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A Morning Consult poll taken shortly after the verdict was handed down found that most Americans support the decision of a New York jury to find former President Donald Trump guilty of 34 felony counts related to a scheme to hide his relationship with a porn star in the heat of the 2024 presidential election, but few think he should go to prison.
Meanwhile, Trump's standing with President Joe Biden did not deteriorate overnight, as few Republicans want him to drop out of the race, nor do they want the GOP presidential nominee to distance himself from Biden, who is almost certain to be the nominee.
Voters' thoughts on New York hush money jury decision
More than half (54%) support the historic decision of the 12-journalist to convict the former president on 34 felony charges related to a hush-money scam with adult actress Stormy Daniels in 2016, according to a new survey of 2,200 voters nationwide conducted the day after the verdict.
Our poll revealed deep partisan divisions over the verdict, with Democrats more likely than Republicans to support it (88% to 74%). The verdict was supported by more than half of independents (52%), roughly the same share as those who said they believed Trump was guilty.
Following his conviction, Trump has issued familiar cries of a politically motivated campaign against him, similar to the rhetoric he used after Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg indicted him in March 2023. That rhetoric continues to resonate with most Republicans, but the percentage of overall voters who believe Trump committed a crime has increased over the past 14 months.
The latest poll finds that 52% of voters believe Trump committed a crime in connection with his affair with Daniels, up from 46% at the time of his indictment last year. The increase is driven by Democrats (77% to 88%), while Republicans remain steadfast in their belief that the affair was politically motivated (76% to 77%).
Among independent voters, the change was a mixed bag for Trump: belief on both sides of the issue grew as opinions formed, but overall the change favored Trump.
The political impact of convicting President Trump
The race between Trump and Biden remains close, with nearly 90% of voters saying they had heard at least something about it last night. Trump has faced little pressure from Republican elites to drop his campaign, and certainly not from most Republican voters.
In a survey conducted Friday, only 15% of Republicans nationwide want Trump to drop out of the presidential race, slightly more than the 8% of Trump supporters who say the same. That figure among Republicans overall is consistent with the share of Republican primary voters we track who supported the last remaining candidate in the primary, a group that includes a small number of independents.
There was little intraparty pressure on Trump, but the survey showed teeth Great pressure on other Republican politicians.
Roughly four in five Trump supporters (and about seven in 10 Republicans) say other Republican politicians should campaign publicly with Trump and raise money for his presidential campaign.
While a majority of voters overall say Republican politicians should withdraw their support for Trump following his conviction, few in Trump's base or within his party agree, and they are similarly divided on whether those same politicians should defend the U.S. justice system.
Just over a quarter (27%) of voters say Republican politicians should defend the criminal justice system in the wake of Trump's conviction, compared with 53% of voters overall who say the same.
What do voters expect to see next from the courts?
The legal battle over Trump's hush money will reach its next turning point on July 11, when the judge overseeing the case schedules a sentencing hearing. While voters believe Trump is guilty and support the sentence, the idea of putting him in prison could be divisive.
Nearly half of voters (18% of Democrats, 49% of independents, and 82% of Republicans) say they would oppose any prison time for former President Trump's 34 Class E felonies, each of which carries a maximum sentence of four years in prison. Among all voters, the most popular choice (69%) was to fine Trump, followed by 49% who wanted a suspended sentence.
That question may never actually come before voters, but Trump's candidacy likely will. Trump faces two additional lawsuits at the federal level related to his handling of classified documents after he left the White House and his actions after the 2020 presidential election that led to the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, and most voters want to know answers to those, too.
Seven in 10 voters say it is very or somewhat important that the cases be decided before the November election, including 49% who say it is “very important.” Forty-three percent of independents and 26% of Republicans see the issue as critical because legal maneuvering could lead to the two cases being delayed until after Election Day.
Conclusion
Trump's criminal conduct is approved by a majority of voters — in fact, by nearly one in five voters in his own party — and time will tell whether this weighs on his campaign.
But with roughly four in five Republicans saying they want Trump to continue campaigning, politicians on the right have little incentive to try to remove him from the political stage, perpetuating a vicious cycle that has fueled his ascendency as party leader.
