The selection of a vice presidential nominee is one of the few things over which presidential candidates have near-total power. In selecting a running mate, candidates make clear what they believe will best contribute to victory and what they believe will be most useful to their administration if they win.
Between court appearances, Donald Trump has been considering potential running mates, and like every candidate before him, he faces a number of strategic choices.1 In 2016, Trump, who is anything but private, decided he needed someone who could shore up his credibility with social conservatives, particularly evangelical Christians, who make up a key segment of the Republican base. Mike Pence was the right man for the job. Eight years later, Trump has established himself among that group and can turn his attention elsewhere.
Option one is to broaden his base beyond working-class white males by selecting a candidate from minority groups or women (or someone who fits both criteria, as Joe Biden did in 2020). Potential candidates for this role include Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina and Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders, who served as his press secretary. Another possibility in this category is Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, who could energize Hispanics already moving in Trump's direction. But to qualify, Rubio would need to change his residency to another state.Number The constitutional amendment would prohibit the election of a president and vice president from the same state.
Option 2 is the opposite of option 1: choose a candidate who reinforces your message and identity. A recent example of this is when Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton, a younger moderate Democrat from a Southern state, chose Al Gore, also a younger moderate Democrat, in 1992. A more traditional approach would be to choose a veteran politician from another wing of the party, like Michael Dukakis choosing Lloyd Bentsen in 1988. By doing the opposite, Clinton highlighted a generational contrast with incumbent President George H. W. Bush and drove home the message that his administration was trying to change the Democratic Party and the country.
If Donald Trump were to choose to go down this path, he would likely choose someone who represents the change he has made in the Republican Party, such as Senator J.D. Vance of Ohio, which would minimize conflict within his administration and give someone who shares his vision a head start in vying for the 2028 presidential nomination.
Option 3 is for Trump to choose someone he believes will help him implement his policies after he is elected. This is what Arkansas Governor Jimmy Carter did in 1976, when he chose Senator Walter Mondale as his de facto administration partner, but by choosing Mondale, he also sought to win over the liberal wing of the party. George W. Bush also chose Dick Cheney as his vice president in 2000. Cheney, who was from the small, Republican-heavy state of Wyoming, did not have much of an advantage in the election, but he had outstanding political skill and depth. Barack Obama, a young first-term senator, followed the same path, choosing veteran senator Joe Biden to handle important policy and political tasks, such as negotiating with Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell.2
In Donald Trump's case, such a choice sends two messages: first, that he is confident enough in the election to choose someone who will not contribute too much politically to the nomination, and second, that he recognizes that he needs a partner to implement a broader policy agenda than the one he brought to the White House in 2017. A prime example of such a candidate is North Dakota Governor and former presidential candidate Doug Burgum, whose popularity appears to be on the rise.3.
A final strategic option is to use the vice presidential nomination to heal divisions within the party, as Ronald Reagan did in 1980 when he chose George H.W. Bush, who famously rejected Reagan's domestic policy centerpiece, supply-side tax cuts, as “voodoo economics.” In making this choice, Reagan signaled his recognition that, as a Western candidate with outlandish views, he needed to reassure traditional factions within his party that he was not a faction candidate and that he was willing to listen to them. (His selection of Bush's campaign manager, James Baker, as his first chief of staff reinforced this message.)
Trump could do so by choosing his chief primary rival and fiercest critic, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, as his running mate. Such cases always require explanations for comments made about opponents during the primary, a long-standing distinction between accomplished politicians and aspiring newcomers.
Haley would be Trump's most surprising choice, but she represents a reality that Trump and his political advisers should not ignore: she continues to win about 20% of the vote in primaries even after she suspended her campaign. She represents a college-educated, more upper-class part of the party, living in suburban areas rather than rural or small towns, and who remains suspicious of Trump's hardline nationalist populism. So far there is little evidence that many of Haley's supporters will switch to Biden, but some may quietly withdraw from the fray and stay home on November 5th. Trump may want to insure himself against a possible fierce election in the fall. But his desire for total control and obsession with revenge would make such a move difficult, despite the political advantages.
Politically, these four options fall into two camps. Options 2 (doubling down) and 3 (governance partnership) reflect Trump's judgment that the general election is winnable, allowing him to focus on the future of his administration and his governing philosophy. In contrast, options 1 (expanding his base) and 4 (repairing divisions) signal that Trump believes the outcome is uncertain and that he needs to take a more cautious approach.
Which path will Donald Trump choose? I don't know, and he probably doesn't know either. But two things are clear. First, his choice will reveal a lot about how he values the race. Second, as a master showman who knows how to gain and maintain public attention, Trump will likely ratchet up the tension by delaying his choice as long as possible. In 2016, Trump didn't announce his choice until three days before the start of the Republican National Convention. We can expect a similar development this time around.
