Over the past five years, Panama has weathered the COVID-19 pandemic, paralyzing protests nationwide, and a drought that brought traffic on its famous canals to a standstill.
But on Sunday, the latest developments in the presidential election will mark a tumultuous time for this lean Central American country.
Eight candidates are vying to replace outgoing President Laurentino Cortizo, who is limited to five-year terms.
The frontrunner among the presidential candidates is former Security Minister José Raul Mulino, who has entered the race to replace embattled former President Ricardo Martinelli.
The former president was sentenced to 10 years in prison for money laundering and was a front-runner until his campaign was made illegal under Panamanian law.
Mulino, Martinelli's former running mate, is now leading the race in his stead. An April poll by Gallup put him in the lead with support from 29% of voters.
Other candidates include a number of government officials. For example, in second place is fellow former president Martín Torrijos, with 14 percent of voters supporting him.
Current Vice President José Gabriel Carrizo is also running, but polls show him lagging behind with just 5% support. All but one of the candidates are considered conservative, with leading economist Maribel Gordon the only representative on the left.
Still, anyone could win this race. According to a Gallup poll, 22% of voters are undecided, and the president's seat will be determined by a single vote without a runoff.
What issues will shape this year's race? Al Jazeera analyzes voters' top concerns.
government corruption
Gallup found that corruption is the number one concern driving Panamanians to the polls this election cycle, with 57 percent of respondents identifying corruption as the main issue affecting the country.
The nonprofit organization Transparency International ranks Panama in the bottom half of all countries on its corruption index.
And in 2015, United Nations officials estimated that the country loses 1 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP), or about $520 million, each year to corruption.
Panama's Social Security Fund (CSS) is often cited as an example. Last week, for example, the Attorney General's Office announced the arrest of three agency employees after an investigation uncovered evidence of bribery.
“CSS is a source of funding for corruption,” economist Felipe Argote told Al Jazeera.
“There are a lot of people in the facility.” botellainefficient and too expensive,” he added, using Panamanian slang for someone who collects a paycheck without working.
But while all eight presidential candidates have vowed to fight corruption, some have faced allegations of wrongdoing themselves.
One of the candidates, lawyer and former judge Zuray Rodriguez, is currently under investigation for money laundering and embezzling 66kg (146 pounds) of gold from clients.
Meanwhile, Torrijos has previously come under intense scrutiny for his ties to Brazilian construction company Odebrecht, which has been accused of bribing officials across Latin America in exchange for lucrative contracts.
Experts say systemic corruption in Panama has a direct impact on election results. Transparency International estimated in a 2019 report that 23 percent of Panamanians were offered some form of bribe in exchange for their vote.
“It's unusual to see people in campaign hats and T-shirts handing out pamphlets on the streets without being paid,” political scientist Claire Nebash told Al Jazeera.
Part of the problem, she explained, is the disparity between rich and poor Panamanians. Due to poverty, some people try to curry favor with politicians.
“Panama's great inequality drives great patronage,” Nevas said.
“For many people with poor connections and low levels of education, the only way to get a job is in the public sector. So you have the expectation that your local councilor or congressman will give you or your relatives a job if you take charge.” participate in the election campaign.”
economic concerns
Despite Panama's low inflation rate and sustained economic growth, the World Bank ranks it as the third most unequal country in Latin America, after Brazil and Colombia.
Economic growth last year was 7.3%, but growth has been uneven, with 12.9% of Panamanians continuing to live in poverty, earning less than $6.85 a day.
Unemployment rates have improved as well, with the World Bank showing unemployment falling to 7.4% from more than 18% in 2020.
However, the group said the quality of employment “continues to show signs of deterioration” and the labor market “has not improved across all demographic groups.”
“Youth unemployment is over 50 percent,” says economist and former student leader Iliana Coria. “This rate is much higher than the general unemployment rate.”
Although general unemployment has declined since the pandemic, nearly half of the workforce is without a contract. Instead, workers are forced to take informal jobs with little protection or stability.
It also means fewer workers contribute to public funds through payroll deductions. But critics say the eight presidential candidates have balked at addressing the deep fiscal problems facing Panama.
