When most people think of the 2024 elections, they think of the U.S. presidential election in November. But before that, there's another election that will have far-reaching consequences for all Americans. On Sunday, June 2, 2024, Mexico will vote to elect a new president. Polls show former Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum leading by double digits over her nearest rival, Xochitl Gálvez.
Sheinbaum is known as a left-wing nationalist committed to continuing the policy platform of current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO). Galvez rejects these nationalist positions and policies and has pledged to build a more business-friendly and cooperative relationship with the United States.
Here are seven quantitative reasons why Congress should pay attention to Mexico's elections.
249,735In December 2023, approximately 250,000 migrants were apprehended or expelled at the southwestern US border. According to the Pew Research Center, this was “the highest monthly total on record and far exceeded the previous peak of approximately 224,000 encounters in May 2022.” Outgoing President Lopez Obrador initially worked closely with the US government toward this common goal of reducing illegal migration, but has scaled back cooperation in recent years. The next Mexican president will need to decide whether to renew and reinvigorate bilateral cooperation with the United States, especially in the area of managing the flow of migrants through Mexico. in the middle to the southern US border.
280,000 The number of foreigners who will be deported from Mexico in March 2024. Under pressure from the US government, President Lopez Obrador has once again begun to cooperate in interdicting migrants on Mexican territory after significantly reducing the interdiction of migrants in 2023. Will the next president allocate the necessary funds to interdict migrants on Mexican territory?
107,543 According to the CDC, the number of drug overdoses occurring in the United States in 2023 will be the highest ever. Mexico is a vital partner in the fight against drug trafficking, but in recent years, the Mexican government has taken a lax stance when it comes to tackling drug trafficking organizations (DTOs). President Lopez Obrador has adopted a “hugs, not bullets” strategy to deal with organized crime and has repeatedly denied Mexico's involvement in the production of fentanyl, the most deadly drug currently flowing across the border. If the next president continues this policy of inaction, the United States' synthetic drug problem will only worsen, with devastating consequences for public health.
$63.3 billion The amount of dollars remitted to Mexico in 2023, most of which came from the United States. This figure is up from $36 billion before the pandemic. The flow of dollars into the Mexican economy has mainly helped to maintain domestic demand and compensated for the lack of growth. If the next president can stimulate the Mexican economy, the importance of these remittances will decrease significantly.
$44.2 billion is the dollar value of refined petroleum products exported from the United States to Mexico in 2022. Mexico has become the largest export market for gasoline and other refined products for the United States, and this amount has increased fourfold over the past decade. President Obrador has overseen a rapid deterioration of Mexico's oil sector, but is committed to the highly ambitious and costly goal of producing more refined products domestically. If successful, this “energy sovereignty” policy will have a direct impact on U.S. exports. Of the two main candidates, Sheinbaum has promised to continue President Obrador's approach; Galvez supports a free market model of modernizing and liberalizing the sector.
5.7 billion is the amount of natural gas in cubic feet exported from the United States to Mexico each day. If the next president pursues the right economic policies, this figure will likely increase further in the coming years due to Mexico's industrialization and growing demand for electricity generation. However, many economic nationalists within the Mexican government have warned that an overdependence on gas supplied from the United States could threaten Mexico's sovereignty, which could affect the continued strength and viability of the energy trade.
1: Mexico is the United States' largest trading partner. In 2023, Mexico will trade more with the United States than any other country for the first time, surpassing China and Canada, which had held the top spot for many years. Total trade between the two countries will reach $799 billion in 2023. That's $2.2 billion per day, more than $91 million per hour, and more than $1.5 million per minute. The growing economic relationship between the United States and Mexico has become essential to maintaining America's competitiveness. This, perhaps more than any other, is the most compelling reason to pay attention to Mexico's June elections.
The choice facing Mexicans in June is continuity or change. Continuity means U.S.-Mexico cooperation on security, immigration and drug trafficking issues will be difficult and limited. This election is critical to the well-being of the people and economies on both sides of the border. Good governance in Mexico, combined with robust U.S. cooperation with Mexico's new government, will be essential to promoting the well-being of both countries.
Duncan Wood Vice President for Strategic Initiatives and Senior Advisor to the Institute of Mexican Studies at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.
Image: Octavio Hoyas/Shutterstock.com.
