- Elon Musk has flexed his power as a political influencer in recent years.
- Who wins the White House could have a major impact on the billionaire's business.
- A political strategist told BI that Musk needs to be “careful” about what he wants in the next election.
In recent years, Elon Musk appears to have moved from casually dabbling in politics to a serious commitment to expanding his influence in Washington.
As the presidential election draws closer, it's becoming clear that there are huge stakes for Musk in who next leads the country, as the billionaire businessman continues to hint at his support for Trump.
Musk has not publicly endorsed any candidate, but Business Insider previously reported that he has bonded with other billionaires over a shared distrust of the Democratic Party and has privately discussed how to best defeat them in this year's election.
According to a recent report from The Wall Street Journal, Musk has also discussed with the Trump campaign the possibility of taking on an advisory role if former President Trump returns to the White House.
A representative for the Trump campaign declined to comment on The Wall Street Journal's report but acknowledged that Silicon Valley elites like Musk have stepped up to support Trump's reelection campaign.
“As has been widely reported and documented in many ways, many of the nation's most important leaders in technology and innovation are concerned that Biden's mismanagement of the economy and his efforts to overburden innovators with government bureaucracy and unrelenting regulation will harm our industry,” Brian Hughes, a senior adviser to the Trump campaign, told BI in a statement.
As Musk increasingly flexes his political muscle, who wins the White House could have a dramatic impact on the billionaire and his business. Here's how things could go for Musk if the Trump administration is reshuffled versus if Biden wins.
Elon under Trump
Musk previously served on a business advisory group under the Trump administration, but resigned from his position in 2017 in opposition to Trump's decision to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement.
Musk would take on a more formal role if Trump were to enter a second term, but it would be a gamble on what's best for his many multi-billion-dollar businesses, Bradley Tusk told Business Insider.
Tusk, a venture capitalist and political strategist whose consulting firm advises startups in highly regulated industries, said that if he were to advise Musk now, he would say: “You have to be really careful what you wish for, for a variety of reasons.”
Tusk said tax cuts and deregulation under a Trump administration could lead to faster growth for Tesla, X and SpaceX, especially given Trump's previous push for the creation of a Space Force. They could also mean significantly more political influence, but less market stability that Musk relies on to maintain his wealth and power.
“He could have a really big influence within the Trump administration,” Stacey Lee, a professor of law and ethics at the Johns Hopkins Carey School of Business, told the Business Interest Journal. “If you look at the traits that Trump really admires, he's popular, he has a unique management style. Those are all things that Trump really admires, and Musk does too.”
“They may have a rather strange kindred spirit in that respect,” she said.
Elon Musk Under Biden
If Biden is re-elected, Musk may not have the influence he craves, but he would have something markets and businesses rely on for strong growth: stability, Tusk said.
“Musk was just approved for a $55 billion compensation package under President Joe Biden, and so far, he's pretty well off,” Tusk said. “And now we have a choice between a president who really believes in clean energy and a president who actively hates it. So for Tesla shareholders, it's much better if Joe Biden is president. And they gave Elon $55 billion to do what's best for the company.”
But Lee told BI that a second Biden administration would be more likely to lean toward increased regulation and pro-union policies, neither of which would be very appealing to Musk as a businessman.
“Biden is very traditional on policy. He's committed to raising corporate taxes,” Lee said. “Under Trump, corporate taxes went from 35 percent to 21 percent, and now Trump is saying, 'If I'm president, I'm going to cut the tax rate to 20 percent.' That's going to make Musk happy.”
A second term for Trump could backfire for Musk
“My first instinct is probably everyone will think, 'Oh, of course, it's good for Musk under Trump,' but ultimately I think it's going to get worse,” Tusk said.
While Musk may be drawn to the allure of accumulating more power, Tusk said it was a double-edged sword in his relationship with Trump.
Tusk said Biden doesn't see Elon as a rival, perhaps not at all, but with Trump, as has happened with many of his former allies, Biden's favoritism toward Musk could suddenly reverse, making the Tesla CEO a target of his ire.
“For Trump's part, Musk needs to be careful and not get too carried away with this. It may seem tempting, but it's basically going to end badly for everybody,” Tusk said. “And the things that he cares about, the things that make him happy – attention and relevance – are the same things that make Trump happy.”
“And the only person he can't beat in a head-to-head battle is the president of the United States,” he added.
Representatives for Musk and the Biden campaign did not respond to Business Insider's requests for comment.
