- author, Marcos Martinez
- role, BBC Monitoring
Mexico's next presidential election is already attracting a lot of media attention as it is expected to result in the country's first female head of state.
Opinion polls show front-runner Claudia Scheinbaum and her main rival Xochitl Gálvez holding large leads over their male counterparts, making a female president a foregone conclusion.
But whoever wins this Sunday will have to deal with Mexico's delicate relationship with the United States, not only its northern neighbor but also its largest commercial partner.
U.S. authorities have largely blamed Mexican drug cartels for the epidemic of fentanyl overdoses and deaths in the United States, but how to deal with the cartels isn't the only challenge facing Mexican presidential candidates.
The winner will also have to address the record influx of foreign migrants travelling through Mexico to the United States, a hot topic in the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
The scenario is complicated by the possible return to the US presidency of Donald Trump, whose hardline stance on immigration and drugs has drawn attention south of the border.
Trump has vowed that if he returns to the White House, he will launch the largest “deportation campaign” in US history to remove illegal immigrants already in the country.
Some Mexican media commentators have said the possibility of Trump running for office for a second time is an “issue that cannot be ignored” for Mexican presidential candidates.
Both Mr. Scheinbaum and Mr. Galvez stressed the importance of the Mexico-U.S. relationship and pledged to pursue a wide range of positive bilateral cooperation.
Scheinbaum, running for the ruling Morena party, vowed to be “proud” to continue the foreign policy of his mentor, outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
Relations between the U.S. and Mexico have not been without tension during President Lopez Obrador's six years in power, with disagreements flaring over U.S. counter-narcotics efforts in Mexico and measures the U.S. has taken at the border to control migration.
Opposition candidate Xochitl Gálvez called the outgoing administration's foreign policy a “catastrophe.”
But like Scheinbaum, she also takes a strong pro-immigration stance, particularly when it comes to Mexican immigrants in the United States.
Aware of the strong nationalistic pride in Mexico, both candidates stressed in recent presidential debates that their government would not be intimidated or threatened by the United States, particularly on immigration.
Scheinbaum said Lopez Obrador's center-right predecessors had “humiliated” the United States, and declared that “there can be no greater subservience in foreign policy.”
“We need cooperation, but not subordination,” she said in March, summarizing her vision for relations with the United States.
“We always tell them [the US] “It's better to build bridges than to build walls,” she added a few weeks later.
Opposition candidate Xochitl Galvez has also pledged a “frank, direct and clear” relationship with the United States, recognizing it as “our most important market.”
During a presidential debate, she accused the administration of “caving in” to then-President Donald Trump by agreeing to keep US-bound migrants in Mexico after he threatened to impose tariffs on Mexican products.
She also said that as president she would not “give in without a fight.”
But, she said, “authoritarian governments like Venezuela, Russia and Cuba [and] “Nicaragua will not be coming here for a parade,” she said, suggesting her government is no more friendly to such blatantly anti-American leaders than the current Mexican government and its candidate, Claudia Scheinbaum.
The two countries also clash over immigration and security policies, with the United States regularly complaining that Mexico is not cooperating enough in these key areas.
Scheinbaum echoed President Lopez Obrador's call for the U.S. to increase investment in Mexico and Central America to ease migration pressures north, arguing that “the United States can do more.”
Galvez has also made “protecting migrants” a priority, including calling for the “regularization of migration.” [of the status] For our fellow Americans.”
In public statements, at least, both Mexican presidential candidates have pledged to cooperate with the United States on combating drug trafficking.
Critics in Mexico and the United States have accused President Lopez Obrador of restricting counter-drug cooperation, particularly the activities of the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) in Mexico, but Galvez has said he will not limit intelligence exchange with the United States.
Across the border in the United States, Republican candidate Donald Trump has vowed to step up plans to secure the US border with barriers and troops, and has even reportedly suggested he may send “kill teams” into Mexico to take out drug cartel leaders.
When asked about a possible Trump victory, both Scheinbaum and Galvez said they have a good relationship and could handle it.
“President Lopez Obrador ended up having a great relationship with President Trump, so I see no reason why we can't do the same,” Scheinbaum said recently.
Galvez also said he was “not afraid of either Trump or Biden” and would work with both.
