WASHINGTON – The Republican presidential candidate is on trial for hush money payments and election interference, and could face a prison sentence.
He is being sued for more than $500 million in damages in bank fraud, defamation and sexual abuse lawsuits.
He also faces overwhelming opposition from former White House aides who have accused him of mishandling classified information and trying to steal the 2020 election from President Joe Biden. Further trials are scheduled.
Despite issues that would have doomed other candidates, Donald Trump, the presumptive 2024 Republican White House nominee, is essentially tied with Biden with just over six months until Election Day. ing. That has led political observers to question whether the former president will be able to maintain support among moderate voters, or whether he will cut into Biden's support as he seeks a second term. ing.
“Is the race a tie? Is the race a tie? Nothing means anything anymore,” “Saturday Night Live” star Colin Jost said while hosting the White House Correspondents' Association dinner over the weekend. I joked.
Preparing to vote: See who's running for president and compare their positions on important issues with our voter guide
Why are Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden “almost evenly matched”?
Pollsters and political analysts have cited a number of reasons why the race between Trump and Biden is so close, the first of which is that voters care more about Biden and the economy than they do about Trump. One example is having a
A Wall Street Journal poll released earlier this month found that many voters think Mr. Trump is better suited than the current president to deal with inflation and rising costs.
Liz Maher, an anti-Trump Republican political consultant, said an analysis of recent polls shows independent voters are more concerned about Biden's management of the economy than they are about Trump's criminal charges.
“Independents are very nervous about the economy, and Biden is doing nothing to allay their concerns,” Maher said.
But pollsters and other experts explained that the dynamic is not about voters ignoring Trump's criminal trial in favor of the economy. Rather, Mr. Trump has effectively portrayed his own indictment as politically motivated, although that could change if he is convicted in his ongoing hush money trial in New York.
Trump has attacked the justice system since he was first indicted in March 2023, and polls show he has persuaded enough of the public to remain competitive with Biden. , they said.
“The weaknesses of one candidate seem to be offsetting the weaknesses of the other candidate,” said Tim Malloy, a polling analyst at Quinnipiac University. “If you weigh the positives and negatives, in the end the candidates are almost evenly matched.”
Despite the many changes in party politics brought about by President Trump's tenure, the country remains roughly even between Republicans and Democrats, with the roughly 50-50 split evident for decades. The election race has become very close.
Almost evenly matched at this point
Trump remains politically up and down as he faces off against Biden, and some would argue that Trump actually has the lead at this point.
At the national level, Mr. Trump leads Mr. Biden by 1 percentage point (46% to 45%), according to Real Clear Politics' average of recent polls.
Experts still stress that the president will be elected state by state. Although Trump lost the national popular vote in both previous presidential elections, he defeated Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in the 2016 electoral college.
Nevertheless, a CNN poll released Sunday showed Trump with his largest lead yet, 6 points, 49% to 43%.
Trump's lead increases to 9% when third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are added, according to CNN. Meanwhile, other polls show that Mr. Kennedy stole more votes from Mr. Trump than Mr. Biden, which is why Mr. Trump began attacking RFK Jr. on a daily basis.
Dissatisfied with both candidates
Overall, the 2024 presidential election is currently being pushed back, and that trend is likely to continue until the November 5th election. Given what Malloy described as “widespread dissatisfaction with both candidates,” any number of developments could determine the outcome.
Poll after poll shows Americans are not enthusiastic about a rematch between Trump and Biden in 2020.
President Trump is weighed down by escalating rhetoric, including criminal cases and threats to become a dictator on the “day one” of his second term, but that didn't necessarily pave the way for Biden, Malloy explained. did.
“Biden's approval ratings are low even though the economy is improving.'' He also said that the age issue is working against the 81-year-old Biden more than the 77-year-old Trump, and that voters are He said he seemed more concerned about Biden's health than the former president.
What does the future hold for the 2024 election?
Will Trump or Biden manage to get the election through by November? Experts say there are several key factors that could tilt potential candidates in the coming months as undecided voters consider candidates.
Analysts said there was “nostalgia” among the options. CNN reported, “55% of all Americans now think Trump's presidency was a success, while 44% think it was a failure.”
Some of the former president's opponents have formed groups such as “Republican Voters Against Trump,” but he said too many have forgotten the turmoil and scandals of his presidential term.
Tony Frankis, a spokesman for Republican Voters Against Trump, said Biden and his allies need to boost Trump's unfavorable ratings by steadily reminding voters of the “crazyness” of the time. Stated.
“There is plenty of time to work on reminding voters of the frustrations people feel with Biden, but even greater frustrations with Trump,” he said.
Another important future development is the jury's decision in Trump's trial.
A Quinnipiac poll released last week (46% to 46% but the race was decided) found that 5% of Trump voters would be less likely to vote for him if the former president was convicted in this case. It turned out that the answer was “Yes.”
A 5% change could be decisive, especially in swing states that will decide the outcome of the election, such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, and perhaps North Carolina.
Political scientist Lara Brown, author of “Jockeying for the American Presidency: The Political Opportunism of Aspirants,” said polls also show an “enthusiasm gap” in which Trump supporters outnumber Biden supporters. He said it means he's excited about his candidacy.
But it also means there is room for Biden's support to grow.
“Trump consistently appears to be voting at (or near) the upper end of his support range, while Biden appears to be voting at (or near) the lower end of his support range,” Brown said.
In any case, the race is likely to remain close as pollster Frank Luntz describes both candidates as having problems with voters.
“At this point, no one knows who's going to win,” Lantz said. “Each candidate has serious flaws.”
