Steve Peoples
NEW YORK (AP) — Donald Trump has been convicted of 34 felonies and in many states is barred from owning guns, holding public office or even voting.
But in 158 days, voters across America will decide whether Trump should return to the White House to serve another four years as president.
Trump's conviction in the hush-money trial in New York on Thursday was a stunning development in an already unusual presidential election, with profound implications for the justice system and perhaps American democracy itself.
But in a deeply divided America, it's unclear whether Trump's status as a convicted felon will have any impact on the 2024 election. The Republican former president faces a possible prison sentence ahead of the November election, but that doesn't stop him from remaining competitive against President Joe Biden in this fall's election.
There were immediate signs that, at least in the short term, the unanimous guilty verdict was helping to unify fragmented factions within the Republican Party, as GOP officials in Congress and state capitals across the country backed Trump, who is set to become the presumptive presidential nominee, and whose campaign had hoped it would benefit from a large influx of new fundraising money.
Standing outside the courtroom, Trump said the verdict was the result of a “fraudulent and disgraceful trial.”
“The real verdict will be given by the American people on November 5th,” Trump said, referring to Election Day. “It's not over yet.”
The immediate reaction from Democrats was muted by comparison, but the Biden campaign issued a fundraising appeal within minutes of the ruling, suggesting the fundamentals of the election had not changed.
“We are pleased that justice has finally been served,” the campaign wrote, “but even without a significant increase in Democratic support, this convicted felon can still return to office this fall.”
Although some public opinion polls have been conducted on the impact of a guilty verdict, such hypothetical scenarios are notoriously difficult to predict.
A recent ABC News/Ipsos poll found that just 4% of people would withdraw their support if Trump were convicted of a felony, but an additional 16% said they would reconsider.
On the eve of the ruling, the Trump campaign released a memo from its polling team suggesting the impact of the trial was “already priced into the race in the targeted states.”
Advisers to the Trump campaign argued the lawsuit would help galvanize their core supporters. The campaign's fundraising platform, WinRed, received so many donations that it crashed. Aides scrambled to set up a backup platform to collect the influx of money.
Trump headed to a fundraiser scheduled for before the sentencing on Thursday night, according to the people, who were not authorized to speak publicly.
His most senior campaign advisers, Suzie Wiles and Chris LaCivita, were with him in Palm Beach, Florida, where his campaign headquarters is located, rather than in New York.
It may be days or weeks before we know for sure, but Trump critics from both parties generally agree the political fallout would likely be modest, though some hope a conviction would have at least a slight impact in what is likely to be a close election.
Sarah Longwell, founder of a group called Anti-Trump Republican Voters, which regularly conducts focus groups, suggested a conviction could work in Biden's favor by alienating so-called “double haters” – a term used to describe voters who dislike both Trump and Biden – from Trump.
But most of all, she suggested that voters just weren't following the trial very closely.
“The best thing about this being over is that it's over,” Longwell said, describing the court proceedings as a distraction from the more serious issues of the campaign. “Now we have an opportunity to focus on who Trump is and what a second term for Trump would look like.”
Republican pollster Neil Newhouse predicted the trial may ultimately have little impact in a fast-paced news environment with just months to go before early voting begins.
“Voters have short memories and even shorter attention spans,” Newhouse said. “Just as the former president's two impeachments did little to dent Trump's support, this conviction may be overshadowed by the first presidential debate in three weeks.”
The judge set the sentence for July 11, four days before the Republican National Convention is scheduled to start in Milwaukee.
Each charge of falsifying business records carries a maximum prison sentence of four years, but prosecutors have not said whether they intend to seek prison time, and it is unclear whether the judge, who warned of prison time for violating the gag order at the start of the trial, would impose that penalty if sought.
If Trump is not in prison on Election Day, he will be able to vote in Florida, where he established his residency in 2019.
And imprisonment would not stop Trump from continuing his bid for the White House.
Trump's daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, who appeared in court with the former president this week and is also co-chair of the Republican National Committee, said in an interview with Fox News Channel before the verdict that Trump would still decide to run for president if he was convicted.
If Trump is sentenced to house arrest, “then that will mean virtual rallies and campaign events, and we have to play with the cards we're dealt,” she said.
No campaign rallies are currently scheduled, but Trump is expected to hold a fundraiser next week.
Biden himself has yet to comment.
He had spent the night at his family's beach house in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, after celebrating the anniversary of his son Beau's death at church that morning.
Texas voter and nurse Steven Garner, 24, said he hasn't yet decided who he'll vote for in the next election.
Garner, an independent, said the verdict could be a deciding factor for him once he learns the details of the case, but he doesn't think it will sway many voters already committed to a rematch between Biden and Trump.
“I think his base is the type that doesn't really care about the court system or might agree with him,” Garner said of Trump.
Indeed, Republicans from Florida to Wisconsin, Arkansas to Illinois have denounced the convictions as miscarriages of justice perpetrated by politically motivated prosecutors and Democratic juries.
Wisconsin Republican Party Executive Chairman Brian Simming called the lawsuit against Trump a “sham” and a “national embarrassment.”
“There was no justice in New York today,” Siming charged.
Michael Pérez Ruiz, 47, who was ordering a meal at Versailles restaurant, an icon of Miami's Republican-leaning Cuban-American community, shortly after the verdict was announced, said he would continue to support Trump.
“I would vote for him 20 times,” Pérez Ruiz said.
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Associated Press writers Emily Swanson and Zeke Miller in Washington, Jill Colvin and Michelle L. Price in New York, Todd Richmond in Madison, Wisconsin, Adriana Gomez Licon in Miami and Valerie Gonzalez in McAllen, Texas, contributed.