The latest national poll from Marquette University School of Law finds the presidential election to be a close one.
Among registered voters, President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump each have a tied approval rating at 50%. Among prospective voters, President Trump had a 51-49 lead.
In the five-way race, Trump received 40% of the vote among registered voters, Biden 37%, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 17%, and Jill Stein and Cornel West 3% each.
Among likely voters, Trump received 44%, Biden 41%, Kennedy 11%, and Stein and West 2% each.
The poll, conducted May 6-15 amid Trump's hush money trial in New York, found that 54% believe Trump has done something illegal, 27% think he has done something wrong but not illegally, and 19% say he has done nothing wrong.
The Marquette Law poll asked half of the sample how it would affect their vote if Trump were found guilty, and the other half if a jury found the former president not guilty. We sought to test the possible impact of the court outcome by asking how people would vote.
Asked how they would vote if Trump is convicted, Biden was favored 43-39, with 18% saying they would support someone else or not vote at all.
In the acquittal scenario, 44% supported Trump, 38% voted for Biden, and 18% voted for someone else or did not vote.
The poll of 902 registered voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points. The sample of likely voters was 684, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5.2 percentage points.
FiveThirtyEight rates Marquette 3 out of 3 stars as the third best polling organization in the nation.
