Andrés Manuel López Obrador will not be on the ballot in Mexico's presidential election on Sunday, but he might as well be.
This vote is A popular but controversial president He is credited with lifting millions of Mexicans out of poverty while undermining some of Mexico's key institutions. Encourage the troops It has failed to stem the tide of brutal gang violence.
Claudia Scheinbaum Lopez Obrador's successor, a former Mexico City mayor, has a strong chance of winning the election because she has vowed to advance his signature projects, including welfare programs and efforts to reform the justice system.
On the other hand, her greatest enemy is Xochitl Galvez, The entrepreneur and former senator, who heads the opposition coalition, has sought to exploit middle- and upper-class resentment against the president, widely known by his initials AMLO.
“This is about AMLO,” said Lila Abed, deputy director of the Mexico Institute at the Wilson Center, a Washington think tank. “I think there are a lot of people who will vote for AMLO. [Sheinbaum] I will vote for him with all my heart.”
read more:What you need to know about Mexico's big election on Sunday
Abed said that if Sheinbaum does indeed win, one question above all else will emerge: “What role will AMLO play over the next six years? Will he be actively involved in the decisions she makes as president?”
Sheinbaum rejected allegations that Lopez Obrador was manipulating the presidency as misogynistic.
In some ways, the heated debate over Lopez Obrador's record and accomplishments has overshadowed a more compelling story: the almost certain prospect that the next president will be a woman.
This is a first for Mexico, a traditionally conservative country. Masculinity and a high percentage Violence against women. Women have made great strides in the country's political world since a 2019 constitutional amendment created quotas calling for equal representation of men and women in all elected positions at the federal, state and city levels. Currently, about half of parliamentarians are female.
Sunday's election will be the biggest in Mexico's history. Voters will choose a new president, as well as 128 senators, 500 members of the House of Representatives, eight state governors, the Mexico City mayor and thousands of local officials. The Mexican president will serve a six-year term.
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In addition to breaking down gender barriers, this election has important policy implications for both Mexico and the United States.
The two countries share a sometimes uneasy partnership over security concerns such as migration, organized crime and drug trafficking, but trade between them approaches $1 trillion a year.
Lopez Obrador has largely cooperated with Washington on key issues, even as he frequently criticizes Washington policies and American culture, citing “violent interference” and what he calls “abusive interference.” The moral decadence of the United States. Meanwhile, both Scheinbaum and Galvez have pledged to maintain close ties with the United States.
“The two countries are very closely tied economically, and both sides know that undermining that would have very serious consequences,” said Tony Payan, director of the U.S.-Mexico Center at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy. “No one wants that to happen.”
The future of U.S.-Mexico relations may depend more on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election in November than on who wins the Mexican election.
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Former President Donald Trump, a fierce critic of immigration and free trade, had threatened to impose tariffs on Mexican imports if Mexico did not do more to stop migrants from reaching the US border, a move Lopez Obrador quickly agreed to despite criticism that he was doing Washington's “dirty work.”
Mexico has deployed troops in recent months to push migrants back from the border fence and off northbound freight trains into southern Mexico, often to try to re-enter the country.
But the 2,000-mile border has become a major political issue in the United States, and experts say Mexico's new president will continue to face strong pressure from Washington to crack down on migration.
Neither Scheinbaum nor Galvez offered much insight into how to address this issue.
A bigger political challenge for Mexico's president-elect will be how to curb rampant drug cartel and gang violence, with public opinion polls showing security is a top concern for Mexican voters.
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Although murders have declined slightly over the past few years, Mexico's murder rate remains one of the highest in the world – five times that of the United States.
And this number has “Had disappeared” Most are victims of gang violence, and their numbers have soared to more than 100,000 during Lopez Obrador's term in office.
Much of Mexico is controlled by a complex patchwork of criminal groups, and many local governments are in the pocket of organized crime.
“Drug cartels need local political allies to operate,” said Victor Clark Alfaro, a longtime human rights activist in the border city of Tijuana. “Corruption is rife in local governments.”
Mexico's criminal justice system is deeply broken, and the majority of crimes are never solved.
read more:Dreams interrupted: Mexico's surge in gang violence causes US migrants to rethink plans to return home
President Lopez Obrador has handed many security tasks to the military, an admission that police and the civilian justice system have failed to cope with the crisis, but experts say the military is ill-equipped to take on civilian law enforcement.
The national elections have dramatically highlighted the extent of crime in Mexico. At least 31 candidates Assassinated, Attacks against politicians have reached record levels.
“The country's political stability and future development depend on its ability to confront and overcome this wave of political violence,” journalist Yuriria Sierra wrote in Mexico's Excelsior newspaper.
In addition to feeling pressure to reduce violence at home, Mexico's next president is likely to face increasing demands from Washington to curb cartels' drug-trafficking activities, particularly the smuggling of fentanyl, a synthetic opioid blamed for tens of thousands of deaths in the United States each year.
U.S. lawmakers have grown frustrated with what they say is insufficient action from President Lopez Obrador's administration, which has also restricted access to Mexico for U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration agents.
read more:Mexico shootings become presidential election issue
“Mutual trust between the United States and Mexico has deteriorated in recent years,” said Abed of the Wilson Center. “Security cooperation has also deteriorated. Mutual trust will need to be rebuilt.”
Governor Scheinbaum vowed to reduce violence, talking about policies such as expanding training for police and the National Guard, improving law enforcement's intelligence gathering capabilities and providing educational opportunities for young people to keep them from joining organized crime.
“Where should children be? On the streets or in school?” Sheinbaum asked supporters in his closing campaign speech in Mexico City's historic Zocalo (main square) on Wednesday.
It's a lot like Lopez Obrador's “hugs, not bullets” strategy of attacking the root causes of crime rather than trying to take down drug cartel bosses.
Opposition presidential candidate Galvez has vowed to “no longer embrace” criminals, but she too has offered few concrete examples to back up her heartfelt pledge to end violence.
“I propose that you restore peace and tranquility to your families,” Galvez told the crowd at a closing rally of his campaign in the northern city of Monterrey.
The daily reports of murder and mayhem clash with another vision for the country: that of Mexico as a growing base for international companies wanting to relocate operations from Asia and Europe to be closer to U.S. markets, a phenomenon known as nearshoring.
“Mexico has a huge opportunity right now as the nearshoring movement strengthens its position as a trading hub in the global economy,” said Falco Ernst, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, a nonprofit research group.
But he said that potential may not be realized to its fullest extent “unless we find a way to stop Mexico from descending into violent chaos.”
Special correspondent Cecilia Sanchez Vidal contributed to this report.
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This article originally appeared in the Los Angeles Times.
