Kevin Madden, a strategist who worked on Mitt Romney's 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns, may be among those surprised that this year's presidential debate is even happening. He said the risks appear to outweigh the rewards for both President Biden and former President Donald J. Trump.
But the candidates didn't seem to agree. On Wednesday, Biden announced he would participate in two debates under nontraditional conditions. Trump quickly signed it. CNN and ABC News have confirmed that he will host on June 27th and September 10th.
The extent to which debates influence elections has long been debated. Some particularly great statements and terrible gaffes have made their way into the history books, such as Ronald Reagan's “I'll be back” in 1980 and Gerald Ford's “Soviet control of Eastern Europe will not exist” in 1976. Even if you left an impression, you'll never know it. Was it decisive?
But this year, with races as close as this one, with perhaps hundreds of thousands of voters in seven states, and almost certainly as narrow a playing field as this year's, just about anything could be decisive. .
“More than any advertising, on-the-ground organizing, or big rallies in battleground states, 90 minutes on stage at the June debate could be the make-or-break event for these campaigns,” Madden said. said. “You can’t hold back your expectations for these.”
Several veteran political strategists from both Democrats and Republicans offered their thoughts Thursday about what Biden and Trump's goals should be.
Biden: Deliver a choice, not a referendum.
In the classical framework of elections, a choice between two candidates or a referendum on one candidate is possible.
An unpopular president like Biden is unlikely to perform well in a national referendum election. But he could do better in an election where voters treat him as a choice between him and an alternative they might consider worse.
The debate will be “one of the most important opportunities for Joe Biden to establish contrast and shake up the sense that this is a referendum election against the incumbent,” said Democratic strategist and Hillary Clinton presidential candidate. said Tim Hogan, who cooperated. Amy Klobuchar in 2016 and 2020. “Having Trump spewing nonsense on stage is the best way to remind voters that we don't want this dangerous man back in the White House. It's the best way to get rid of the nostalgic amnesia of the Trump era.”
Hogan said the best issues for Biden to contrast are democracy, abortion rights and calls for revenge against Trump's political opponents.
Mr. Trump: Let voters focus on the economy.
Perceptions of the economy have been a major weakness for Mr. Biden, with polls showing voters feel they were better off economically under Mr. Trump. Inflation has fallen from its 2022 peak and indicators such as job growth and the stock market are strong, but many voters remain dissatisfied with Biden's management of the economy.
“Affordability is a key differentiator in Trump's campaign,” said Frank Luntz, a Republican strategist and pollster who has responded to debates and conducted focus groups with voters for nearly 30 years. says. “Trump's record is pretty strong, Biden's is pretty weak.”
Mr. Luntz said Mr. Trump would do well to highlight numbers, such as the rate of inflation during his administration compared to the Biden administration, and specific numbers such as housing, food and gas prices. He said he recommended similar measures be taken regarding the number of border crossings.
Mr. Madden agreed that the issues Mr. Trump should focus on most are the economy and immigration. “There are floating voters out there,” he says. “Go and meet them there.”
Biden: Don't take the bait.
While Mr. Trump will likely launch many attacks, two Democratic strategists said Mr. Biden's task will be to continue to respond selectively.
“We used to tell President Obama, 'Don't chase the rabbit hole,'” said Jim Messina, who ran Obama's 2012 re-election campaign. “That means staying on message, not sidelining our response to any attacks, and communicating where we're going to take the American people over the next four years. This is especially true in the debates against President Trump. President Trump's aura of showmanship and confusion can easily derail any conversation.”
Joel Benenson, a pollster who has worked with Obama and Hillary Clinton, said Biden should remain “calm” and “calm” in his responses. “I'll take it to higher ground. Don't ever get in the mud with him,” he said.
Trump: Don't act like a bully.
Strategists have widely said that Trump's propensity for ranting and exasperating poses the biggest risk to the debate, with key implications for Biden's victory in 2020 and Democratic victories in the 2018 and 2022 midterm elections. He said it could alienate voters like suburban women who played the role.
In 2020, Benenson said, “Biden has done a very good job of exposing the disgusting bully nature of President Trump,” adding, “When someone is just creating a lot of self-loathing, it's hard to overdo it.” There is no need to act,” he added. He was hurt, and I don't think President Trump has the discipline and fortitude to never do something like this again. ”
Madden warned Trump to control his anger.
“The risk is that Mr. Trump tends to get very heated,” he said. “And he tends to mostly criticize his opponents in a way that could alienate a lot of floating voters.”
Biden and Trump: Adjust the rules to your advantage.
A big part of the campaign's job is to set the rules before the debate even begins.
Luntz said giving more time for each response could benefit Biden, who “takes longer to prepare” but is “more thorough.” Relaxing the structure to allow for more interruptions could benefit Mr. Trump. Luntz added: “Biden was wise to insist on no audience because Trump's audience is far more likely to scream than Biden's.”
Luntz pointed to the decision to sit or stand during the 2004 vice presidential debate between Dick Cheney and John Edwards as an example of how powerful debate formats can be.
In terms of voter perception, he said, “Cheney's positions are boring, bland, and not particularly persuasive. Mr. Cheney sitting there is a brilliant, focused problem solver.” “John Edwards sitting is just a politician, and perhaps an even worse politician. John Edwards standing was the best trial lawyer.”
Mr. Cheney secured a seated debate. “Mr. Edwards should never have said yes,” Lantz said. “It was Cheney's best time and Edwards' worst.”
