At least four sites have interactive maps you can make changes to determine who will win in November. My lead chart represents my base case scenario. Economics will explain why.
Interactive Websites and Features
- 270toWin: The 270toWin site lets you change states at will, but it doesn't provide any parameters that you can change to see the impact. This is not a serious site for playing “What If.”
- RaceToTheWH: RTTWH is a sprawling site with a variety of interactive features. The sprawling nature of the site makes things complicated. The links provided allow you to adjust your national vote for Trump or Biden. However, national trends do not decide the election.
- Wall Street Journal: The WSJ site requires a fee. You can adjust for education, race, gender, age, and voter turnout. You can also adjust for third-party voting. However, all adjustments are made at the national level.
- 538 Nate Silver: 538 is easier to use than WSJ. And it's free. However, like WSJ, it doesn't let you select individual states.
Recommendations
For interactive, start with 538. For up-to-the-minute forecasts, try RTTWH.
First, we need polls that disaggregate a variety of dimensions, including education, race, gender, age, voter turnout, and third-party voting.
This is not determined by national trends.
Battleground state polls
I started with the New York Times/Siena Voter Survey in the presidential battleground states from April 28 to May 9.
But if you take the poll above as a starting point and apply the percentages at a national level, you get some interesting, yet laughable results.
For example, Trump won California. In fact, Trump won every state except Hawaii, Massachusetts, Washington DC, and Vermont.
That doesn't happen, which is why we really need a state-by-state breakdown.
Also, income data is very hard to find, so in 538 you need to remove that parameter and adjust accordingly.
Start All Over
Starting from scratch, I tried to find the minimum change that would result in a Trump victory consistent with the New York Times poll.
For example, consider the age groups 18-29 and 30-34.
Biden beat Trump by 29 percentage points among the 18-29 age group and 24 percentage points among the 30-34 age group in 2020. Trump is ahead in the battleground states!
In the 2020 election, Biden led Trump among black voters by 82 percentage points. That margin has now narrowed to 58-12 (46 percentage points).
These figures include RFK.
A slight shift in Biden's approval rating among 18-29 year-olds, from +29 to +24, would be enough for Trump to secure an Electoral College victory 272-262 and flip Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia.
Also, a slight shift for Biden in the 30-44 age group from +24 to +20 would give Trump a 291-247 victory and would also see him take Pennsylvania.
Keep in mind that polls in battleground states show Trump winning among these age groups.
If we also adjust the percentage of blacks from Biden +82 to Biden +69, Trump would add Nevada and Michigan and his electoral votes would be 312 to 226. Nevertheless, Biden still won the national vote 50-48, causing an uproar.
Here is my base case and lead chart.
Why has this shift occurred among younger and black voters?
I've answered that question a few times, but some new readers might not understand what's going on.
Black people make up just 14% of the voting age population, but their support for Trump is outsized and could sway the election outcome.
Regarding the discussion, Black voters abandon Biden in large numbers in battleground state polls
While most Black men indicated they intended to support Biden, about 30% in the poll said they would definitely or probably vote for the Republican former president.Nothing compares to the Journal's battleground-state polls from 2020, but AP VoteCast, a large-scale poll of voters, tracked Trump that year to win the votes of 12% of Black men nationwide.
Housing and inflation are the biggest issues: Rents have risen at least 0.4% each month for 32 consecutive months, according to the BLS.
Homeownership rates by generation
According to the Apartment List 2023 Millennial Homeownership Report, millennials are significantly lagging behind other generations in homeownership.
Gen Z’s homeownership rates are dropping even more dramatically.
According to the National Association of Realtors, the homeownership rate for black Americans is 44 percent, compared to 72.7 percent for white Americans.
This is the largest gap in homeownership rates between blacks and whites in the past decade.
Q: What are young voters really thinking?
A: Rent
Tenants decide the election
I will summarise everything in a post Renters will decide the 2024 presidential election
Q: Who are the borrowers?
A: Young voters and blacks
This completely explains the huge swings in polling numbers among young voters and blacks, and when immigration is taken into account, a landslide victory is not out of the question.
