A presidential election poll conducted by the Bulfinch Group from April 16th to 23rd shows that Republican candidate Donald J. Trump is ahead of current presidential candidates Joe Biden (Democratic Party) and Robert Trump. Won Washington State in a five-way contest with Mr. F. Kennedy Jr. (me). , Jill Stein (G), Cornel West (I).
According to a poll sponsored by the Independent Center, Mr. Trump leads with 40%, Mr. Biden with 35%, Mr. Kennedy with 13%, Mr. Stein with 4% and Mr. West with 1%. 8% did not know who was who. They will vote for president.
What may provide additional insight is that 45% of respondents said they voted for President Joe Biden in the 2020 general election.
Polls say the political dark horse in the race is Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a Democrat-turned-independent in 2023. Kennedy said he had been a “lifelong Democrat” but that he gradually began to drift away from the party. He has been “increasingly distanced” from that ideology since the 2010s.
Looking at the actual results of the 2020 general election in Washington state, at the time President Trump received 38.77% of the vote, Mr. Biden received 57.97%, and all other candidates received 3.26%.
The latest Bulfinch Group poll, conducted in April, showed President Trump's approval rating at 40%, consistent with three previous polls sponsored by both Democrats and Republicans. Two consecutive Democratic Party-funded polls conducted by the Northwest Progressive Institute on November 14, 2023 and February 13, 2024 show President Trump at 38%. And in a Republican-funded poll conducted on March 18, 2024, President Trump's approval rating is 37%, and these are all based on President Trump's general election in Washington state in 2020. Consistent with the results.
As of May 6, according to a poll compiled by RealClear Politics, Trump's approval rating in the five-way race is +2.7 points nationwide, ahead of Biden's 41.5% and 38.8%. On the same day in 2020, in 2016, Biden had a 5.3 point lead and Clinton had a 6.5 point lead over Trump.
Comparing five-way and two-way elections, Trump still leads Biden by 1.1 points nationally. But a two-way poll in Washington state shows Biden leading Trump by a wide margin.
Two consecutive Democratic Party-funded polls conducted by the Northwest Progressive Institute on November 14, 2023 and February 13, 2024, showed Biden at 52% and 54%, respectively. Meanwhile, a Republican-funded poll conducted on March 18, 2024 shows Biden's approval rating in Washington state at 48%.
In a Bulfinch Group poll, 62% of respondents said they were concerned about Mr. Biden's age, compared to 23% for Mr. Trump. A majority of respondents (54%) feel that Biden's mental health is a concern, compared to 38% for Trump. Respondents say Biden has a favorable opinion of Trump on attitudes (54%) and non-legal issues (53%).
Those surveyed criticize Biden's economic policies (52% vs. Trump's 38%) and border policies (50% vs. Trump's 38%). Most respondents are concerned about President Trump's policies on reproductive rights (50% compared to 33% for President Biden). However, when it comes to concerns about environmental policy, both Trump and Biden are below 50%, giving Biden a 9-point lead.
Trump was the most popular, with 48% of respondents saying they would never vote for him, followed by Biden 40%, Kennedy 23%, Stein 12%, West 14%, and those who were undecided. was 4%.
A potential opportunity for Kennedy, Stein and West is voter engagement with the candidates. When asked whether they would support their candidate or oppose his opponent, 42% of respondents who supported Biden said they opposed Trump. Meanwhile, only 22% of respondents who support President Trump said they would vote against Biden.
In a five-person race, this presents an opportunity for Independent Party and Green Party candidates to lure voters away from the Biden camp who believe Biden is too old and mentally unfit to be 47.th President of the United States. Mr. Kennedy, Mr. Stein and Mr. West currently appeal to 14.3% of voters nationwide, with Mr. Kennedy the frontrunner at 10.8%, according to a tally by RealClear Politics.
The Bulfinch Group poll, sponsored by the Independent Center, was an online survey of 250 registered voters in Washington state. The poll has a margin of error of ±6.2%. The company is owned by political strategist Brett Lloyd and has a biased rating of “central” from Allside.
Click here to view the full Bullfinch Group poll results.