Former President Trump's criminal trial is now in the hands of a jury, but the outcome of this historic case could have a significant impact on the 2024 election, in which the former president is facing President Biden.
Trump currently holds a slight lead in national polls and in most of the key battleground states that will determine the outcome of the rematch.
But Trump faces the possibility of being convicted of some or all of the roughly 30 felony state charges at his trial in New York City — the first time a former or sitting president has been convicted — or of a disagreement or acquittal.
Could any of these legal outcomes change the current trajectory of the White House race?
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Former President Trump sits in court during his hush money trial in Manhattan Criminal Court in New York City on May 21, 2024. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)
“I don't think a conviction is going to fundamentally change the complexion of the race,” said veteran pollster Chris Anderson, a member of Fox News' election decision team and the Democratic partner of Fox News Polling.
Daron Shaw, professor and chair of political science at the University of Texas, a member of Fox News' decision-making team and a partner at the Republican Party, said: Fox News Poll“Before 2020, no one would have thought that a candidate could survive a criminal conviction,” he said.
“But times and circumstances change. While the specific findings of the jury may be important, some believe this guilty verdict will not significantly change the course of the race,” Shaw stressed.
They pointed to the fact that “attitudes are very set” regarding both the Republican former president and his Democratic successor in the White House.
Trump is charged with falsifying business records in connection with payments he made to porn actress Stormy Daniels to keep quiet about an alleged affair during the 2016 election. Trump's former lawyer, Michael Cohen, paid Daniels, whose real name is Stephanie Clifford, $130,000 in exchange for keeping quiet about an alleged affair with Trump in 2006. Prosecutors allege this amounted to an illegal attempt to influence the 2016 election.
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Both Cohen and Daniels testified for the prosecution and were grilled by Trump's defense team during cross-examination. The case has garnered widespread attention from cable news stations, online and on social media.
This courtroom sketch was taken as former President Trump looks on as Michael Cohen is re-examined by prosecutor Susan Hoffinger before Judge Juan Marchan in state court in Manhattan, New York City, on May 20, 2024, in Trump's criminal trial on charges of falsifying business records to hide payments made to silence porn actress Stormy Daniels. (Reuters/Jane Rosenberg)
The former president has repeatedly denied falsifying business records or having a sexual relationship with Daniels, and has repeatedly claimed, without presenting any evidence, that the case is a “sham trial instigated and prosecuted directly from within the White House and the Department of Justice.”
Trump has also been fined several times in the case and threatened with jail by the judge for violating a gag order meant to protect witnesses and jurors from the former president's verbal attacks.
A national Fox News poll conducted earlier this month found that nearly half of registered voters questioned said Trump had acted illegally in violation of campaign finance laws, and another quarter said he had acted unethically.
Trump is aiming to flip Democratic states to Republicans in a rematch with Biden in 2024.
Only 27% said the former president committed no significant wrongdoing, but that number jumped to 54% among Trump supporters.
The same survey showed that voters are sharply divided on whether Trump's legal treatment was fair (51%) or unfair (47%). As expected, there are stark partisan divisions, with 9 in 10 Democrats saying the former president was treated fairly, while 85% of Republicans disagree.
A CBS News poll found that a majority of Americans say Trump is definitely or probably guilty in the case, 56% to 44%, but there is a wide partisan divide on the issue.
Former President Trump waves as he leaves Trump Tower on his way to criminal court in Manhattan, New York City, Tuesday, May 21, 2024. (AP Photo/Julia Nickinson)
Would a guilty verdict for President Trump dramatically change the status quo in the presidential election?
Recent national polls suggest that if Trump is convicted at trial, he could see a small but decisive drop in his approval rating.
In a Quinnipiac University poll, 62% of voters said a conviction would not affect their vote in the presidential election, while 15% said it would make them more likely to vote for Trump and 21% said it would make them less likely to vote for the former president.
Additionally, the ABC News/Ipsos poll found that 8 in 10 Trump supporters said they would still support the presumptive Republican presidential nominee if he were convicted in court, while 16% said they would reconsider their support and 4% said they would no longer support Trump.
Additionally, the Reuters/Ipsos poll showed that approval ratings would fall by two points if the former president were convicted, and by six points if Trump were sent to prison.
Anderson likened a possible conviction to the infamous video that briefly damaged Trump's chances of winning the 2016 presidential election.
“Trump's approval ratings may suffer an Access Hollywood-style slump and he may be temporarily chilled among some of his most ardent supporters, but he will likely be forgiven by November,” Anderson said. “So while I don't think a conviction would fundamentally change the face of the race, it certainly would set new contours that would have meaning in a close race.”
President Biden (right) and former President Trump scheduled two debates in June and September, with the president lagging behind Trump in key battleground states. (Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg via Getty Images | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
“This is a difficult case, and the prosecutors and the judge are viewed as partisan underdogs not only by the Trump campaign but by many legal experts as well,” said Shaw, a top strategist for former President George W. Bush's 2000 and 2004 campaigns.
“This framing has influenced the opinions of voters, most of whom have already made their judgment about Trump and the charges he faces,” Shaw emphasized.
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But what if the case results in an acquittal or a disagreement? The Trump campaign would tout this as a political victory. Unfortunately, there is little public opinion polling on these legal scenarios.
But Anderson stressed that whatever the outcome, the historic trial will have an impact.
“Whatever the verdict, this trial is clearly not something that Trump wants to deal with right now, and it's not helping him,” Anderson said. “What would help him would be an acquittal, where he could claim innocence, but even if that were the case, it's hard to imagine that it would be entirely to his advantage.”
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