The populations of five of the seven states widely expected to be political battlegrounds in the 2024 presidential election are very similar to the U.S. population as a whole on a variety of demographic and socioeconomic measures.
For decades, presidential election season began with the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary. But in recent years, that approach has been criticized for giving lead-off status in national elections to two of the smallest and least racially and ethnically diverse states.
Those two states restarted their election processes in 2024, but Democrats did not formally participate in the New Hampshire primary, which President Joe Biden won as a write-in candidate.
Instead, an analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data shows that the first official Democratic primary was South Carolina, a state closer to the United States than New Hampshire.
Our research found that there are states that are more similar to the United States as a whole. In fact, New Hampshire is one of the states that looks the least like the entire United States. Our research reveals which states have a greater political voice during elections, which states don't, and which states deserve more attention.
Survey of population data
Using data from the 2022 American Community Survey, a national survey conducted by the Census Bureau, we compared each state to the nation as a whole based on five characteristics:
- Race and ethnicity breakdown: Describe your race and ethnicity as Latinx, non-Hispanic American Indian and Alaska Native, Asian, Black, Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander, White, any other race, or two or more races. Percentage of people who reported.
- Age and gender distribution: Percentage of people identified as male or female in different age groups from 0 to 85+. Note that the Census Bureau only offers two options for gender identity.
- Academic background: Percentage of people with elementary or high school education, some college, or various degrees.
- household income: Percentage of households reporting incomes ranging from less than $10,000 to more than $200,000.
- Occupational distribution: Percentage of employed workers in a variety of broad occupations such as agriculture, fishing, and forestry. Construction and extraction. or sales and related occupations.
For each characteristic, we used a statistical method called the dissimilarity index to determine how similar or different each state is to the country's demographic and socio-economic profile. A dissimilarity index score of 0 indicates that the state is exactly like the country as a whole. A score of 100 indicates that there are no further differences.
We ranked each state's score for each characteristic, averaged those rankings, and listed the states in an overall order from most similar to least similar.
find similarities
In 2022, Illinois was found to be the closest state to the entire country. Illinois resembled the nation more than any other state in its racial and ethnic breakdown, age and gender distribution, and household income distribution. It was the second closest country in terms of educational distribution and the fourth closest in terms of occupational distribution.
This was of personal interest to us. Because in the summer of 2009, one of us, Rogelio Saenz, was driving through Illinois and saw a road sign that reminded me of the old rhetorical question, “Are we going to play in Peoria?” Back in the 1880s, theater producers and others considered the city of Peoria, Illinois, to be a microcosm of the country. As Peoria Magazine wrote in 2009, in the political realm, the phrase was adopted to conjure up “an ideal place to channel the 'pulse of the people' into political campaigns and legislative proposals.”
Saenz wondered at the time whether the saying had any real-life relevance. And at least if you look at the state of Peoria, you'll see that to be true. Illinois' population is very similar to the population of the United States as a whole.
5 Battleground States Most Similar to the United States
In general, swing states or battleground states are states where the percentage of Democratic and Republican voters is similar and large enough to have significant influence in the Electoral College. In 2024, he will have seven of them.
Of particular note is that five of the ten states most similar to the United States are battleground states in 2024. Illinois isn't a battleground state, but his next three are North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona. And fellow battleground states Michigan and Pennsylvania are seventh and eighth, respectively. The other top two are Oregon and Kansas. The two battleground states not in the top 10 are Nevada and Wisconsin.
Combined, the seven battleground states give him just over a third of the electoral votes needed to win the president. Because these states play a vital role in presidential elections, they are an important focus not only for candidate appearances but also for campaign advertising and promotional efforts.
Our analysis reveals the role that demographic and socioeconomic characteristics play in determining which states are swing states. For example, her five battleground states that most resemble the United States tend to have greater racial and ethnic diversity than other states. These also include states that are very similar to the United States in terms of occupation, education, age-sex, and income data.
states not similar to the United States
Our analysis also reveals how different the US state of New Hampshire is. It is number 45 on the list.
South Carolina and Iowa, two other states that played early roles in the presidential election process, finished 20th and 28th, respectively. But his two other battleground states are also nearby, with Wisconsin and Nevada ranked 23rd and 29th, respectively.
Populous states like California, Texas, Florida, and New York also do so differently than the nation as a whole. For example, California is similar to the United States in terms of occupational distribution, but very different in terms of race and ethnicity. Although Texas is very similar to the United States in socio-economic aspects, it is very different demographically. Although Florida is similar to the United States in terms of race and ethnicity, education, and income, the state differs considerably in age and gender composition and occupations. New York is similar to New York in terms of race and ethnicity, but very different in terms of occupations.
new perspective
The findings help people think about different types of diversity in the U.S. population of 336 million people.
And perhaps this information could be used to influence future choices about which states will host early presidential primaries and caucuses.
Illinois, for example, is a microcosm of the country as a whole and could make a compelling case as an undercard for future presidential primaries. Through 51 presidential elections, Illinois voters voted Democratic 25 times and Republican 24 times, split in two more elections, and chose the winning candidate in 42 of those elections.
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
