On June 2nd, people across Mexico will head to the polls to choose their new leaders as part of the largest elections in the country's history.
The election will see voters decide more than 20,700 posts at the federal and local levels, including 500 seats in the House of Representatives and 128 seats in the Senate.
But much of the attention will be on the presidential election as Andrés Manuel López Obrador, popularly known as AMLO, reaches the end of his term as one of the most popular leaders in modern Mexican history.
Claudia Sheinbaum, a scientist and former mayor of Mexico City, wants to succeed AMLO as the candidate of the Morena political party, but she faces competition from conservative rival Xochitl Gálvez, a former senator and businessman of Otomi indigenous descent.
If either Sheinbaum or Galvez wins the election, it would be a historic moment for Mexico, as no woman has ever been elected president before.
As citizens in 32 states across Mexico prepare to head to the polls, Al Jazeera explores the stakes underlying the election: what issues are central to the campaign, and how will the electoral process work?
This explanation will answer these questions and more.
How big will the 2024 election be?
About 100 million people are expected to vote in Mexico in June, a record for a country that has seen declining voter turnout in past elections.
About 11 million more people are expected to vote in this year's election than in the last presidential election in 2018.
How will the vote unfold?
According to Mexico's election watchdog, the National Electoral Institute (INE), Mexicans will vote at 170,000 polling stations (PDF) across the country, and they will need a voter ID card to take part.
Mexico has one of the world's largest diaspora populations, with more than 11 million people living abroad, but voters abroad can still vote online, by mail or in person at a Mexican consulate.
From May 6 to May 20, people with disabilities and mobility issues were allowed to vote early.
On June 2, polling stations will open as early as 8 a.m. and close at 6 p.m. Voters who are in line by 6 p.m. will be able to cast their ballot.
After polling stations close, the electoral commission will begin counting the votes, with INE providing real-time statistics. A second count to determine the final results will take place between 5 and 8 June.
What are the major political parties?
In this election, two major coalitions have emerged in the race for the presidential election.
One is a conservative coalition of three parties collectively named “Strength and Heart for Mexico”, and the other is a left-wing coalition led by the Morena party called “Continue to Make History”.
The first group includes the National Action Party (PAN), the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and the Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD).
The PRI was Mexico's dominant political force for much of the 20th century, holding power for 71 consecutive years, often through fraud and repression. The “Strength and Heart for Mexico” coalition brings together the PRI and the PAN, a rival conservative party that ended its run in 2000.
The second coalition would include the current ruling party, MORENA, along with the Mexican Green and Environmental Party (Verde) and the Workers' Party (PT).
Another party, the Civic Movement, is running for seats on its own, separate from the two main coalition parties.
Are these traditional coalitions?
Carlos Bravo Regidor, a Mexico City-based author and political analyst, said such an alliance is new in Mexican politics and a testament to the influence AMLO has had on the political landscape.
“This is a whole new political system under Lopez Obrador,” he said.
Regidor explained that Lopez Obrador has become so popular that former rivals had to work together to compete in this year's presidential election.
“The PRI, PAN and PRD working together is historically unusual. For most of Mexico's democratic history, these three parties have been in conflict with each other,” he explained.
“That these three historically rival parties, representing the right, left and center of Mexico's political spectrum, are fighting together to defeat Lopez Obrador's candidacy is a testament to the impact he has had.”
Who will represent the Union in the presidential election?
Sheinbaum represents the left-leaning coalition “Let's Keep Making History.” Her conservative rival, Galvez, ran for president on a platform of “Strength and Heart for Mexico.”
Meanwhile, former congressman Jorge Álvarez Maínez is running on behalf of the Citizens' Movement.
What is the central issue of your campaign?
Polls show voters rank issues such as security, social programs and corruption as their top priorities.
The election is also seen as a referendum on President Lopez Obrador's term in office.
His protégé, Sheinbaum, has promised to push through AMLO's policies, such as expanding social programs and overseeing big infrastructure projects like the Maya Train, a controversial rail line through the Yucatan Peninsula.
