All the ingredients are in place for a better than usual election cycle for third party candidates in Minnesota this November.
President Joe Biden's approval ratings are falling as he struggles to maintain the coalition that got him elected four years ago. Former President Donald Trump has drawn support from conservatives but his felony conviction has alienated some independents. Many voters are unenthusiastic about the prospect of voting for either candidate.
Plus, Minnesota has been here before.
“I voted for Jesse Ventura, but it wasn't that big a decision for me,” said Mark Frascon, 65, an Eagan resident and longtime Democrat who is supporting independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for president this fall. “Right now there are indictments and trials and legal battles between the two major parties. I'm not sure people are going to continue to vote for that.”
While third-party candidates have the potential to draw voters away from the presumptive nominees of both major parties, Kennedy and his campaign have faced the strongest opposition from Democrats who fear they could steal votes from Biden in key battleground states.
Kennedy's campaign says she meets the requirements to run in Minnesota this fall, but the Secretary of State's office is still reviewing the signatures. Green Party candidate Jill Stein and progressive activist Cornel West are working to gather the 2,000 signatures needed to run in the state.
A history of searching for alternatives
Minnesota has a long history of fielding candidates outside the two major parties. It is one of only two states in the nation to have fielded third-party candidates for president, senator and governor since 1900, and it has done so 11 times, far more than any other state, said Eric Ostermeyer, a research associate at the University of Minnesota's Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Policy, who has looked closely at third-party data.
Before merging with the Democratic Party, Minnesota's populist Farmer-Labor Party was one of the most successful third-party movements in American history. Minnesota voters sent former professional wrestler and Reform Party candidate Ventura to governorship and gave independent candidate Ross Perot nearly 24% of the vote in the 1992 presidential election.
Since then, the percentage of Minnesota voters supporting a third-party candidate for president has steadily fallen, but it increased again during the 2016 race between Trump and Hillary Clinton: More than 8% of Minnesota voters cast ballots for a third-party candidate, and Clinton beat Trump by just 1.5%.
That year, conservative third-party candidates like Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson garnered enough support to make the case that Minnesota could have been a loss for Trump, Ostermeyer said.
Biden won the state by more than 7 percentage points four years later (with about 2% of voters backing a third-party candidate), but he faces re-election this fall with a lower approval rating than in 2020.
“People are signaling their willingness to vote outside of the two-party options, and we have two very unpopular candidates,” said Stephen Shea, a political scientist and professor emeritus at Carleton University. “When you combine that well, it creates a real possibility that some of the other candidates could siphon votes and make this a dangerous fight for Biden, and it creates uncertainty.”
According to the latest Star Tribune/MPR News/KARE 11 Minnesota Poll, Biden is leading Trump by a slim 45% to 41% margin ahead of the expected general election rematch, which will be a much tougher fight than he faced in Minnesota in 2020. Seven percent of respondents said they were undecided, while 6% supported Kennedy's campaign.
Ostermeyer noted that polling support for third-party candidates tends to fall as Election Day approaches, and not everyone looking for alternatives to Biden and Trump believes there are any viable candidates among the current options.
“It would be nice if there was an independent candidate that we could accept,” said Kenneth Hess, 76, a Painesville resident and self-described independent. “I hope and pray that there will be a candidate that we can respect, who has a sense of morality and who will think about the country above political ambition.”
Hess may back someone like Democratic West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin or former Republican Rep. Liz Cheney. With no clear alternative, he is considering sitting out the race.
“It's the first time I've even considered not voting,” Hess said. “I don't want to be unpatriotic, but I don't want to be either way.”
“Don't take anything for granted”
Democrats have won Minnesota's presidential elections for more than 50 consecutive years, but the party has struggled with infighting over the Biden administration's handling of the Gaza war. About 19% of Minnesota voters voted “independent” in the Democratic presidential primary, but Seer said disgruntled Democrats might skip voting altogether rather than seek a third-party candidate.
“Whether it's on the presidential side or the Senate side, the reality is that we in the DFL are not taking anything for granted and are preparing for any potential candidate or candidates that we may have to face,” DFL Chairman Ken Martin said.
Nick Shillingford, a 40-year-old nurse from Minneapolis, is volunteering to gather signatures to put progressive scholar Cornel West on the ballot this fall before the Aug. 20 deadline. Younger voters are especially receptive to alternatives on issues like the environment and Gaza, Shillingford said.
“Young people, especially first-time voters, want something exciting, and it's certainly not Biden or Trump,” Shillingford said.
Mr. Kennedy, the nephew of former President John F. Kennedy, was a longtime Democrat who switched to being an independent for the 2024 presidential race. He spent his early career as an environmental activist and lawyer, which appealed to Mr. Frascon, a former state pollution control official, who believes Mr. Kennedy's work against corporations and the federal government makes him a true outsider candidate.
“It seems like Trump wants to come in and drain the swamp,” he said. “Kennedy actually knows where the swamp is.”
Kennedy supports limiting abortion at certain times in pregnancy and opposes vaccinations during the coronavirus pandemic, which also appeal to conservative voters. Republican Chairman David Hahn said third-party candidates appeal to small numbers of people who might not have voted at all if there was no alternative. In Kennedy's case, “the majority of his supporters are drifting away from Biden,” he said.
“If the election is close and there is a certain number of votes received, that could be enough to change the outcome.”
Star Tribune newsroom developer Tom Nehill contributed to this story.
