A voter casts a ballot for the 2024 presidential primary election at the Orange Public Library Voting Center on Tuesday, March 5, 2024, in Orange. (Photo by Mark Reitmeyer for Orange County Register/SCNG)
Orange County voters voted for former President Donald Trump over President Joe Biden in the primary election. But political experts say that doesn't necessarily pose a problem for a sitting president.
Mr. Trump received the most votes in Orange County out of about 40 eligible voters in the presidential primary, with 236,456 votes, beating Mr. Biden by just about 18,500 votes.
But other factors also contribute to the success of presidential general elections, such as higher turnout among young people, non-white groups, and women. Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data, said the general election will bring about a “different world of people.”
Related: Biden or Trump? Check out this map to see who and where OC primary voters chose.
“In general, we would expect to see increased turnout from more young voters, Latinos, more renters, more less affluent voters, and Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents,” he said. said.
John Gould, dean of the University of California CI School of Social Ecology, said it would be a mistake to rely solely on the results of the primary to predict the outcome of the general election.
For one thing, Republican candidates in the primary were boosted by increased turnout. In Orange County, Republican turnout in the presidential primary was 49%, more than 10 percentage points higher than Democratic turnout, which hovered around 36%. Statewide Republican turnout was about 47%.
“What we often see in primaries is that the people who are most likely to vote in less-contested elections tend to be older, and they tend to be people who are really, really attached to the candidates. , Mr. Trump has a core group of supporters among them, and they're very excited about it,” Gould said.
But he predicted more motivated Democrats could vote in November.
“It's one thing to come out in a primary where it's Biden versus nobody. It's another thing to come out when it's Biden and someone they hate with a passion,” Gould said. Told.
But that doesn't mean Orange County will inevitably become a blue county, Gould said. Data from the March 5 primary show Orange County is still cementing its recent purple reputation.
In the last midterm elections, Orange County voters rejected Gov. Gavin Newsom and other Democrats on the state ballot and chose Republican candidates for lieutenant governor, secretary of state, treasurer, attorney general, and insurance commissioner. .
This year, voters chose former Dodger Steve Garvey, the Republican candidate for the vacant U.S. Senate seat, and Republican Scott Baugh for the 47th Congressional District.
Still, by the numbers, Orange County is a bluish-purple. Four of the county's six contiguous Congressional districts are represented by Democrats, and nine of Orange County's 16 state House and Senate districts are Democratic. Registered Democrats also outnumber registered Republicans in Orange County, 37.4% to 33.6%.
This may partly explain why Trump has never been able to come out on top in Orange County's general elections. In Orange County, Hillary Clinton and Biden won over Trump in 2016 and 2020, respectively, after a drought of Democratic presidents dating back to the days of Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936.
“If you read the data, I think voters here simply don’t like President Trump,” Gould said. “He's a flawed messenger for Republicans. If there's a more credible Republican candidate, or if Democrats reveal strong feelings toward him, Republicans could win here. We certainly won.”
By the time the California primary began, preparations for a rematch between Biden and Trump in the fall were already largely in place.
Related: Why California voter turnout is so low this year
California Republican voters still had 12 Republican candidates remaining as of February's vote, but former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley was the only Republican challenger to Trump left in the race. was. Technology entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, once considered potential candidates, suspended their respective campaigns in January.
Haley made a last-minute pitch to Southern California voters ahead of Super Tuesday, but Trump still held a strong lead among Republican voters in Orange County and across the state.
Haley only won one district in Orange County. Only 12 votes were cast in the small area of La Palma.
In other races, the votes went to Trump or Biden, or were tied.
“This could very well have been driven more by the calendar than anything else,” said Dan Schnur, who teaches politics at the University of Southern California and has worked as a strategist on past presidential campaigns.
“If a primary election had been held before a candidate was chosen, the numbers likely would not have been as conclusive,” Schnurr said.
It wasn't that long ago that California moved up its presidential primary to make it more competitive.
Congress voted in 2017 to change it to Super Tuesday, the first Tuesday after the first Monday in March, Election Day when the most states hold their primary elections.
Presidential primaries were held in June in 2016 and 2012, and in February in 2008. It was held in March in 2004, 2000 and 1996. It was June, 1992.
When the state last moved its primary to early March, the idea was twofold. The goal was to increase voter turnout and allow candidates to spend more time campaigning for California voters.
Alex Padilla, now a senator and then-California secretary of state, said at the time that “as candidates seek the highest office in our country, they will not be able to ignore our nation's largest and most diverse state.” .