Photo illustration: Intelligencer.Photo: Getty Images
The war between Israel and Hamas has become a permanent fixture in US political discourse over the past six months. President Joe Biden has spoken out against a small but visible minority of Democrats who oppose support for Israel, which is waging war in Gaza, and a small but visible minority of Democrats who support Israel and suppress pro-Palestinian campus protests. It has come under fire from both Republicans who say it is not doing enough. But despite all the noise and heat surrounding the issue, it remains unclear whether the Middle East conflict will be a factor in November's presidential election.
Polling on Americans' attitudes toward the conflict and its domestic impact is volatile and difficult to compare, as different polling organizations approach the issue from very different angles. But the “saliency” of this issue as an issue that could push a significant number of voters in this direction, or at best questionable.
There is no doubt that American public opinion has slowly evolved from strongly pro-Israel in the immediate aftermath of the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel to a hostile and mixed assessment of Israel's war effort since then. do not have. Already by November, Gallup found that American support for Israel's war in Gaza had deteriorated significantly, with 50% supporting Israel's military operation and 45% disapproving. . By March of this year, the ratio of support to disapproval had fallen to 36% in favor and 55% in disapproval. On the other hand, Americans' traditional reflexive sympathy for Israel when it is at war is similarly undermined. As of February, Pew magazine found that 57 percent of Americans sympathize with “both Israelis and Palestinians at least to some degree or equally.”
Almost every study on this topic reveals significant generational divides regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. People under 30 have higher sympathy for Palestinians and lower sympathy for Israelis. Opposes Israeli military operations in Gaza by a wide margin. It also opposes the United States' unconditional military aid to Israel. A Pew survey earlier this month found that “six in 10 adults under 30 have a positive view of Palestinians, compared with a more positive view of Israelis. It was shown that 46% of Meanwhile, only 16% of adults under 30 support the United States providing military aid to Israel to support the war against Hamas, compared to 16% of adults over 65. That's 56%.
Young voters' dissatisfaction with Biden's policies on the Israel-Gaza conflict, although not well-documented, is compounded by the clear pro-Palestinian leanings of non-white voters, further widening the partisan divide on Middle East policy. . The aforementioned March Gallup poll found that 64% of Republicans still approve of Israel's military operations in Gaza, while 75% of Democrats disapprove. To the extent that Biden is perceived to be America's most prominent supporter of Israel in the conflict, this disconnect with Biden's own party base could potentially be a source of friction within the Democratic Party and undermine Democratic enthusiasm for Biden's reelection. may have a negative impact. The problem is likely to extend far beyond the relatively small number of “uncommitted” voters who explicitly condemned or sought to reverse the president's position on what is happening in Gaza in this year's Democratic presidential primaries.
But more recently, especially after recent exchanges, voices of support for Israel have become increasingly vocal, suggesting that Republican politicians have lent a hand to Biden, or that at least pro-Palestinian voters have turned to Biden out of anger at the president. This may have reduced the possibility of being reviewed. A fire breaks out between Israel and Iran. Republicans have become even more vocal about taking a so-called “anti-Israel” stance, calling for repressive and punitive action against pro-Palestinian protesters. Also, the independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the most visible “third option” for voters dissatisfied with the two major parties, was staunchly pro-Israel throughout the entire Gaza war. Involved.
But is the war between Israel and Hamas a voting issue for enough people to significantly influence the outcome of November's election, or a reason not to vote at all? Available data on issue salience do not provide much evidence that it is a top priority for many voters.
A March 29 Gallup poll asked respondents to identify “the most important issue facing this country today.” “Middle East War” tied for 13th place with just 2%. In many cases, pollsters are reluctant to address the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a standalone concern, instead lumping it in with other foreign policy concerns and national security threats. However, foreign policy in general appears to be less remarkable. A mid-April Economist/YouGov poll found that just 1% of Americans think some or all foreign policy issues are “most important to me.” A national poll in late April that included all national security issues and foreign policy found that 6% of voters thought foreign policy was most important in determining their presidential preferences. But who knows what that means now that Republicans are stirring up all sorts of national security concerns.
Perhaps the most surprising data comes from the highly reliable, large-sample Harvard Youth Poll, released on April 19th.
Polling shows that two issues that are closely related to voters under 30, the Israel-Hamas war and student debt relief, may not be particularly important in terms of voting.
Biden received a positive rating (39%) for his efforts to reduce student debt, but a negative rating (18%) for his response to the war in Gaza. However, young people ranked these as the least important of the problems facing the country. According to the poll, a majority of respondents said inflation, health care and housing were their top three choices, followed by gun violence.
Specifically, voters under the age of 30 ranked “Israel/Palestine” 15th out of 16 “major issues” asked about their importance. A Pew survey on the subject in March pointed to low levels of interest and information about the Middle East among this age group.
Only 14% of people under 50 say they follow the war very or very closely, about half the share of people over 50 (30%). Consistent with declining attention spans, younger Americans are less likely to know important facts about ongoing wars, based on responses to three knowledge questions included in the survey.
Undoubtedly, perceptions of presidential candidates and their political parties can be subtly influenced by their positions and actions on this and related issues. Biden's efforts to broker a broader regional peace deal could strengthen his reputation as an internationalist and effective diplomat. Republican incitement of campus protesters could strengthen the party's issue advantage on crime. But even if the coverage continues to draw attention to the genocide in Gaza and its root causes, it doesn't look like a game-changer for the election at this point.
see all
