MEXICO CITY — Latin America's second-largest economy will undergo one of the most important electoral processes in the country's history: For the first time, citizens will have the choice to elect a woman as president to succeed the popular and charismatic Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known as AMLO.
The size of Mexico's economy, immigration, drug trafficking networks, foreign affairs and the possibility of a woman succeeding AMLO are the main issues drawing Latin America's attention to the Mexican vote, according to three analysts who spoke to Bloomberg Linear.
Claudia Sheinbaum, Xochitl Gálvez and Jorge Álvarez Maínez will be competing for the votes of Mexico's 98.3 million registered citizens when the vote goes to the polls on Sunday, June 2. They are seeking to win the presidency for the 2025-2030 term.
On Tuesday, May 28, the day before the election campaign ended, Bloomberg News' Mexico Election 2024 Tracker showed Sheinbaum leading with 57% of the vote, followed by Galvez with 32% and Minez with 11%.
Sheinbaum, Xochitl, and Mainez: A Plan for Latin America
Mexicans' encounter with democracy came after a three-month electoral campaign and three presidential debates organized by the National Electoral Commission (INE).
While the three presidential candidates' campaigns focused on domestic issues, including social programs and proposals to reduce inequality, the third debate saw the candidates outline their vision for Mexico's relations with Latin America.
Mexico, along with Chile, Colombia and Peru, is a member of the Pacific Alliance, which constitutes a platform for promoting cooperation with the Asia-Pacific region.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the trading bloc accounts for 41 percent of Latin America's gross domestic product (GDP), 59 percent of its total trade, and 44 percent of its total foreign direct investment.
According to World Bank data, Mexico is solidifying its position as a major export power in Latin America, with exports expected to account for 42.8% of the region's total in 2023. Mexico's exports of medium and high-tech manufacturing stand out in particular, accounting for more than half of the region's total.
Claudia Sheinbaum, AMLO's candidate
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Claudia Sheinbaum, the official candidate of the “Let’s Keep Making History” coalition, has defended AMLO’s foreign policy, calling it a “mark of pride,” but unlike the president, she has pledged to reform the National Migration Institute and the Mexican Commission for Assistance to Refugees (Comar).
If elected, the Morena, Workers' and Green Party candidates will work to deepen relations with Latin America and the Caribbean and strengthen ties with the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC).
Sheinbaum said he would continue to develop economic development hubs in southeastern Mexico, including an industrial hub, one of AMLO's flagship projects. He also wants to boost development on Mexico's southern border with the Mayan and transoceanic trains, and extend those trains to Central America to boost jobs.
Xochitl Gálvez, the leading opposition candidate
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For Xochitl Gálvez, the opposition candidate from the Strength and Heart for Mexico coalition, AMLO's foreign policy is a “huge failure.” If elected, her policies will respect human rights and immigration freedoms and she has pledged to bring order to a southern border that she sees as crime-ridden.
Candidates from the National Action Party (PAN), Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) proposed regularization programs and increased issuance of work visas for immigrants from the U.S. Galvez said he loves the people of Cuba, Nicaragua, Russia and Venezuela, but “we are not going to invite their armies to parade in Mexico.”
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Candidate Jorge Mainez criticizes “old politics”
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Jorge Álvarez Maínez, the Citizens' Movement candidate, argued that Mexico's foreign policy must be changed, saying that one of the government's biggest mistakes was to focus its policies on bilateral relations with the United States, despite the possibility of forming alliances with other Latin American countries.
Mines criticized his rivals for representing “old politics” and asserted that if he wins the presidential election, his first meeting with a head of state would be with Brazilian President Lula da Silva in order to strengthen ties with the United States.
Latin America's Challenges with Mexico
Elijah Oliveros Rosen, chief emerging markets economist at S&P Global Ratings, said Latin American countries see Mexico as a country that will remain a pillar of economic growth after the election, which means continued fiscal, monetary and trade stability and discipline.
He noted that the polls for this election are clearer than others and that Scheinbaum is likely to win, but said the composition of parliament is drawing attention from abroad as a factor in determining how aggressively government policies will be pursued.
“Our macroeconomic assumption is that the next administration will not bring about dramatic changes in any direction, fiscal, monetary or trade,” Elijah Oliveros Rosen said.
Veronica Artora Harrin, former governor of Ecuador's central bank, said the region is closely watching the presidential election because of Mexico's economic and commercial relations with Latin America, as well as how the new government will approach immigration policy.
The region's drug trafficking networks are another focus of the election campaign, which is expected to show how the new administration will confront the taint of organized crime in Mexico, Ecuador and other countries, said the vice dean of economics at the Pontifical Catholic University of Ecuador.
Artora Harin welcomed the possibility that Mexico will be governed by a woman for the first time, saying this could serve as a guide and a lesson for countries that have not yet reached that stage.
Marco Oviedo, a Latin America economist and strategist at XP, noted that markets are calm for now because the official candidate has a large lead in the polls that would lead to victory, plus AMLO has high approval ratings and is considered a much-loved president.
A Sao Paulo-based Mexican analyst said investors were more concerned about the composition of Congress, as polls show Morena is likely to win two-thirds of the seats in the lower house and the senate, which would be a negative scenario and cement Morena's position as the main political force in the country.
“The elections haven't received much attention because from the beginning it was expected that the candidate would win by a large margin and the market believes it's already decided. The markets are watching and there may be some fluctuations depending on the outcome, but everyone will be paying close attention on June 3,” Marco Oviedo said.
