15 Battleground Counties That Will Be Key in the 2024 Presidential Election | USA2024

Presidential elections are officially decided by the state's Electoral College, but to fully understand how the race is playing out, it's helpful to look one level down: to the counties.

U.S. News did just that through a series examining 15 battleground counties that could be key in this year's presidential election.

Eleven of the 15 counties are located in seven presidential battleground states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin), on the theory that counties located in the most competitive states will have more influence in the election. Of the remaining four counties, three are in the large states on the periphery of the race (Florida and Texas), and one is in Nebraska, which allocates a portion of its electoral votes to districts, so they fall into a category of their own.

Because political geography today is typically correlated with population density (highly populated cities and suburbs tend to be bluer, while rural areas tend to be redder), the 15 counties that make up this list probably lean a bit more Democratic. Still, the goal was to include counties of a variety of sizes and with a variety of partisan trajectories. Seven of the jurisdictions on the list are large urban-suburban counties, three are purely suburban counties, and the remaining five are centered around mid-sized cities rather than large cities.

Each county is racially, ethnically and income-wise diverse. Each is also in some degree of political transition. How that transition plays out and balances could affect who wins the 2024 presidential election.

U.S. News presents 15 key counties to watch in the 2024 presidential election, with links to in-depth profiles.

The blue-collar county, which includes Green Bay, is politically divided between urban and rural parts and leans more Republican, though Democrats are usually competitive.

The county, which includes Las Vegas, is home to nearly three-quarters of Nevada's population and has a major influence on the outcome of what is expected to be a hotly contested battleground state.

The suburban area north of Atlanta is part of another battleground state that has become increasingly racially and ethnically diverse over the past two decades, shifting from Republican to Democratic in the process.

The county, which includes Omaha, makes up a large portion of Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District and is allotted one electoral vote under state law. Unlike the rest of the state, the county has supported Democratic candidates Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden.

The county, home to the city of Erie, is a “benchmark region in a benchmark state.” No county in Pennsylvania, and perhaps the entire country, has experienced more consistent fluctuations than Erie County.

Texas remains Republican, but it is slowly becoming more Democratic. Part of the reason for this shift is suburban areas such as Fort Bend County, where two factors are driving the shift to Democrats: greater racial and ethnic diversity and improved educational attainment.

Kent County, home to Grand Rapids, is the fourth most populous county in Michigan. For decades, Kent County has voted Republican. It's President Gerald Ford's hometown and home to his presidential library. But in recent years, Kent County has drifted politically purple, and sometimes blue.

The county in northeastern Pennsylvania is important both demographically and symbolically: It's overwhelmingly blue-collar worker, a voter core to Trump's electoral base. But it's also the ancestral home of Biden, who likes to call himself “Scranton Joe” after the county's largest city.

Maricopa County is home to Phoenix and the politically charged heartland of Arizona, one of the key battleground states in the presidential election, and is home to voters from several demographic groups that both campaigns are targeting this year, including Hispanics, moderate suburban Republicans and seniors.

The heavily Hispanic county has voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in every election this century, but the trend has swung back toward Democrats under Trump: In 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Trump there by 29 points; in 2020, Biden beat Trump by just 7 points.

Tarrant County, which includes the Fort Worth portion of the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area, has been leaning Democratic in recent elections, like other densely populated areas, but the shift has not been as dramatic as in more diverse, wealthy counties.

The high-income, well-educated county, which includes the state capital, Raleigh, used to lean slightly Republican, but Democrats have generally carried Wake County by widening margins since 2008, when Obama first ran for president.

Most Nevada voters live in Clark County, which is home to Las Vegas, but the state's close elections often hinge on who wins in the battleground state of Washoe County, which is home to Reno.

The county remains Republican, but to a much lesser extent than before, and similar changes have been seen in other high-income suburban U.S. areas under Trump. The slow but steady decline of Republican support in Waukesha County is noteworthy given that Wisconsin is a close and crucial state in the presidential election.

The county, home to Detroit, is Michigan's most populous and crucial to Democrats' ability to win the state. Historically, Wayne County has voted strongly Democratic, but has been gradually gaining Republican support under the Trump administration.