Trump voters to do just that.
The House of Representatives could decide the presidential winner. If no presidential candidate receives more than 270 electors, the election moves to the House of Representatives, where each state has one vote. Trump is likely to win because House Republicans currently control more states than Democrats.
However, that vote will not be taken by the current House of Representatives, but by the House of Commons that will be sworn in in January 2025. The House could flip to Democratic control next year, even though more states are likely to be led by Republicans.
The Senate could decide the winner for vice president. And one more point. Under the 12th Amendment, the Senate votes for vice president, with each of her 100 senators entitled to a vote. Democrats currently have a majority in the Senate, but that could change next year as far more Democratic senators than Republicans are running for office. However, if the Senate is tied 50-50 in 2025, incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris will cast the deciding vote as Senate President until her inauguration. Will she cast the winning vote for herself, resulting in a Republican president and Democratic vice president?
Granted, all scenarios are highly unlikely, but at least possible. And given how strange this election has been so far, we can't rule anything out.
Merrill Matthews is a resident researcher at the Institute for Policy Innovation in Dallas, Texas. Follow him on X@MerrillMatthews.
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