Why It Matters: Washoe County, Nevada and the Presidential Election | USA 2024

Much of the attention each presidential election cycle focuses on battleground states, whose results can have a big impact on winning the White House. But candidate campaigns and political analysts are also focusing on smaller areas where factors such as demographics and turnout could play a key role in the ultimate outcome of the race.

Enter a battleground county. Often, but not always, these geographic puzzle pieces are part of a larger swing state. These can provide clues about broader patterns among key groups, such as Hispanic voters and blue-collar workers, as well as the strength of parties' turnout infrastructure and where they choose to invest. In some cases, the key may simply be the historical strength of a political party in a particular county. If a party falls short of its historical vote share in key counties, it risks losing 270 electoral votes in the state and larger national races.

As the 2024 presidential election approaches, and a rematch between incumbent President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is likely, U.S. News will shine a spotlight on 13 battleground counties across the country and look at their performance in past presidential elections. We examine them and explain why they're important this year.

Among the presidential battleground states, Nevada has the least number of electors at six. But since 2000, the state has been bitterly contested in four of the six presidential elections. In 2000, 2004, 2016 and 2020, the winner in Nevada had a 2-3 point lead over the loser, but former President Barack Obama won by 12 points in two races in 2008 and 2012. They won against Nevada State by a point and six points.

Clark County, which includes Las Vegas and the surrounding area, is home to nearly three-quarters of Nevada's population. Meanwhile, less than 16% of Nevada's population lives in Washoe County, which includes Reno. But Mr. Washoe has often served as the deciding factor between Clark County, a Democratic stronghold, and those living in Republican-heavy counties known as “rural,” which make up about 10% of the state, making the state a popular choice for voters. This is an extremely important part.

In recent years, “whatever ground Republicans gained in Clark, they lost in Washoe,” said David Damore, a political scientist at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. After George W. Bush won Nevada both times he ran, Democrats won the next four presidential elections. Washoe's Democratic-leaning moves in recent election cycles have helped keep Nevada a blue state for the most part, but it's close enough to keep Republican hopes alive.

“Washoe is the only purple county in the state to lead the charge,” said Jeremy Gelman, a political scientist at the University of Nevada, Reno. “The Washoe swing reflects state-wide politics more generally, so a win often portends a win.”

Approximately 55% of Washoe County's population lives in Reno, with a population of 273,000 people, making it the third largest city in the state after Las Vegas and the Las Vegas suburb of Henderson. The second largest city in Washoe County is Sparks with 109,000 residents. Washoe County has a total area of ​​6,542 square miles, but its population is concentrated near Lake Tahoe in the southern part of the county. Stretching north to the Oregon border, this long strip of land is largely uninhabited.

In the 20th century, Reno became known nationally as a place for rapid marriages and divorces (and as a place where legal brothels were occasionally established). Like Clark County, casinos are a big part of Washoe's economy, but in recent years they have become increasingly associated with high technology. Tesla has built a “gigafactory” in Washoe County to manufacture electric motors, vehicle powertrains and batteries. Since then, other engineering companies have moved nearby.

As local jobs requiring bachelor's degrees crowd out hospitality jobs at casinos, Washoe County has become increasingly Democratic, following a national pattern of highly educated voters voting Democratic. In Washoe, 32.5% of residents have a bachelor's degree, significantly higher than Clark County's 26.4%. “The Gigafactory employs a lot of engineers as well as line workers,” Gelman says.

The percentage of black residents in Washoe County (3%) is lower than in Nevada (about 11%) and the United States as a whole (about 14%). But Washoe is more than a quarter Hispanic. Median incomes and home prices are above both Nevada and the United States, and poverty is less prevalent.

Washoe County has been in a state of turmoil since the recent presidential election. In 2000 and 2004, they supported Bush by 10 and 4 points, and in 2008 and 2012, they supported Obama by 12 and 4 points. However, the county became more Democratic during the Trump administration. Hillary Clinton defeated Trump in the county in 2016 by just over 1 percentage point, but four years later Biden won by about 5 percentage points.

“In the last few decades, Washoe has moved from a red county to a purple county,” Gelman said.

Washoe also played a key role in the 2022 midterm elections. In that year's U.S. Senate race, incumbent Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto could credit her re-election to the county. He won by more than 8,600 votes, which was larger than the statewide margin of about 7,900 votes.

In the gubernatorial race, incumbent Democrat Steve Sisolak won the county by nearly 2,800 votes, but lost in the state to Republican challenger Joe Lombardo by more than 15,000 votes.

Gelman predicts a “highly nationalized” campaign, but Nevada's history of economic booms and busts suggests the economy could be a particularly big issue this year. ing.

Washoe County's recent growth in the technology economy has made “college-educated Democrats increasingly key players,” Gelman said. “Nevada is not a particularly religious state, so the issues that energize the religious right don’t have as much resonance here.”

Nevada will hold another high-profile Senate race in 2024, with Democrat Jacky Rosen seeking a second term. Her race ranks as one of the most competitive in the country, and the contest is expected to raise a lot of money and generate extensive publicity.

Clark County is the only politically important county in Nevada, where Democrats must amass enough votes to erase extremely high levels of Republican support in sparsely populated “rural” areas.