“None of the candidates has presented a concrete proposal,” former finance minister Pablo Cortés told Al Jazeera. “One of the accepted realities is that nations must cooperate.”
Cortés also noted that the international organization Fitch recently downgraded Panama's credit rating, citing problems such as “political divisions” and “weak institutions.”
A decline in credit ratings is likely to increase the interest rates the government must pay, placing further strain on public finances.
“The government's high debt burden and recent loss of investment grade status will also reduce the state's ability to address other public necessities,” Cortez said.
mining controversy
Fitch also cited controversial mine closures in its decision to downgrade Panama's credit rating.
This place, known as Cobre Panama, was one of the largest copper mines in the world. Previously, it accounted for 5% of Panama's gross domestic product.
But the country's highest court ruled in November that the 20-year mining contract was unconstitutional. Shortly after, authorities ordered it closed.
“The mines are hibernating, waiting for a new president,” said Raisa Banfield, an environmental activist and former deputy mayor of Panama City.
While all presidential candidates have said they support the Supreme Court's ruling, Banfield said some have shown potential conflicts of interest.
For example, Vice President Carrizo admitted that he served as a lawyer for Petaquila Minerals, the former owner of the mine.
Another candidate, former Foreign Minister Romulo Lu, was part of a law firm that advised the mine's most recent owner, Canadian group First Quantum, on land acquisition.
“Ricardo Lombana and Maribel Gordon are the only candidates who have talked about closing and transforming the site,” Banfield said.
“They explained what they wanted to do after that. But aside from that, the candidates' environmental arguments are pretty weak.”
Activists like Banfield also warn that the fight over mines is far from over. First Quantum has already begun proceedings to seek $20 billion in compensation for the shutdown through international arbitration, a huge sum that could hurt government coffers.
The company also announced plans to meet with Panamanian officials after the election in hopes of restarting the mine.
Environment issues
Hundreds of protesters flooded the streets last year to show support for the closure of the Cobre Panama mine and other environmental issues.
Climate change remains a prominent issue in Sunday's election, especially for young voters who make up nearly half of Panama's electorate.
Along the coast, rising sea levels are endangering indigenous groups like the Guna people, whose members see their island homes submerged in annual floods.
Meanwhile, El Niño weather patterns increased heatwaves and led to months of extreme drought that began in 2023.
Water scarcity is a pressing problem in this country. According to the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (CEPAL), approximately 5 percent of Panama's population lacks access to basic water and sanitation services.
The drought is also hurting commerce. The Panama Canal is an important international shipping route, allowing boats to cross the country and travel between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.
However, canals require stable water levels to allow ships to pass through locks and water chambers. The drought has wreaked havoc on these water levels, forcing the canal to reduce traffic.
“A canal drought is like when you have a restaurant and there’s a line outside and you can’t get in because there aren’t enough tables,” economist Argote told Al Jazeera.
Canal managers estimate the bottleneck could result in up to $700 million in lost revenue.
“Because of the water issue, we haven't received the funding that we were supposed to receive,” Argott said.
What changes are on the horizon?
Experts including Nebache who spoke to Al Jazeera warned that whoever wins Sunday's election will face an uphill battle in addressing Panama's myriad problems.
One of the challenges is mobilizing members of the Diet. A record number of 127 independent candidates are running for parliament in Sunday's election, but they have no party loyalty to unify them once they take office.
“They are very diverse ideologically, from the left to the far right,” Nevash said.
Some presidential candidates are seeking to completely revise the constitution if they take power in order to root out corruption in the country.
Mr. Lew, for example, has promised to convene a constituent assembly within 30 days of taking office to revise the current charter, which was enacted in 1972.
Another candidate, Lombana, similarly said a new constitution was needed to “change the rules that have protected corrupt people.”
However, former finance minister Cortés told Al Jazeera that he did not believe the new constitution would solve Panama's problems.
“A new legal framework is not a silver bullet to eliminate excessive inequality or lack of opportunities for young people,” he said.
However, he acknowledged that the constitutional amendment has broad support from the public.
“The majority of the people believe that the country's biggest problems can be solved by constitutional amendment,” he explained. “Politicians propose it because the people want it.”
