When Alejandro Mazar, an immigration lawyer specializing in cross-border contract negotiations, corporate services and immigration law, moved from Monterrey, Mexico, to The Woodlands, Texas, in the summer of 2015, the US was in the middle of an election cycle.
As he and his family were settling into their new home, Mazars said the political tensions of the time “created a vicious cycle of learned helplessness and confusion” that made him feel uneasy about living the American dream.
Mazars, who has dual citizenship, has voted in every U.S. election after living in the U.S. for 10 years but has never voted in Mexico. “I honestly don't feel like I'm ready to follow the political and social currents of both countries,” he said, referring to the “hashtag MAGA.” [movement] Drain [his] “Energy in politics.”
Texas is home to about 8 million people of Mexican descent, many of whom were born south of the border and have family members who remain deeply involved in Mexico's political and economic affairs.
This Sunday, some 100 million Mexicans will vote in a historic election that will see two women running for president from major parties for the first time.
Texans have a strong interest in Mexico's upcoming elections, the outcome of which could have lasting effects on Texas-Mexico and U.S.-Mexico relations.
The outcome of the election could, for example, affect remittance flows, which surged to $63 billion last year.
The increase in remittances is being driven by economic factors such as inflation and economic changes in the lives of people living in Mexico. The peso (super peso) is at its highest value in about seven years. The sharp rise in the value of the peso has forced immigrants living in the United States to work longer hours to make up for losses.
As the Texas Tribune reported, many are grateful that their families have access to government subsidies. Programs like Pension Bienestar provide about $350 to Mexican citizens over the age of 65. President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's slogan, “Primero los pobres” (“The poor first”), has resonated as a pressure reliever for many across the border, especially now that a strong peso has reduced the value of remittance dollars.
Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, a leading candidate in Mexico's presidential election, is a member of the ruling Morena party. Sheinbaum is Jewish, and her maternal parents immigrated to Mexico from Bulgaria to escape the Nazis in the 1930s. The 61-year-old is a former mayor of Mexico City, an engineer with a doctorate and co-recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize. She is the first woman elected to lead Mexico's capital city.
But Sheinbaum has faced skepticism about his independence from current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
Opposition candidate Senator Xochitl Gálvez, 61, is also a tech entrepreneur who heads the three-party opposition coalition. Gálvez is an indigenous Otomi ethnic group who frequently speaks about how she fled poverty and violence from her abusive alcoholic father.
But she has been embroiled in numerous corruption scandals and many are skeptical of her alignment with a party that has conservative views on reproductive rights and gender.
“I'm not really happy with any of the candidates, and none of them convince me, but I know we need to remove Morena from power,” explains Richard Rogel, a 38-year-old Mexican who has been living in the U.S. for the past four years. The Lubbock resident worries that many Mexicans are apathetic and don't care about what's at stake in this election. “U.S. and Mexican politics are intertwined, and we depend on each other economically,” he adds.
Food trailer importer Rogel said business has been steady, but that could change if elected presidents on both sides of the border don't agree with trade ideals. Nearshoring is one of his concerns. In 2023, the U.S. will buy more goods from Mexico than China or Canada, doing $798 billion in trade with Mexico.
“What would happen if China decided to open maquilas in northern Mexico?” he wonders.
Both candidates have tried to explain how they will tackle the issue of migration, conveying a similar message of promoting safe, orderly and regular migration and ensuring respect for migrants' human rights. In a column for El Universal, migration expert Andrew Serre said that although migration is not part of the election campaign, the next Mexican president must address the issue first in October. Two weeks ago, Mexico quietly launched the “Mexico Mobilidad Humana” (Humanitarian Aid Model), a strategy to deal with Mexicans abroad, migrants who want to stay in Mexico, and migrants crossing the country.
Deterrence has become the currency of exchange between AMLO and the United States towards the end of his administration. Apprehensions at the US-Mexico border have fallen by 6%, but detentions have increased across Mexico, especially on the southern border. While nothing appears to have changed at the border, the Strauss Center reports that kidnappings and extortion of migrants have further increased this year.
AMLO's “Abrazos no Barazos” (Embraces, Not Bullets) security policy has resulted in many Mexicans being forced to flee due to violence. On average, there have been 63,000 encounters with Mexicans at the US-Mexico border this fiscal year.
Scheinbaum also said he wants to strengthen asylum, refugee and repatriation policies while investing in countries of origin to avoid the problem of forced migration.
Galvez's campaign reflects these concerns, but he also claims to work with UN agencies such as the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) to train civil servants, security forces and border patrol agents on migrants' rights.
What they can or will do will depend largely on the outcome of the US elections.
