Mr. Lichtman's methodology has proven its worth time and time again.
New Delhi:
Alan Lichtman, also known as the “Nostradamus of US presidential elections,'' has gained a reputation for his uncanny ability to predict election results. Lichtman's methods, which have accurately predicted nine of the past 10 U.S. presidential elections, have won both praise and attention.
To accurately predict who will enter the Oval Office, Lichtman designed what he calls the “13 Keys to the White House.” This is a revolutionary method that has revolutionized election prediction.
Consisting of a series of true/false questions, the key assesses various factors such as economic performance, social stability, and incumbent charisma. Through careful analysis across historical data dating back to the time of Abraham Lincoln, Lichtman has created a predictive model that goes beyond the traditional methods used by traditional psychologists.
“I haven't made a final prediction yet, but I do have a 13 keys model for the White House that has been correct in 10 consecutive elections since 1984. And it works because out of the 13 keys… If they get six or more, they are predicted to be the loser against the White House party (incumbent), and if they get less than six, they are predicted to be the winner,'' Lichtman told NDTV. “At this point, a lot of things would have to go wrong for Joe Biden to lose this election. He's trailing by just two points at this point.”
Biden is expected to face a second challenge from Donald Trump, who is increasingly likely to become the face of the Republican Party in the 2024 US presidential election scheduled for November. Biden enjoys the advantage of incumbency, and given the relatively uncontested primary, Lichtman believes Biden's challengers have a formidable chance of winning.
What are the 13 keys?
Despite initial skepticism from the forecasting community, Lichtman's methodology has proven its worth time and time again. From Ronald Reagan's re-election victory in the midst of an economic recession to Bill Clinton's victory over George H.W. Bush, Mr. Lichtman has accurately predicted key U.S. polls.
The 13 keys of the White House designed by Mr. Lichtman are as follows.
Party mission: After the midterm elections, incumbent parties captured more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than in the previous midterm elections.
Nomination contest: There are no major obstacles for the incumbent party to win the nomination.
Tenure: The incumbent president represents the incumbent political party.
Third Party Elements: There are no notable third parties or independent campaigns.
Short-term financial stability: The economy will not face a recession during the election period.
Long-term economic growth: The real economic growth rate per capita is equal to or higher than the average growth rate of the previous two periods.
Policy changes: The current administration enacts major changes to national policy.
Social stability: There is no lingering social anxiety throughout the period.
No scandal: There are still no major scandals in the current administration.
Foreign/Military Accident: There have been no major diplomatic or military failures under the current administration.
Foreign/Military Victory: The current government has achieved great success in foreign and military issues.
Existing attraction: Incumbent party candidates are charismatic or enjoy the status of national heroes.
Challenger appeal: The other candidate has no charisma or national hero status.
Biden vs. Trump
As a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll showed, U.S. voters see President Trump as better for the economy than President Biden. The three-day poll found 41% of participants favored Trump's economic approach over Biden, while 34% backed Biden. The remaining respondents expressed uncertainty or felt that neither candidate had a superior position.
But Lichtman said early polling should be taken with a grain of salt.
“Early polls have zero predictive value. They are instantaneous snapshots. For example, we say, 'If the election was held today, here's where the candidates would stand.' “Early polls often mislead you,” Lichtman told NDTV.
“In 2016, when I predicted a Donald Trump victory against polls, or in 1988, when George H.W. That's why I urge everyone to take the polls and look at the big picture as determined by the metrics that matter to experts, as they did when they beat Mike Dukakis by 17 points and went on to win. I want to tell you to get it,” he added.
Lichtman's predictive abilities faced their most significant test in the tumultuous 2000 election between Al Gore and George W. Bush. He had predicted a win for Gore, but the controversial result cast a shadow over his predictions.
