Alan Lichtman (left) has accurately predicted the outcome of nine of the past 10 US presidential elections and plans to predict the upcoming race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. AP/Australia
Alan Lichtman, known as the “Nostradamus of American presidential elections,'' boasts an impressive track record of accurately predicting the results of nine of the past ten US presidential elections. With his methodical approach and unique insight, Lichtman is preparing for his latest challenge: predicting the showdown between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in the upcoming US presidential election.
Alan Lichtman, a veteran history professor at American University (AU) in Washington, began his journey into the realm of election forecasting more than 40 years ago. In 1981, Lichtman, then a visiting scholar at the California Institute of Technology, reported that he had formed an unlikely alliance with Vladimir Kaylis-Borok, a prominent authority on earthquake prediction with a strong interest in American politics. guardian.
Their collaboration led to the development of the famous “13 Keys to the White House,” a groundbreaking method for analyzing presidential elections through the lens of stability and turmoil. This method, which combines historical patterns of stability with current political dynamics, has been the cornerstone of election forecasting ever since.
“I would like to say that I developed the system by blinding myself in the archives and by deep contemplation, but if I may say so, in the words of the late, great Richard Nixon, that That would be wrong,” Lichtman said. guardian. “Like many discoveries, it was kind of serendipitous.”
What are the 13 keys?
Lichtman and Kaylis Bolock's method relies on 13 true/false questions, each of which serves as a litmus test for the prospects of the incumbent party. These keys range from economic conditions to social unrest, from major policy changes to candidate charisma. If six or more keys go against the incumbent party, it signals a change of government.
The 13 keys, summarized on the AU website, are:
1. party mission: After the midterm elections, incumbent parties hold more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the last midterm election.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest over the nomination of the incumbent party.
3. tenure: The incumbent party candidate is the incumbent president.
Four. third party: There are no significant third parties or independent campaigns.
Five. short term economy:The economy is not depressed during the election period.
6. long term economy:The real economic growth rate per capita during the period was equal to or higher than the average growth rate of the past two periods.
7. Policy change: The current administration has brought about major changes in national policy.
8. social anxiety: Social unrest will not continue during the term of office.
9. scandal:The current administration is not tainted by any major scandals.
Ten. foreign/military failure:The current administration has not made any major failures either diplomatically or militarily.
11. foreign/military success: The current government achieves great success in the diplomatic or military field.
12. Charisma of the incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidates are not charismatic or national heroes.
The White House is paying attention
Their groundbreaking research attracted media attention. washington post The article was headlined “Odd Couple Finds White House Key.'' Subsequently, Lichtman's predictions gained attention, culminating in his accurate prediction of Ronald Reagan's reelection in 1984, despite widespread economic hardship and low approval ratings.
His prominence in prophecy earned him a seat at the White House table, where he interacted with prominent officials, including then-U.S. Vice President George H.W. Bush. Lichtman's insights proved invaluable and provided a glimpse into the future of American politics.
In 1991, Lichtman published a book called “13 Keys to the President.''
“I kept telling them that some of my keys weren't just cut and dried, but it's judgment, not subjectivity. We're dealing with human systems, and historians always make judgments.” It's not a random decision. I define each key very carefully in the book, and I have records.”
Please also read: More than 60% of Americans feel Biden's term has been a failure, survey finds
He added, “It took 15 to 20 years and the professional forecasting community completely turned around. They realized their big mathematical models weren't working and decided the best models were more concise metrics. And suddenly the key became the hottest thing in prediction.”
Despite his success, Lichtman faced skepticism from some within the forecasting community. Although critics challenged the subjectivity of his method, Lichtman remained steadfast, insisting that his approach was rooted in rigorous analysis and historical precedent.
Momentary Shock: The 2000 US Election
Lichtman's otherwise impeccable career faced intense scrutiny after the controversial 2000 election, in which he predicted Al Gore's victory. Despite Gore winning the popular vote, Lichtman alleges that the results were marred by fraud, citing disparities in ballot processing that disproportionately affected minority voters.
talk to guardianHe said, “It was a stolen election. Based on the actual vote count, Al Gore would have won, except for the discarded votes cast by black voters, who were 95% for Gore.'' I proved this in my report to the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights: 1 in 9 or 10 votes cast by black voters was thrown out, compared to 1 in 50 cast by white voters. I cast my vote.”
