John: Tomorrow, Mexico will hold its largest election in history, with roughly 100 million people registered to vote.
The election, coming at a time when gang and drug cartel violence is at record levels, hinges heavily on the legacy of outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
Ali Roguin looks at what's at stake for Mexico and the United States.
Ali: Whatever the outcome of Mexico's election this Sunday, the country will almost certainly elect its first female president.
And voters are hoping that will bring about change.
>> [TRANSLATED] This would be a huge step forward because it shows that we can all do it, that we are capable of moving forward and moving our country forward, just as other women presidents have done.
Ali: The leading candidates are Claudia Scheinbaum and Xochitl Gálvez.
Opinion polls are favoring Scheinbaum of the ruling Morena party.
She is a former Mexico City mayor and a close aide to outgoing President Andrés Manuel López.
–Obrador.
Scheinbaum has pledged to continue the social welfare programs that made Lopez Obrador so popular.
>> [TRANSLATED] This administration's promise to reform the country is a humanitarian model, protecting our heirlooms, and improving wages and pensions without raising taxes.
Ali: Poll-leading her by double digits is Galvez, a former senator who is backed by the opposition coalition.
She has promised to restore democratic checks and balances that she says have been weakened under the current president.
>> [TRANSLATED] As President I will punish criminals and end extortion.
ALI: Galvez has criticized President Lopez Obrador's failure to curb the drug cartel violence that has shaken the country, a central issue in this election.
In the small town of Huitzilac, residents live in constant fear as gunfights between warring gangs take over.
>> [TRANSLATED] When the phone rings, I'm terrified that it will be the school calling to tell me something has happened to my child.
Ali: Those seeking public office suffer from the same fears.
Dozens of local candidates were killed in the months leading up to the election.
Whoever is elected, the new head of state will inherit a country struggling with an influx of immigrants, energy and water shortages and its biggest budget deficit since the 1980s.
Joining me to discuss this landmark election is Arturo Sarukhan.
He served as Mexico's ambassador to the United States from 2007 to 2013.
Thank you so much, Ambassador, for joining us.
Let's start.
Let's talk about these two candidates.
What are they campaigning for?
>> Yes, the main issue, the number one priority for Mexican voters is public safety.
And not just because in the current election cycle, 33, 34 election candidates have been murdered by organized crime.
But the number of murders has soared over the last six years of Lopez Obrador's rule.
It's trending down. It's starting to trend down.
But the numbers still continue to break records.
ALI: And as I said, Scheinbaum is leading the polls.
She is a protégé of Lopez Obrador, also known as AMLO.
What would her presidency be like, and what are the chances that she will win?
>> That's a big question mark.
I think the main question being asked by many Mexicans and international observers is whether she will be an independent woman, able to remove herself from his ranch in southern Mexico after President Lopez Obrador leaves office.
Although she has signaled that she may deviate from some of the traditions of the Lopez Obrador administration, no major changes in her policies are expected going forward.
If she is elected, she will be the front-runner.
But we should be careful, the polls are likely to show a double-digit difference.
I think it will be even tougher tomorrow, Sunday.
Results can vary by 5%.
And that could be challenged not just by the losing candidate but also by Mr Lopez Obrador, who may claim that electoral bodies are cutting votes from his candidate.
ALI: That's interesting.
We have noted that this election campaign has been exceptionally violent.
How did that affect this election?
What impact has that had, especially with the many local races that are happening right now?
>> Well, Mexico's 2021 midterm elections have already shown signs of organized crime infiltrating local and state political processes.
And it happened again in two key gubernatorial elections in Guerrero, one of Mexico's most violent states, on the border with the U.S. state of Tamaulipas.
So the big question is whether we will see any signs of violence on Sunday.
The second, and most important, question is whether organized crime will try to disrupt or suppress the vote on Morena's behalf on Sunday.
ALI: You've talked about national security being a key issue for your constituents.
What other issues are fuelling this cycle?
>>Obviously, the issue of access to public health is that with Lopez Obrador's evisceration of the Mexican state, a lot of public health programs have been cut.
For example, access to cancer medicines for young children.
This is a very pressing issue in Mexico.
Jobs and the economy have always been relevant issues, particularly Lopez Obrador's increase in Mexico's minimum wage, which has contributed to his popularity and support for Morena.
And this had important implications from an economic standpoint for a great many Mexicans.
Ali: Of course, this comes just a few months before elections are to be held in the country.
How will the outcomes of these two elections affect U.S.-Mexico relations in the coming years?
>> Well, obviously, no country is more important to the United States than Mexico, and vice versa.
I believe these two countries are closely linked in a positive way.
But clearly, Republicans today believe that all roads to the White House go through the Mexican border, whether it's immigration, whether it's drugs, whether it's the narrative that Mexico is a real national security threat to the United States.
The dual dynamics of the two overlapping presidential election cycles, which occur every 12 years, will be daunting, especially if Donald Trump returns to the White House next year.
Ali: How does the immigration issue in particular play into this?
>> Well, Lopez Obrador has weaponized the issue of immigration and his relationship with the United States.
You know, in December, in the middle of the holidays, Secretary Blinken and Secretary Mayorkas had to rush to Mexico because Mexico decided to halt deportations and repatriations, particularly of Venezuelans coming into Mexico.
The Mexican government has reinstated these efforts.
One reason the number of illegal immigrants at the border has dropped is because Mexico is detaining them in Border Patrol custody.
But in my view, there are big questions as to whether President Lopez Obrador, who leaves office on October 1st, a month before Americans head to the polls, will decide to open the immigration valve in order to exert some pressure on the United States and President Biden before the election.
Ali: Former Ambassador to the United States Arturo, that's an interesting trend to watch.
We are very grateful for your participation.
>> With pleasure.