Galvez emerged as the protest candidate, promising to take a tough stance against violence and corruption, and criticizing Lopez Obrador for saying he would deal with crime with “hugs, not bullets.”
Despite using that slogan during his 2018 presidential campaign, Lopez Obrador has expanded the military's role in law enforcement in the country, while Galvez has said he will back away from relying on the military to maintain security.
How did crime affect the 2024 election?
The ongoing violence facing the country has been evident during the election period, with an estimated 34 candidates killed between September and May.
Last month, two mayoral candidates were found dead in the northern state of Tamaulipas, and on May 17, gunmen killed six people, including another mayoral candidate, at a political rally in the southern state of Chiapas.
Authorities have blamed drug cartels and organized crime for the killings, which have had a disproportionate impact on local ethnicities.
Who is leading the presidential election?
Most polls show Scheinbaum with a large lead of 20 points or more over Galvez. Meinez is seen as an underdog.
AMLO's popularity is expected to help boost Morena's support in elections, where his coalition is seeking to expand its majority in Congress.
Why is Sheinbaum so far ahead?
Political analyst Regidor said Galvez played her cards well and ran a fairly dynamic campaign, but he believes her affiliation with the PAN and PRI parties has hindered her prospects.
“Mexican voters associate every possible negative characteristic most strongly with the PRI and, to a lesser extent, with the PAN,” Regidor explained.
“Therefore, Mr. Xochitl could not run as a candidate of change, because the idea of change is incompatible with running under the banner of the PAN and the PRI.”
In 2006, under PAN President Felipe Calderón, the government adopted a more militarized approach to law enforcement and launched a controversial “war on drugs.”
But this strategy has done little to curb drug trafficking and has led to an explosion of violence and increasing reports of military abuses, including evidence of full collaboration between security forces and criminal gangs.
The PRI, meanwhile, has long been plagued by accusations of corruption and oppression: from 1929 to 2000, it was the dominant force in Mexican politics.
The long-ruling party briefly restored the presidency to Enrique Peña Nieto in 2012, but corruption scandals and dissatisfaction with Peña Nieto's neoliberal economic policies led to AMLO taking office in 2018.
“The discrediting of these traditional parties helps explain Lopez Obrador's landslide victory in 2018. In the polls they ask voters: Where is the most corrupt? The PRI. Where is the most violent? The PRI. Where is the worst in caring for the poor? The PRI,” Regior said.
He added that the PRI's long history has left a lasting bad stench in the eyes of voters.
“The PRI has become the Chernobyl of Mexican politics. It is very toxic.”
What will be the outgoing president's legacy?
Lopez Obrador, who is consistently ranked one of the most popular world leaders currently in power, was elected president in 2018 after two failed bids for the presidency.
Known for his outspoken nature, President Lopez Obrador has made tackling poverty a central pillar of his presidency.
But the president is also pursuing controversial plans that critics say are aimed at weakening the independence of the country's judiciary and election watchdog, and expanding the military's role in infrastructure development and public safety projects despite concerns about human rights abuses.
Critics have also expressed dismay at the president's failure to do more to curb crime and address Mexico's thousands of missing people, which have totaled more than 100,000 during his presidency.
Most of those cases were recorded after the country began its “war on drugs” in 2006. Providing information to the families of the missing was a pledge made by Lopez Obrador during his 2018 election campaign.
Why can't AMLO run for a second term?
During his time in office, President Lopez Obrador has achieved something that is becoming increasingly difficult to achieve in international politics: consistently high popularity.
According to the American Association/Council of American States polling tracking system, AMLO's approval rating has fallen from an early high of 81 percent but has never dipped below 60 percent.
Given his popularity, why can't Lopez Obrador himself run for a second term?
The answer is simple: Mexico's constitution explicitly limits the president to one term.
This is a legacy of the Mexican Revolution, following the decades-long rule of dictator Porfirio Díaz, known as the Porfiriato, whose leadership transformed “no reelection” into a common slogan.
