WASHINGTON (AP) — A general election that could determine the Senate majority begins shortly after Montana voters confirm their candidates in Tuesday's primary.
At the center of the political storm in Montana is the U.S. Senate race, where Democrats Jon Tester Republican leaders, including Sen. Steve DainesJohn F. Kennedy, chairman of the Republican National Senatorial Committee, is endorsing the Republican nominee, Tim Sheehy, a retired Navy SEAL with enough personal wealth to fund an expensive challenge to Tester, alongside two other candidates on the ballot.
Congressman Matt RosendaleSheehy's attempt to enter the race was quickly rebuffed, as former President Donald Trump endorsed Sheehy on the same day Rosendale announced his Senate run. Rosendale dropped out of the race less than a week later, announcing his intention to run for reelection instead, but by that point Republicans had already announced their intentions to run for his vacant House seat. Rosendale is not currently running at all in 2024.
State Auditor Troy Downing is also among the candidates in the crowded primary to replace Rosendale, along with former Rep. Jason McClellan. Denny Rehberg Several others. Meanwhile, Rep. Ryan Zinke, another member of Montana's congressional delegation, is running for reelection, as is Gov. Greg Gianforte.
Tester is a top Republican target and one of two Democrats seeking reelection in a state won by Trump in 2020. Rosendale was unsuccessful in unseating Tester in the 2018 election, and Republicans are hoping Sheehy will have more success.
The Rosendale seat could mark a major political comeback for Rehberg, or it could serve as a springboard for other candidates in the crowded field: Daines, who served as a statewide representative before making the jump to the Senate; and Gianforte, who was elected to the House in a hotly contested special election in 2017 and is now governor.
Let's take a look at what to expect on Tuesday:
Primary Election Day
The primary election will take place on Tuesday. Polls close at 10pm ET, 8pm local time.
Voting Content
The Associated Press publishes the results of 72 elections, including presidential primaries, and determines the winner. Each ballot has only two candidates on it – President Trump and Democratic President Joe Biden – but voters can select “no preference” or write in a candidate for both elections.
The Associated Press is also tallying results from the Republican and Democratic primaries for the U.S. Senate. Tester is on the Democratic ballot along with Michael Hummert, who had not reported any campaign fundraising as of the latest deadline. Tester has $11.8 million in funds and has spent $26 million this election cycle as of the last reporting period.
Voters will also have the option to choose candidates for governor and lieutenant governor running as a team on one ballot.
In addition to the state House primary and attorney general elections, other statewide offices, including secretary of state and attorney general, will also appear on the ballot.
Who will vote?
Montana has an open primary system, meaning any registered voter can participate in any party's primary election.
Delegation assignment rules
Montana's 20 Democratic delegates are allocated according to standard national party rules: Five statewide delegates are allocated proportionally to the statewide vote, as are three PLEO delegates, or “party chairs and elected officials.” The state's two districts have a total of 12 delegates, allocated proportionally to the vote in each district. Candidates must receive at least 15% of the statewide vote to become a statewide delegate, and at least 15% of the district vote to become a delegate in that district.
In the Republican primary, 31 delegates are not tied to a presidential candidate.
Decision
Though Sheehy has never appeared on the ballot for statewide office, he has a big financial advantage in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate, having already spent $8.3 million and had another $2.2 million in the bank as of filing May 15. The other two candidates on the ballot have not come close to raising or spending what Sheehy has.
Gianforte is running for another term as governor along with Lt. Gov. Kristen Juras. He is facing a challenge from the right from state Rep. Tanner Smith, who represents part of Flathead County in the state House of Representatives. Smith's lieutenant, Randy Pinocchi, represents Public Utilities Commission District 1, which covers much of the eastern part of the state.
Decadal redistricting split Montana's entire statewide congressional district into two. The 1st covers the western part of the state and runs along the border with Idaho. Most of the district favors Republicans, but there are areas around a few cities, including Bozeman, Missoula, and Butte, that lean Democratic. That makes the 1st a target for Democrats. In the 2022 general election, Zinke beat Democratic candidate Monica Tranel by just 3 percentage points. Tranel is running unopposed for the 2024 nomination.
The 2nd Congressional District, which stretches from Helena to the North Dakota border in the eastern part of the state, is more Republican than the 1st. Rehberg, Downing and Superintendent of Public Schools Elsie Arntzen have appeared on statewide ballots before and are familiar names to many voters. Downing has a significant advertising advantage over her rivals, according to data from AdImpact.
State Senate President Pro Tempore Ken Bognar is also running for the open District 2 seat. Bognar is from Miles City, Custer County, and is well behind many other candidates in fundraising.
AP does not make predictions and will only announce a winner if it determines there is no scenario in which a trailing candidate could close the gap. If the election result is not finalized, AP will continue to cover newsworthy developments, such as a candidate conceding or claiming victory. When we do, we will make it clear that we have not yet announced a winner and explain why.
Montana elections have an automatic recount in the event of a tie, and candidates can request a recount if the margin of victory is less than 0.5 percentage points.
What is the turnout and early voting like?
As of May 22, there are 752,395 registered voters in Montana. Voters in Montana do not register with a political party.
In the 2020 presidential election, turnout in the Democratic primary was 22% of registered voters and turnout in the Republican primary was 31%.
In the June 2022 primary, about 87% of votes were cast before Election Day.
As of May 28, a total of 448,022 ballots had been sent to voters and 136,979 ballots had been returned.
How long does vote counting usually take?
In the 2022 primary, the Associated Press first reported results at 10:06 p.m. ET, six minutes after the polls closed. Election night counting finished at 6:02 a.m. ET, with approximately 93% of the total votes counted.
Have you arrived yet?
As of Tuesday, there were 41 days until the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, 76 days until the Democratic National Convention in Chicago and 154 days until the general election in November.
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