“Most of them weren't so-called hanging Chads. Black people were told to punch Gore and then write Gore just in case, and all those ballots were thrown away, so they were overvotes. Political scientists have since studied the election and proved me right: based on voter intent, Al Gore should have won by tens of thousands of votes.
He went on to say, “I would argue that I was right about 2000, or at least that no correct prediction existed.'' You can argue either way. But even if it's a 9 out of 10, it's not a bad thing.
Trump's unlikely 2016 victory
In 2016, Lichtman made headlines again for predicting Donald Trump's victory, defying conventional wisdom and poll predictions. His analysis emphasized the importance of key factors such as party stability, candidate charisma, and current social and economic conditions.
Lichtman walked readers through the process, saying: I lost the key to my current job because it was vacant. With the Democratic Party's poor performance in 2014, we lost that key. There were no major achievements domestically after the Affordable Care Act in the first half, and there were no flashy successes in foreign policy after the killing of bin Laden in the first half, so the key was sufficient. It wasn't an easy decision. ”
After the election, Lichtman received a copy of the following document: washington post The interview in which he made that prediction was reported. guardian. It had this written in sharpie pen: “Congratulations, Professor. Good call. It's Donald J. Trump.” But in the same call, Lichtman also predicted, also accurately, that Trump would one day be impeached.
He was also right about 2020, when President Trump struggled to respond to the coronavirus pandemic. “The pandemic hit him. He blessed me with what I predicted, but he didn't understand the key. The key message is that it's not about campaigning, it's about governance. And as we know, he thought he could talk his way out of the pandemic instead of substantively dealing with it, and that sunk him.”
2024 Election – Biden or Trump?
Even as the political landscape changes, Lichtman remains undaunted, offering insight into the upcoming election cycle. With a keen eye for historical precedent and current trends, he assesses Joe Biden's re-election prospects and highlights key indicators that could shape the outcome.
according to guardian, He is expected to announce his predictions for the 2024 US presidential election in early August. He emphasized that Mr. Biden currently has the advantage of incumbency, decisively defeated his nominal opponent in the Democratic primary, and holds the key to the election campaign.
“That's the top two keys. That means six more keys would have to fall to predict his loss. A lot of things would have to go wrong for Biden to lose. .”
Lichtman is ignoring the importance of his running mate selection and is sticking to his predictions despite the possibility of a last-minute surprise in October. However, he acknowledges that no predictive model is completely immune to unexpected events.
Lichtman spoke about ongoing developments, including the start of Trump's criminal trial in New York related to hush money payments. guardian, “The key is based on history. These are very robust as they cover major economic, social, demographic and political changes, going back retrospectively to 1860 and prospectively to 1984.
“But there's always the potential for enough catastrophe to occur outside of the keys that could affect an election. And here, for the first time, not only a former president but a major party candidate is on trial. , if he's convicted, and there's a good chance he'll be convicted, we know how that would mess things up.”
Please also read: Who will be Donald Trump's running mate?
Looking back on scenarios where his predictions were wrong, Lichtman said: He's human. It's not that my system is wrong. There is nothing perfect in the human world. ”
While Lichtman's method provides a powerful framework for election prediction, it acknowledges that politics is inherently unpredictable. As unforeseen events unfold, such as legal issues or social upheavals, circumstances can change and introduce new variables into the “equation.”
Based on opinions from agents
Anmol is a senior associate editor at Firstpost. He likes to cover articles that make him interesting, generally revolving around international politics, India's foreign policy, human interest, the environment, and even India's politically charged election cycles. He has too many different interests and is always itching to travel. Having visited his 14 states in the Indian subcontinent, he is always looking for opportunities to add more to his list. As a pure sports enthusiast, he enjoys watching soccer, tennis, and Formula 1. see next
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