Both Joe Biden and Donald Trump campaigned in Pennsylvania in the days leading up to Tuesday's primary election. This reflects the important role the state is expected to play in November, and the move has helped boost candidates who have previously voted against them in key battleground states.
But analysts say the key to a high-stakes victory in Pennsylvania's Senate race may lie in the candidate's ability to weather a presidential downturn led by two deeply unpopular figures. Says.
“There's a lot of gravity pulling you down,” said Chris Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Public Opinion Institute in Allentown. Borick said the race will largely depend on how the two Senate candidates navigate the political headwinds posed by the presidential election.
“A lot of your destiny is tied to being number one on that ticket,” he said.
There was little drama in Tuesday's primary election, with neither Senate nor presidential candidates facing challengers, but the results officially pit Democratic incumbent Sen. Bob Casey Jr. against Republican challenger David McCormick. The stage was set for an important showdown. Control of the United States Senate.
Preparing to vote: See who's running for president and compare their positions on important issues with our voter guide
The dynamics of this high-profile race, expected to be one of the most expensive in the nation, are also deeply intertwined with the presidential race, as Pennsylvania looks poised to once again decide the White House. ing.
more:President Biden throws out 'Mar-a-Lago values' in Pennsylvania court case with Trump
“It's going to be competitive,” said Jessica Taylor, Senate editor and analyst at Cook Political Report. “But the good news for Democrats is that the (Senate) battleground states coincide with the presidential election and are the states where Mr. Biden has the highest approval ratings. But this is a very expensive election, so Democrats can never take that for granted.”
Cook Political Report rates the Senate race as “leaning” toward the Democratic Party. But the newspaper said the presidential race, one of only six true toss-up races in the country, is getting closer.
This rating reflects the conventional wisdom that Mr. Casey is better positioned than Mr. Biden to do well in Pennsylvania.
That idea is borne out by political polls conducted in recent months, with Mr. Casey consistently leading Mr. McCormick by between 5 and 17 points, but Mr. Biden's results are more uncertain.
Some polls have Mr. Trump leading by up to 4 percentage points, while others have Mr. Biden leading by up to 10 percentage points. A moving average of Pennsylvania presidential polls by Real Clear Politics shows Biden at 46.5% and Trump at 46%.
But even though Mr. Casey currently leads Mr. Biden, Mr. Taylor said the president's policies are largely predictive of the behavior of the candidates he votes against.
He noted that every state that voted Republican for president in 2016 also voted for Republican Senate candidates, a trend that held true for Democrats as well.
In 2020, Maine became the only state in which voters chose candidates from different parties for the Senate and president, when it elected Republican Susan Collins to the Senate and Biden to the presidency.
“What we're seeing across the board is that Senate Democrats are ahead of Biden in almost every state, including (Pennsylvania) from what we've seen so far,” Taylor said. . “But the presidential election is seen to be very closely aligned with the Senate race, and I still think that's one of the best predictors we have, at least for now. Masu.”
Will Bob Casey Jr. be able to convince enough people to split their tickets in the Pennsylvania Senate race?
Casey is well known as a politician with deep roots in Pennsylvania. The son of a two-term governor, he served as state auditor and treasurer before being elected to the Senate in 2006 and is currently seeking his fourth term.
A close ally of Mr. Biden, Mr. Casey, both from Scranton, has supported the president's top priorities in Congress while maintaining a moderate approach to policy.
J.J. Balaban, a Democratic strategist and political ad creator, said under fire: “Nobody cares about Bob Casey, and they don't think he's going to bowl with AOC.” He spoke while referring to the progressive U.S. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Casey currently controls the chamber with a slim 51-49 majority, a must-have seat for Democrats who have no margin for error as they navigate a difficult electoral landscape.
Mr. Balaban said Mr. Casey could normally help persuade his supporters to split their votes, something that becomes increasingly difficult in an era of polarized politics.
“In every state in the country, you've seen the number of people trying to split tickets significantly lower than it was a few decades ago,” he says. “But it's not yet zero.”
But he said Casey's campaign record shows he can outperform other Democrats in the race.
“He's likely to do it again,” Balaban said. “The question is, by how much?”
According to a March Wall Street Journal poll, 36% of registered voters in Pennsylvania view Biden favorably, but a much larger number, 59%, view him unfavorably.
“I feel that Sen. Casey's reelection is much better than the President's reelection in this state because he has been on the ballot frequently and has shown an ability to outperform. And that is what is needed,” Balaban said.
But that doesn't mean he takes it for granted.
“We fully expect this to be a well-funded, competitive and heated campaign,” he said.
more:Mr. McCormick has loaned his campaign $2 million so far, but he lags behind Mr. Casey in campaign financing.
David McCormick approves of Donald Trump's support, but isn't too firm about it
McCormick, a former hedge fund CEO, spent about $14 million of his own money in the 2022 Republican Senate primary, but lost to Mehmet Oz, a famous surgeon endorsed by Trump.
Oz ultimately lost to Democratic Sen. John Fetterman, but many believed that McCormick would have been a stronger challenger.
This year, he cleared the way for him to attack his opponents and begin building a war chest rather than run a potentially damaging primary campaign that could eliminate Republican candidates.
Mr. McCormick is considered the strongest Republican challenger to Mr. Casey to date, due to his vast personal wealth and proven fundraising ability.
Already, he has sought to link Casey to Biden, slamming him as a “rubber stamp” on the president and, ultimately, political insiders.
But he, too, will have to walk a fine line on the presidential ticket.
McCormick endorsed Trump earlier this month while the former president was campaigning in Pennsylvania. A blessing as McCormick seeks to strengthen his MAGA base, but a potential curse as he seeks to win over suburban women and moderates who have fled Trump in recent years. There is also.
It's a turnaround for Trump, who slammed McCormick in his 2022 primary race against Oz as a “special interest, globalist, Washington establishment candidate.”
McCormick did not attend the rally, keeping his distance but quietly stressing the need to embrace Trump's support.
According to Politico, McCormick's campaign plans to build a broad coalition and tap into suburban moderates and independent voters that Trump has been unable to reach, while relying on Trump to boost turnout among his base. Stated.
“If President Trump doesn't perform well, his path will become more difficult. That's just the reality,” Bolick said.
Brianne Pfannenstiel is the chief political reporter for the Des Moines Register. She's also covering her 2024 presidential campaign as USA TODAY's senior national election correspondent. Contact us at bpfann@dmreg.com or 515-284-8244. Follow @brianneDMR on Twitter.
