Top Line
The latest Reuters/Ipsos general election poll shows former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden by two points, but one in five voters is still undecided in the race.
Trump and Biden remain virtually tied, with Trump's lead in early polls declining
Key Facts
If the election were held today, Trump would beat Biden 41% to 39%, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, with a margin of error of less than three percentage points.
The Economist/YouGov poll released Thursday also showed Trump leading Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other third-party candidates by two points.
While a majority of voters — 61% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll — say Trump's Manhattan conviction last month on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records will not affect their vote, some other polls have shown signs that Trump's lead is shrinking in the wake of the verdict. For example, a Morning Consult weekly survey conducted Friday through Sunday showed Biden leading by one point, his first lead in a week-long tracking poll in a month.
A CBS/YouGov poll released Sunday found that a majority of voters (55%) said a conviction of Trump would not be a factor in their vote, and that six other issues, including the economy, crime and the border, surpassed conviction by double digits in terms of importance to voters.
According to an Associated Press-NORC poll released on June 12, roughly half (48%) of respondents, including 32% of independents and 15% of Republicans, approve of the Manhattan jury's conviction last month of President Trump on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records. Meanwhile, 29% of respondents overall disapproved and 21% were undecided.
Other polls have found that Trump has not lost much popularity since being convicted. A Times/Siena poll conducted last week found Trump leading Biden, 47% to 46%. That represents a one-point drop in Trump's approval rating and a one-point increase in Biden's approval rating in surveys of the same 2,000 voters conducted in April and May, before Trump was convicted by a Manhattan jury last month.
Big numbers
0.8, the number of percentage points by which Trump leads Biden in a two-way race, according to the RealClearPolitics average of polls, and 2.9 points if third-party candidates are included.
Points to note
In seven key battleground states likely to decide the election – Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania – which Biden won narrowly in 2020, except for North Carolina, polls have consistently shown Trump leading Biden in these states. A May Cook Political Report poll gave Trump an average lead of three points in the seven states, a May Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll gave Trump a four-point lead over Biden across battleground states, and an April New York Times/Siena/Philadelphia Inquirer poll projected Trump to win in five of the six battleground states (Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Georgia and Nevada) except Wisconsin.
Amazing facts
In such a close race, Kennedy could potentially swing the election as an independent, but it's unclear who would have the advantage. A May Emerson poll found that the addition of Kennedy Jr., West and Stein widened Trump's lead over Biden from 2 to 5 points. Kennedy received 6% support, while 10% of voters said they were undecided. A May Fox poll found that the addition of the three independents to the ballot increased Trump's lead by 2 points. A Times/Siena/Inquirer poll found that Kennedy Jr. is drawing votes from Biden's key supporters. In a five-way race, Kennedy has only 10% support in six battleground states, but he has gained 18% support among 18-29-year-olds and 14% support among Hispanic voters. And a recent Harvard CAPS/Harris poll suggests that Trump's five-point lead will remain unchanged if Kennedy Jr. is on the ballot, while an April NBC poll found Biden trailing Trump by two points in head-to-head contests but winning by two points when Kennedy Jr. or other third-party candidates are included.
Contra
Polls appear to be skewed in Trump's favor by disinterested voters who may not participate in the 2024 election, according to a New York Times analysis, which found that Biden has led among 2020 voters in the past three Times/Siena polls but trailed among registered voters overall.
tangent
Polls have consistently shown that Biden, and the Democratic Party as a whole, is losing support among key voter groups, including blacks, Latinos, and young people. A May NPR/PBS/Marist poll found that Biden is only four points ahead of Trump among younger voters under 45, and Biden leads by six points in head-to-head races with Gen Z/Millennials, but when third-party candidates are mixed in, the vote tilts in Trump's favor among those two groups (six points among Gen Z/Millennials and eight points among voters under 45). An April Times/Siena/Inquirer poll also found that Biden is tied with Trump among Hispanic voters in six battleground states (Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Nevada), but trails by four points among 18- to 29-year-olds in those states, according to the Times. Biden also appears to be losing support in Democratic strongholds such as New York. A May poll from Siena College found he led Trump in New York by 23 points in 2020, but now leads by nine points.
Main Background
Biden and Trump are poised for a historic rematch after winning their respective parties' nominations in March and finishing their primaries much earlier than previous elections. Polls show voter enthusiasm is historically low, with both candidates receiving relatively low approval ratings, below 45%. An NBC poll found that 64% of voters said they were “very interested” in this year's election, the lowest in two decades. Trump has centered his campaign on legal issues, accusing the prosecutors and judges in his criminal cases of undermining Biden's chances of winning the election at his behest, though there is no evidence to suggest this belief is true. Meanwhile, Biden has cited Trump's role in the January 6 attack on the Capitol as a threat to democracy and has slammed Trump for appointing Supreme Court justices who voted to overturn Roe v. Wade. Polls show the economy, immigration, abortion and inflation are consistently top concerns for voters, and a Times/Siena/Inquirer poll found that majorities trust Trump more than Biden on the economy, crime and handling of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but trust Biden more than Trump on abortion.
References
6 Battleground States Trump Needs to Take from Biden to Win in November (Forbes)
Poll shows RFK Jr. will hurt Trump more than Biden (Forbes)
A new poll shows Biden closing the gap on Trump in key battleground states, the latest survey to show positive signs for Biden (Forbes)
Trump vs. Biden 2024 Poll: Who will win the six states that will decide the election outcome (Forbes)
Post-Trump Conviction Polls Show Warning Signs: Majority of Independents Think Trump Should Step Down (Forbes)
