RFK Jr. may have already peaked in the presidential race

CNN
—

Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is perhaps the biggest X-factor remaining in the presidential race.

If current polls align with the final results, Kennedy, a one-time Democrat who tends to be popular with Republicans, will have received the second-highest share of the vote of any independent or third-party White House candidate in the past half-century.

But can Kennedy defy the usual political pressures that drag down most nonmajor party candidates as the election approaches?

There are some signs that support for him may already have peaked.

For now, Kennedy is still garnering a significant amount of votes: In May polls by Quinnipiac University and Marquette University School of Law, he received 14% and 17%, respectively — more votes in private surveys than any third-party or independent candidate has received at this stage of the election cycle since Ross Perot in 1996.

Both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have pursued Kennedy because of his high approval ratings. Trump is likely taking note of polls that show Kennedy is slightly more likely to win the support of voters who say they are more likely to vote for the former president. Biden likely recognizes that Kennedy's supporters skew toward younger voters who traditionally lean Democratic.

The attacks on Kennedy appear to be working: Look at polls conducted by Fox News, Quinnipiac and Reuters/Ipsos, all of which have trend lines going back to the end of last year.

Those three polls have shown Kennedy's approval rating dropping by an average of five points from the first survey to the latest: Fox News sees it dropping from 15% to 11%, Quinnipiac University sees it dropping from 17% to 14% (in a poll test that includes Green Party candidate Jill Stein), and Reuters/Ipsos shows Kennedy's approval rating among registered voters dropping from 17% to 10%.

That doesn't mean you can't find polls that show Kennedy's approval rating slightly higher than it was a few months ago (see Marquette), but his long-term trends aren't good.

Perhaps more worrying for independents is what's going on under the surface: His approval ratings aren't just falling because voters are beginning to believe that supporting someone who isn't a Democrat or a Republican is a waste of votes. It means Kennedy's own popularity is declining.

Take for example two polls that asked about Kennedy, one after he announced he would run as an independent in 2023 and one last month.

A Quinnipiac University poll in May found that Kennedy's disapproval rating among likely voters had soared to 43 percent, a record high, while his favorable approval rating had fallen to 25 percent, just one point above the Quinnipiac poll's previous low. His net approval rating was minus 18 points. Kennedy had never recorded a double-digit net negative approval rating before.

Kennedy maintained significantly higher net favorability ratings than Biden and Trump throughout much of the campaign, but that's reversed in the latest Quinnipiac University poll.

A Marquette University poll showed a similar pattern: In November, Kennedy's approval rating was 38% and his disapproval rating was 38%. Today, his approval rating is 31% and his disapproval rating is 45%, his worst ever.

(Marquette found that Kennedy's favorable ratings rose by 8 points during the February primaries, while his disapproval ratings fell to 32 percent.)

Both Marquette and Quinnipiac universities show that Kennedy is more popular with Republicans than Democrats, but even there his popularity is clearly declining.

Between April and May, Kennedy's favorable rating among Republicans rose from 44% to 31% in a Quinnipiac University poll. Unfavorable ratings rose from 20% to 30%.

Kennedy's decline in popularity isn't all that surprising: The last time Trump faced off against an unpopular Democratic candidate (Hillary Clinton in 2016), Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson looked like he might become the first independent or third-party candidate since Perot to win at least 5% of the popular vote in a presidential election.

Johnson ended up dropping out late, to just above 3%, but it was still the highest approval rating for a non-major presidential candidate since Perot in 1996.

Kennedy's approval ratings have consistently been higher this year than Johnson's in 2016.

But Johnson got the Libertarian Party ballot and appeared on the ballot in all 50 states, while Kennedy is still far from being officially on the ballot in all 50 states.

So national polls showing Kennedy's high approval rating don't tell the whole story if he's not an option on many voters' ballots.

Of course, this election is not decided by the national popular vote, it's decided by the Electoral College votes of each state.

How Kennedy wins votes in six close states that Biden won in 2020 — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — will ultimately determine his role in this election. As Kennedy learned in his Nevada run, it's not always easy for an independent to get on the ballot.

Still, the election is expected to be close, especially in northern battleground states, and how many votes Kennedy takes away from Biden and Trump could be decisive.